FAYETTEVILLE — The Razorbacks have quite the uphill battle ahead of them, needing to sweep a pair of Arkansas vs TCU games on Monday to win the Fayetteville Regional and keep their season alive.
Not only must Arkansas win twice without losing, but it must do so against a Horned Frogs team that has already beaten them twice — in the regular season and then again Sunday — by a combined score of 38-11.
The first game is scheduled for 2 p.m. CT and will be televised on ESPNU. If the Razorbacks win that game, they’d force a winner-take-all Game 7 of the Fayetteville Regional at 8 p.m. CT.
History — beyond its two previous losses to TCU — is not on Arkansas’ side. Teams that start a regional 2-0, like the Horned Frogs, have advanced to the super regionals 77.5% of the time over the past five NCAA Tournaments.
However, that number drops to 62.9% when a team other than the host starts 2-0. Non-hosts also have to play the “if necessary” game 60% of the time when starting 2-0, compared to just 28.9% when its the 1 seed that’s undefeated going into the regional final.
As for the Arkansas baseball program, it has come through the loser’s bracket and advanced to the super regional just once in 10 tries since the current format began in 1999. That was in 2004, when it used heroics from Brady Toops and Charley Boyce to knock off Wichita State on its way to the College World Series.
What will make it particularly difficult for Arkansas to be part of the 37.1% of hosts to come through the loser’s bracket and win the Fayetteville Regional is its pitching situation.
“It’s not good,” Arkansas baseball coach Dave Van Horn said with a laugh when asked to assess his pitching options for Monday. “I mean, I don’t even know who we’re going to pitch. Normally I do and I just don’t tell you. I don’t know this time for sure. I don’t know who we’re going to pitch.”
It will almost certainly be an all-hands-on-deck type of day for Arkansas, which must find a way to piece together 18 innings if it hope to even have a chance to avoid the upset loss.
Van Horn said right-hander Brady Tygart, who threw a career-high 99 pitches Sunday night, definitely wouldn’t pitch and that right-hander Will McEntire, whose already pitched twice, would “have to talk us into it” to get back on the mound. He didn’t specifically mention him, but right-hander Austin Ledbetter likely wouldn’t be available either after throwing 87 pitches on Sunday.
