Arkansas football’s dominant performance against UAPB in the season opener was a stark rebuke of the almost universal negativity surrounding the program heading into the year.
The Razorbacks were picked to finish 14th in the newly-expanded SEC, and landed just one player on the preseason all-conference teams with defensive end Landon Jackson. Rubbing salt in the wound is the fact that head coach Sam Pittman was occupying the hottest seat in the country just a week ago – though that title now almost certainly belongs to Florida head coach Billy Napier after the Gators were chomped at home by rival Miami.
Pittman’s attitude throughout the offseason has been a hopeful one, as he has consistently reiterated that he thinks the team can exceed expectations. He even gave the team a phallic motto for the season – “embrace the Hog.”
The good news from these sour predictions is that the only way the team can go is up from there…and the Hogs got off to a perfect start against UAPB, courtesy of offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino’s relentless attack. In all reality, the Hogs’ performance against one of the worst FCS schools in the country has little bearing on the rest of the seaso – particularly with a bout against Oklahoma State on tap – but it was still encouraging for fans to see such an efficient performance.
In the weeks heading into the season opener, the mainstream preseason predictions for Arkansas’ season were pretty uniform across the board. But naturally some lesser-known media outlets, not unlike your eccentric uncle, spouted off some truly off-the-wall projections for the Hogs that merit closer inspection. From the worst bowl game in history to a borderline top-25 finish, let’s take a look at some of the wackiest fortune-cookie readings for the Razorbacks.
Birmingham Bowl of Doom for Arkansas Football
The big question of the year is whether Pittman can get the Hogs bowl eligible again this year. If he reaches six wins or more, that’s likely enough to keep his post in Fayetteville. That’s matched by ESPN’s FPI, which now projects the Hogs to win six games after their dominant opener. Anything less, and Arkansas might be aboard the coaching carousel this offseason.
College Football News predicted the former to come true for the Razorbacks with a 6-6 finish. Their reward for their hard fought path to bowl eligibility? Quite possibly the worst bowl matchup ever conceived. The outlet predicts Arkansas to be placed in the Birmingham Bowl against Boston College, who they also have finishing 6-6.
First off, the location is horrendous. The other lower-tier SEC bowl tie-ins give you the options of taking trips to Florida or cities like Nashville or Memphis. But no…Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Ala., one of the worst bowl venues in the country, is the predicted stage for Arkansas’ postseason.
Second off, the opponent. The Hogs have never played Boston College, which would add an interesting wrinkle to the mix. But the Eagles are far from a juggernaut, and are definitely not a school that is passionate about football in any sense of the word. Hell, they can barely hold their own in basketball these days and nobody in these parts cares about their ice hockey prestige. BC already has one of the worst attendance marks in the ACC – it’s foolish to expect them to travel nearly 1,200 miles to the Deep South for this bowl game.
The Eagles are likely to be on the receiving end of a beatdown on Monday against a pissed off Florida State team that was upset by Georgia Tech in a week zero clash in Ireland. First-year head coach Bill O’Brien, formerly of notoriety as Alabama’s offensive coordinator, will have his hands full with the Seminoles.
If Arkansas is able to pick up a road win in Stillwater or Auburn in the next few weeks, it will set the Hogs on the right track towards bowl eligibility. But Razorback Nation will have to hope that if they do end up reaching the postseason, it’s a better setup than College Football News’ horrific projection.
The dismal concrete eyesore that is Protective Stadium would be mostly empty, only filled up with the most passionate Razorback fans willing to spend their holidays in Alabama.
RJ Young High on the Hogs
Fox Sports analyst RJ Young has taken an opposite stance from the rest of the national media with a bold take on the Razorbacks in the other direction. Before the season, he took a stab at ranking all 134 FBS teams heading into the season, and placed Arkansas at – drumroll, please – 29th.
Oh boy. I think you’d still be hard-pressed to even find a Razorback fan that seriously thinks Arkansas will finish the season just outside the top 25. While the nearly perfect game against UAPB was heartening, there is still a lot of skepticism about whether they can deliver on the road starting with Arkansas vs Oklahoma State on Saturday. Finishing just out of the Top 25 would require the Hogs to not only reach bowl eligibility, but to put up around eight regular season wins. It’s far from impossible, but it’s certainly uh…optimistic.
An 8-4 regular season would equal the Hogs’ best mark under Pittman, and require them to go .500 or better in conference play, depending on whether or not they beat Oklahoma State on Saturday. Arkansas’ performance against UAPB on Thursday had Young feeling good about his prediction, despite the gap in skill level between the two sides.
“I realize that UAPB is not indicative of the kind of competition Arkansas will face this season,” he said on his Friday show.. “However, if we were looking for the goods, Taylen Green, Ja’Quinden Jackson, Luke Hasz and Landon Jackson provided the goods.”
Young’s preseason prediction has Arkansas finishing 11th in the SEC, ahead of Auburn, Florida, South Carolina, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. The Razorbacks slot in one spot behind Kentucky.
Young’s Optimism vs. Arkansas Media Projections
That projection is more bullish than most Arkansas media outlets are about their own program.
John Nabors predicted a 7-5 finish, with key wins over Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and Ole Miss. The Rivals staff over at HawgBeat had wide-ranging predictions, with Daniel Fair matching Young’s optimism and projecting an 8-4 record with the other three writers predicting a 6-6 or 5-7 record. That’s in line with Jackson Fuller from the Southwest Times Record, who went with a 6-6 prediction.
I suppose that makes me the pessimist of the group, as I predicted a repeat of the 4-8 mark the Hogs posted in 2023.
Feel free to throw tomatoes at me, but I really don’t think the schedule is set up favorably for the Hogs this season. The first home game isn’t until week three, and the first conference clash in Razorback Stadium isn’t until October. Seven of Arkansas’ 12 opponents are ranked in the preseason AP poll. Add in to that the pressure cooker of media attention surrounding the program, and it will be hard for the locker room to stay focused if things start going south.
That tough road starts early on Saturday against Oklahoma State. The Pokes return quarterback Alan Bowman and superstar running back Ollie Gordon II. They also tout one of the nation’s most experienced offensive lines, and return 10 starters on defense from a team that reached the Big 12 Championship Game last season. All of that combined with a hostile, sold-out crowd at Boone Pickens Stadium makes things very difficult for the Razorbacks.
National Media’s Head-Scratching Juncaj Prediction
Maybe the relative optimism of the national media is just coming from a lack of knowledge of the program. It sounds cruel and twisted, but nobody knows a team better than their own fans and media – for better or worse.
Most of the time, fans are outraged that their team is being underrated, but a certain projection from College Football Network might be a rare case where even Arkansas fans admit their player is being overrated.
Defensive end Anton Juncaj was tabbed as the national preseason newcomer and transfer of the year by the outlet. Uh…what?
The Albany transfer came to Arkansas with an eye-catching PFF grade of 91.6, though it came at the FCS level. Expecting him to replicate that in the SEC is a stretch. But don’t take it from me, take it from the coaching staff – Juncaj is cross-listed with Nico Davillier as a starter at defensive end. Against UAPB, he registered just one assisted tackle and zero sacks.
That’s right, the guy battling for a starting job on the projected third-worst team in the SEC is apparently the best transfer in the country. No disrespect to Juncaj, who’s a talented player, but this is a classic case of taking one metric to heart and not diving any deeper.
Arkansas vs Oklahoma State a Litmus Test for Hogs
The Razorbacks’ first true test will come on Saturday against the Cowboys – and they’ll have a chance to ball up my record prediction and throw it in the trash before we even reach conference play.
The Pokes are ranked No. 17 in the preseason AP poll, and boast a true Heisman Trophy contender in running back Gordon. He’ll be raring to go against the Hogs, as he did not receive any disciplinary action for an offseason drunk driving arrest. Rather than even slap his star on the wrist, head coach Mike Gundy instead admitted he himself has driven drunk 1,000 times before.
I guess you could have guessed that by the mullet. He’s a man! He’s 40!
Anyways, the Cowboys handled business in week one against South Dakota State, widely regarded as the top FCS team in the country. They snapped the Jackrabbits’ 29-game win streak in a 44-20 victory. It was far from a 70-0 rout, but OSU got it done.
Young said since Arkansas already got its hands dirty on Thursday, Razorback fans could take the opportunity to get some intel on the Cowboys by watching their season opener.
“If you’re an Arkansas fan looking at Oklahoma State going, ‘What does South Dakota State do well? Because it’s a very fundamentally sound football team, and you are a more talented football team,” he said. “So if you take some of their fundamentals and lay it on top of what you do at Arkansas, you’re in a good spot here.”
Picking up those scouting duties, there are some weak spots in the Pokes’ chaps the Hogs can go after next week. Gordon reached the 100-yard mark on the day, but it took him 27 carries to do so on an inefficient 3.9 yards per rush. Defensive coordinator Travis Williams will have it down in his notepad to mimic some of the schemes the Jackrabbits threw at them to slow down the star tailback.
SDSU was able to put up 388 yards of offense, almost matching OSU’s 394 total yards, and averaged a respectable 4.4 yards per carry on the ground. Petrino will surely be digging through the film this week to find more holes in the Oklahoma State defense.
Arkansas will have the chance to vindicate Young’s predictions with a victory on Saturday, and even prove many of their own fans and sportswriters wrong by clearing its first hurdle.
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See more on Arkansas vs Oklahoma State here:
Full segment of RJ Young’s take on Arkansas vs. UAPB:
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