The oddsmakers have Arkansas a 3-point ‘dog at Missouri this weekend. In an SEC road game forecast to be played in snow and bone-cold wind, that might as well be a tossup. Hang onto the ball, grind out a couple of long drives, hit a few close-range field goals, and the Hogs can begin dreaming of warmer climes for December.
Well … somewhat warmer. With their cruise-control win over Louisiana Tech over the weekend, Sam Pittman’s Razorbacks are bowl-eligible for the fourth time in his five seasons. That’s the good news. The less-good news is, even a win in Columbia would leave them at 7-5 for the year and in a logjam for mid-tier bowls in Texas and Tennessee. The Hogs can’t even finish in the top half of the SEC. But they can break Missouri’s heart, leap the Tigers in the standings, and make a case for a proper road-trip destination for their bowl, even if a trip to Florida at this point looks unlikely.
So where is Arkansas heading for its bowl game? We’re relying on national media to make their educated guesses, and then ranking those options purely from a fan perspective, which is to say, subjectively and with capricious prejudice.
This is the final look ahead to the possibilities awaiting the Hogs. The options are less attractive, on balance, than the last time we took this survey. Some of that owes to the emerging parity in the SEC. Some of that is just the way life goes when you perform exactly to average expectations. The pundits are probably assuming the Hogs can’t pull out a W in the wintery crud this weekend. But, who knows, things could get a bit more festive (¿Gasparilla Bowl, quizás?) if Arkansas manages to ride a win streak into bowl selection season. We’ll know the full shake-out by Dec. 8 at the latest.
Worst-Case Scenarios for Arkansas Football
Arkansas vs Arkansas State in the 68 Ventures Bowl
Sports Illustrated
The SEC has at least 13 bowl-eligible teams this year, a preposterous number that threatens to send a 6-6 Arkansas team to the margins. This was the most marginal scenario national media are proposing right now, and it’s a doozy: sending the Hogs to a no-name bowl game against a perfectly ordinary Arkansas State squad whom the Ragin Cajuns recently hammered by 36 points.
The game takes place the day after Christmas, the high temp at the beach will be like 60 degrees, and no one outside the state of Arkansas will notice unless the Hogs let the Red Wolves keep it close (or blow the game completely).
These teams are already scheduled to meet for the first time next season on Sept. 7 at War Memorial; a bowl matchup would steal that juice from Little Rock. Having to motivate his team to get excited for Mobile and the Red Wolves would be Sam Pittman’s final punishment for losing at Oklahoma State.
Arkansas vs North Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl
ESPN
Nothing against the fine city of Birmingham, a sneaky-good food and drink destination where everyone has a PhD in college football. But for Arkansas fans, this would amount to a long drive east for a midday Friday game (Dec. 27) against a Tar Heels team with handsome uniforms and not much else to stir interest.
The Heels won their opener at Minnesota and went on to accomplish not much else all year. The most entertaining final score of the season might have been their 70-50 loss to James Madison, which currently sits at a commanding, uh, third place in the, um, Sun Belt. North Carolina actually outgained the founding father 616-611 in that game, but committed five turnovers and, well, comedy ensued.
One subplot in this matchup would be seeing Jacolby Criswell, who transferred back to UNC after a single forgettable, 143-yards-passing season at Arkansas (which itself followed three similar seasons at UNC). The former Morrilton quarterback has blossomed into a so-so starter in this, his senior season.
The Hogs have played well this year against teams with mediocre quarterbacks. Its other drawbacks notwithstanding, this matchup gives Arkansas a great chance to close the season with a win against a Power 5 opponent — and potentially to close out the career of legendary UNC head coach Mack Brown, if he’s allowed to coach the bowl after already being fired.
Frisco Bowl vs. West Virginia
Saturday Down South
As a game experience, you could do much worse. Frisco is a mid-sized city on the north edge of Dallas’ great sprawl, just a five-hour drive from Fayetteville or Little Rock, hosting a self-titled bowl game in its 20,000-seat MLS stadium. Granted, this would all take place on an utterly cockamamie day: Dec. 17, i.e., the Tuesday a week before Christmas Eve. This would be a gift to all the UA grads in Dallas, and to anyone who finds the prospect of half-empty stadiums for random bowl games spiritually deflating.
For their part, the Mountaineers would be a perfectly serviceable matchup. West Virginia has the most wins of any Division I team the Hogs have never played (aside from Notre Dame, an Arkansas opponent next season). And the Mountaineers aren’t much to look at this year — they’re a middling Big 12 team that hasn’t pulled any surprises all season — but they’re still a brand name in the sport, and the rare Power 5 school that, like Arkansas, acts as the lone de facto pro team for its state. You gotta wish them suckers well.
(Of note, maybe, the Sporting News projects this matchup happening at the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl, which is held at TCU’s stadium, in Fort Worth. Advantage: It would be on Friday, Dec. 27. Disadvantage: Everything else about the game.)
Another Trip to Memphis?
Arkansas vs Baylor in the Liberty Bowl
ESPN
Neither the destination nor the opponent should surprise Arkansas fans, but if ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura is correct and this is your Dec. 27 date, it’s going to be a tough out for the Hogs. Baylor’s the slight favorite over Kansas this weekend; if the Bears win, they’ll be coming into bowl season with a six-game winning streak, including a W over the teams’ only common opponent (Oklahoma State). A streaking, hot, yet still unranked opponent isn’t exactly an ideal bowl partner, even if they are an old Southwest Conference rival.
And, look, apologies to folks in the eastern half of the state, but I shudder every time the Hogs accept a Liberty Bowl bid, even in the best of circumstances. These games have tended to match underperforming and under-motivated Arkansas teams against B-list opponents with something to prove. Recall the OT nailbiter against East Carolina in 2010, the blessedly straightforward win against Kansas State in 2016, and the least-watchable 55-53 triple-OT game in the history of the sport against Kansas two years ago.
If it has to be Memphis, let’s hope it’s not against Baylor. And if it has to be Baylor, let’s hope it’s not in Memphis.
Liberty Bowl vs. Kansas State
CBS
This matchup would mark the third against Kansas State in the Hogs’ last seven bowl games, and that alone takes some of the sheen off this potential meeting. But the Wildcats are legit this year: If they can bump off Iowa State in their season finale, they’ll definitely come into the bowl season ranked and battle-tested. They were still a dark horse playoff contender just two weeks ago. And they have a Doak Walker semifinalist in DJ Giddens, an electric back who averages 6.7 yards per carry.
So the game does have some potential juice. Remember, too, that last year Kansas State won the internet by devouring a door-sized Pop Tart mascot after winning the Pop Tarts Bowl. This doesn’t have the verve of a true rivalry game — seriously, who would want Kansas State as a rival? — but it might be the Hogs’ only chance to knock off a ranked team in a bowl.
Liberty Bowl vs. TCU
247Sports
Last anyone noticed the Horned Frogs, they existed mostly as a chalk outline. Georgia’s 65-7 obliteration of TCU’s Cinderella team in the national title game was so demoralizing, the entire 2022 season felt like a flop. The beatdown brought back memories of the 1996 Fiesta Bowl, in which No. 2 Florida let No. 1 Nebraska roll up 62 points and everyone knew, definitively and forever, who was best in the country that year. Florida at least returned to win the national title a year later. TCU hasn’t beaten a ranked team in the two years since that mauling, and have settled into the middle of the Big 12.
The Frogs get the nod as the more exciting Liberty Bowl matchup, though, partly because of their recent successes, and because it’s always fun to see former Southwest Conference rivals in the wild. TCU has played Arkansas 68 times and counting (nice), with Arkansas winning 43 of those games. Their mascots rhyme. They both have strong offenses and wobbly defenses. When Arkansas beats TCU, it irks people in Dallas. If this is the card Arkansas draws, the Hogs can’t much complain.
It’s also a chance to see the nation’s 26th-best offense in action, led by no less than Kendal Briles. The Frogs also have former Arkansas running backs coach Jimmy Smith on staff and former running back Dominique Johnson on the roster.
And, look, to be fair, the Liberty Bowl is not without its charms. Christmas and New Year’s fall on Wednesdays this year, making the 27th, the Friday between them, the fulcrum of a potential 10-day weekend, and one helluva date to schedule a trip to Beale Street.
The No. 1 Choice for Arkansas Football
Texas Bowl vs. Baylor
The Athletic, Action Network, USA Today
New Year’s Eve in the Texans’ stadium is the biggest, brightest platform left for the Hogs to capture this season, if the pundits are correct — and the fact that three of them see the Hogs in Houston is a good sign. This is looking like the best-case for Arkansas, even if Baylor isn’t exactly the sexiest of opponents.
But let’s talk about this old Southwest Conference foe who, like TCU, has managed to outclass the Hogs for much of the past decade. The Bears have notched five top-15 finishes since 2013, none more impressive than the 2021 season that saw them beat Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl and finish at No. 5 in the country. They’ve been mostly forgettable since then, and this year have played pretty much exactly to expectations, losing to every ranked opponent while handling business otherwise.
On paper, this could wind up being an oddly even matchup. The latest Sharp College Football rankings slot the Bears at No. 31 and the Hogs at No. 32. (In the all-time series, Arkansas holds a 34-31-2 edge.) They both allow about 25 points a game, which Baylor outscores Arkansas modestly, 34 points a game to 31. Arkansas has played a tougher schedule but has one more loss to show for it.
Where the game could get interesting: Arkansas is (almost incomprehensibly) No. 9 in the country in total yards per game, despite not having a top-40 scoring offense under offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino. The Hogs, you will be shocked to learn, are certainly capable of putting more on the scoreboard than they have at times this year, and Baylor’s defense is softer than most of what Arkansas has seen in SEC play.
Also, these programs know each other with some intimacy, despite not having played since 1991: The Bears have former Hogs Ketron Jackson and Snaxx Johnson on their team, while Arkansas hired Eric Mateos to coach o-line after three years at Baylor in the same position.
This would be in many ways a right-sized game for the Hogs: winnable, losable, and a potentially gratifying end to a year that has seen too many old rivals – and familiar faces – whack Arkansas. And there would definitely be stakes. No one’s idea of a good holiday weekend involves driving to Texas just to hand Baylor a W.
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Better bowl positioning isn’t the only thing at stake for Arkansas football this weekend:
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More coverage of Arkansas football from BoAS…
