FAYETTEVILLE — Arkansas may have already clinched a bowl bid with its sixth win last weekend, but there is still a lot at stake for Sam Pittman and his team Saturday afternoon.
With a win over Missouri, the Razorbacks would finish the regular season with a 7-5 overall record that includes a 4-4 mark in SEC play. That would give the team momentum as it begins what will be a critical offseason for Pittman, who’s wrapping up his fifth season at the helm.
“I think 7-5, 4-4 in the league and beating a top-25 team, a top-five team, I think that would really help us in recruiting and recruiting through the portal,” Pittman said earlier this week. “Obviously, we’re going to a bowl either way, but I think it would be big, big to get that win, so we’re gonna try like hell to get that done.”
From a more tangible perspective, beating the Tigers would also significantly impact Arkansas’ bowl destination.
Arkansas Football Bowl Game Possibilities
As things currently stand, the Razorbacks are one of 13 bowl-eligible SEC teams. That number could grow to 14, but would require an Auburn upset over Alabama in the Iron Bowl.
The College Football Playoff gets the first pick of those teams, but after the conference cannibalized itself last weekend, it now looks like it may get only three schools in the 12-team field instead of the four widely projected much of the season.
That’s significant because the remaining schools would go through the SEC’s bowl selection process. The Citrus Bowl in Orlando gets the first pick, followed by the conference’s “pool of six” bowls:
- Texas Bowl (Houston)
- Las Vegas Bowl (Las Vegas)
- Music City Bowl (Nashville, Tenn.)
- Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, Fla.)
- Liberty Bowl (Memphis, Tenn.)
- ReliaQuest Bowl (Tampa, Fla.)
Assuming three teams make the CFP and the “first team out” heads to the Citrus Bowl, there’d still be five teams currently with better records than Arkansas for the “pool of six” bowls. Of that group, only LSU (7-4) could finish with the same record as the Razorbacks.
It’s hard to see Arkansas jumping the Tigers in the pecking order, so for the purpose of this exercise, that leaves only one spot in the “pool of six” for four teams currently at 6-5, with a fifth looming at 5-6. Here’s a look at those teams and who they play this weekend:
- Arkansas (at Missouri)
- Florida (at Florida State)
- Oklahoma (at LSU)
- Vanderbilt (vs. Tennessee)
The Gators are a heavy favorite to beat lowly Florida State (2-9), but the other four — including Arkansas — are underdogs this weekend. To even have a shot at one of those better bowls, the Razorbacks likely need to win Saturday.
Otherwise, it could get sent to the Birmingham Bowl in Birmingham, Ala., or the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa, Fla., which get the next two picks among SEC bowl-eligible teams. Beyond that, the Razorbacks would be at the mercy of going wherever there’s an open spot. Three years ago, that led to Missouri facing Army in the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, Texas.
What’s at Stake for Sam Pittman
While fans may need to decide whether or not to spend Christmas in Birmingham, the Razorbacks’ bowl destination is even more significant to Sam Pittman.
The bowl must be against either a Power Four or ranked Group of Five team in order for it to count toward the incentive-based raises built into his contract.
Each of the “pool of six” bowls are affiliated with Power Four conferences, but the Birmingham Bowl and Gasparilla Bowl are both paired with the American.
With one more win — either against Missouri on Saturday or in the bowl, assuming it’s not an unranked Group of Five team — Pittman would trigger another automatic $250,000 raise, like the one he earned in 2022. That’d increase his annual salary to $5.5 million through 2027.
If the Razorbacks get to eight wins by winning both of their remaining games, assuming the bowl meets that stipulation, Pittman would get a $500,000 raise to $5.75 million.
Three years remain on his contract, so one win would essentially be worth an additional $750,000 over the life of his deal, while two wins would double that ($1.5 million).
It’s also worth noting that Pittman has already earned the automatic one-year extension built into his contract. That happened with the seven-win 2022 season. Contrary to a viral tweet from the popular college football website CoachesHotSeat, there was only one such extension in his deal.
What it Means for Pittman’s Buyout
Those details are important when it comes to a potential buyout if the Razorbacks choose to move on from Sam Pittman following next season.
Not only would a seventh or eighth win increase his salary, and in turn increase his buyout, but it’d also give him a significant cushion when it comes to the percentage of what Arkansas would owe him.
Pittman’s unique buyout structure includes a clause that dictates it is determined by the Razorbacks’ winning percentage. If his record, since the 2021 season, is under .500, they owe just 50% of his remaining contract. That increases to 75% if he’s won at least half of his games since 2021.
If Arkansas loses both of the remaining games this season, Pittman’s salary would remain the same and his buyout would drop to 50% with a 5-7 or worse record next year. With one more win, he’d get a $250,000 raise and would have to finish 4-8 or worse for his buyout to drop to 50%. With two more wins, he’d get a $500,000 raise and would have to finish 3-9 or worse for his buyout to drop.
Here’s a table that calculates his buyout given the different scenarios:
NOTE: The years of Pittman’s contract start on Jan. 1, so a firing at the end of the regular season would likely still include about a month of next year. For simplicity’s sake, we are only calculating the buyout based on the final two years of his contract. The amounts would be slightly larger depending on when the hypothetical firing occurs. We are also assuming this year’s bowl game will be against a Power Four or ranked Group of Five team, which – as laid out above – isn’t necessarily a guarantee.
| 2025 Record –> 2024 Finish –V | 3-9 or worse | 4-8 | 5-7 | 6-6 or better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | $5.25 million | $5.25 million | $5.25 million | $7.875 million |
| 1-1 | $5.5 million | $5.5 million | $8.25 million | $8.25 million |
| 2-0 | $5.75 million | $8.625 million | $8.625 million | $8.625 million |
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For more on Arkansas’ potential bowl destinations, go here:
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