A happy life requires both practicality and passion. Lacking the former leads to bouts of overwhelming fancy which, when not fulfilled, have the ability to turn into depression. Lacking the latter makes one too cautious and flat out dull.
Not that Jane Austen wrote “To wish is to hope and to hope is to expect” about sports. There were no organized leagues of any sport during her lifetime. But the quote from “Sense and Sensibility” and the novel’s moral remain well-suited to all walks of life here more than 200 years later.
Arkansas Fans and the Razorbacks Are Just Like a Romance Novel, Anyway
Arkansas fans can be especially deficient in the sense department. Not all Arkansas fans, mind you. But year after year, many in the local influencer and media scene predict Razorbacks wins totals two and three games greater than what the team ultimately achieves. These predictions rub off on the rank-and-file fan who then projects a knowledge deeper than s/he actually has in reserve and a damning of the coach, players and program result when the threshold is not met. Either that, or downright melancholy, is often the result.
One can’t easily say Arkansas fans lack passion, though. The uptick in fervency is what leads to the plummeting of practicality. And unfortunately, this year, such a trait is peeking out from the covers again, ready to strike and lead to yet another examination of self.
Arkansas is 3-1 at the one-third mark of the 2024 season. The lone loss – to Oklahoma State in Week 2 – looks great on paper, too, with the Razorbacks falling in double-overtime to a Top-20 team. An unimpressive win over Alabama-Birmingham followed, then another, slightly more dignified Saturday against Auburn in both teams’ Southeastern Conference opener. Such results have the Mariannes of the fan base giddy with hope, allowing themselves to expect a Hogs’ defeat of Texas A&M in Week 5 and, in turn, even bigger things.
Someone Out There is Picking Arkansas For Eight Wins
Victory at JerryWorld in Arlington is not out of the question and is a real possibility. Expectation of a win, however, that is perhaps a bridge too far. The lines in Las Vegas still have the Aggies favored by almost a touchdown. Arkansas has only beaten Texas A&M once since 2011. Most of those seasons during which the Aggies won were seasons their fans would consider the year a disappointment.
The Razorbacks aren’t worried about disappointment. They suffered nearly as much of that as can be handled in the 2023 season. Arkansas football Sam Pittman knows he may be coaching for his job, his future. Offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino wants to prove he has plenty left in the tank, as well. Even after a season in which the Hogs were rarely, to use Pittman’s oft-said phrase, ready, few think Arkansas will be casual on Saturday. A win could give the team a Top-25 ranking heading into Week 6.
Then comes the sensibility. “We’re a Top-25 team. Anyone is beatable.” Such thinking would self-rationalize the eight-win pick and an eight-win path.
Realistically, and more importantly, it would set the stage for a six-win season and a bowl. And unlike the last six-win regular season and subsequent bowl in 2022, this one would feel good going into things.
Path to Bowl-dom
As it stands now, Arkansas will almost certainly get to the five-win mark. Louisiana Tech, a team whose lone win so far came against FCS mid-tier Nicholls State by eight points is all but a lock, barring a repeat of 2012 when Arkansas stumbled against a similarly talented Louisiana-based team. And Mississippi State appears clearly to be the 15th-best team in a 16-team conference. Wins in each of those and the five wins are set in stone. But to gain bowl qualification, a sixth is required.
Four games remain against teams currently ranked in the top 11. Texas is No. 1 in the country. Tennessee, the team the Razorbacks play the week after Texas A&M, is fifth in the AP poll released today. Ole Miss is sixth. And Missouri is 11th after the Tigers dropped four spots after struggling against that 16th-best team in the SEC: Vanderbilt. That leaves two teams for the Razorbacks to pick up one win (again, we’re working under the assumption of victory against MSU and Tech). Or three, if you’re under the belief Missouri won’t be a clean favorite playing at home. From the vantage point of September, that seems hard to imagine given the Tigers have owned the series for the better part of the decade and spent the first three weeks inside the Top 10.
Two of the more winnable games on Arkansas’ slate are familiar foes. Texas A&M and Arkansas date back to the Southwest Conference days and play in the Southwest Classic. LSU and Arkansas still play for the Golden Boot. They are, perhaps, the top two teams Razorbacks fans 50-and-younger would label as the school’s football rivals. And, yes, both are legitimately beatable.
If Arkansas keeps improving to to the point where it can beat both LSU and Texas A&M, then it would not be far-fetched to imagine a scenario where it topples one of Ole Miss, Texas and Tennessee. But that’s getting ahead of ourselves.
Is Arkansas Good Enough to Take Advantage?
Let’s go back to LSU for a minute. A lot of the anxiety about the Bayou Bengals comes from their recent success and, absolutely, the Tigers are not nearly as good as they were last year. But we’re still talking about a team ranked No. 14 in the country and whose one loss came by just a touchdown to the now No.-13 team in Southern California. Their 78th-ranked defense, though, suggests issues on that side of the ball, especially now that All-American linebacker Harold Perkins will miss the rest of the season. Whether Arkansas builds a passing game good enough to take advantage of the Tigers’ No. 96 rank in passing defense remains to be seen.
The better bet is, in fact, Texas A&M. The Aggies lost their opener to Notre Dame by 10 points and have ripped off three straight wins, but they beat a mediocre Florida team by 13 and a Mid-American Conference Bowling Green by six in the last two weeks. Gettable, we call that.
Of course, Arkansas may well be mediocre, too. Locally, though, we tend to look at our favorite team’s close wins as fighting through it while looking at others’ close wins as struggles, a script easily flipped. Saturday isn’t a make-or-break game for the Razorbacks in the same sense UAB and even Auburn were. Plenty of chances remain after Texas A&M. But considering what those chances are – Volunteers, Tigers, Rebels, Longhorns and CoMo Tigers – sense needs to come into play a bit more than sensibility.
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