If Arkansas ultimately ends up having a successful football season, which could be considered winning 7 regular season games or pulling off a few key upsets in a 6-6 campaign, Taylen Green will have quite a lot of scores to settle with regards to the media.
For whatever reason, so far this offseason, Green hasn’t seemed to impress anyone outside of the state of Arkansas other than this NFL scout. That’s despite him being a highly sought after commodity in the transfer portal and the fact offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino has been widely hailed as an offensive savant and sort of quarterback guru.
It’s not just the more traditional media outlets and influencer-types getting into the preseason polls and rankings these days, of course. A lot of fantasy sports operators want to drum up business in their industry, too. One such operator, Prize Picks, recently released their 2024 SEC Quarterback passing prop over/under yardage totals:
Of the 12 quarterbacks that they were sure would be a full-time starter in the conference listed, Green was dead last at a projected 2,050.5 total, 150 yards behind next closest in Kentucky signal caller Brock Vandagriff. He is almost certainly getting docked for having not played at this level before.
Not surprisingly, the quarterbacks at the top of the list are incumbent starters. Georgia’s Carson Beck had the highest total at 3,250.5, with Missouri’s Brady Cook and Oklahoma’s Jackson Arnold deadlocked for second at 2,900.5.
Why Taylen Green Should Hit the Over
Taylen Green could have a pedestrian year by pretty much any available metrics or standards and go well over 2,050 passing yards.
It doesn’t take a stats guru to find out that Green would hit the over by averaging just 171 passing yards over a 12-game campaign. Arkansas football fans are hoping that Green could throw for that in the first half – heck, maybe even the first quarter – of the season opener at the end of the month in Little Rock against UA-Pine Bluff.
Here’s what the other quarterbacks would have to average, over a 12-game regular season, to hit the over on their passing yards:
- Carson Beck (Georgia): 270.9
- Brady Cook (Missouri): 241.8
- Jackson Arnold (Oklahoma): 241.8
- Quinn Ewers (Texas): 237.6
- Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss): 212.6
- Graham Mertz (Florida): 212.6
- Nico Iamaleava (Tennessee): 212.6
- Connor Weigman (Texas A&M): 204.3
- Blake Shapen (Mississippi State): 204.3
- Jalen Milroe (Alabama): 200.1
- Brock Vandagriff (Kentucky): 183.4
- Taylen Green (Arkansas): 170.9
Obviously the going will get tougher the next week at Oklahoma State and a couple weeks after that when SEC play begins Sept. 21 on the Plains at Auburn. But Petrino knows well the trials by fire awaiting his young quarterback and is going to put Green in situations to succeed through the air.
It seems like everyone is basing Green’s projected totals off Arkansas’ historically bad offense from a year ago and the fact Green’s numbers weren’t eye-popping at Boise State in a weaker conference. Plus, although Arkansas’ offensive line is supposed to be better with transfers like Fernardo Carmona and Addison Nichols, there is some warranted “I’ll believe it when I see it” attitude around how much better against formidable SEC defenses they will actually be.
Look at what Petrino was able to do in just one offseason when he took over as the Arkansas football coach the first time around. He turned Casey Dick from an afterthought into an actual pocket passer.
Dick’s numbers in 2007 (albeit in a more run-dominated scheme with the luxury of riding Darren McFadden and Felix Jones): 150 completions out of 262 attempts for 1,695 yards.
Dick’s numbers in 2008: 205 for 357 for 2,586 yards, which included being benched for two games. Had he started and played in those games, he would’ve likely doubled his output from the previous season, although he threw five less touchdowns and four more interceptions.
That could be chalked up to his offensive playmakers almost exclusively being freshmen, except for sophomore D.J. Williams and junior Michael Smith.
Bobby Petrino Quarterbacks in the Modern Era
In fact, one can look at every FBS quarterback that Petrino has employed as a head coach or coordinator since 2007 and he has had only one full-time starter who has ever thrown for less than 200 yards per game in a season.
- Ryan Mallett in two seasons threw for an average of 288 yards/gm.
- Tyler Wilson in one year threw for 279 yards/gm.
- Brandon Doughty at WKU: 238 yards/gm.
- Will Gardner at Louisville: 208 yards/gm.
- Lamar Jackson in three seasons at Louisville: 235 yards/gm average.
- Jawon Pass at Louisville: 178 yards/gm.
- Max Johnson & Connor Weigman at A&M combined: 202.5 yards/gm.
Therefore, the safe bet is that Green should be able to eclipse the 200-yard per game window rather easily, assuming he is injury-free and the offensive line is no longer a sieve against opposing defensive lines.
In 2015, the year before Jackson won the Heisman Trophy at Louisville, he ran for around half as many yards (960) as he threw for (1,840). The 6-foot-6 Green will definitely be counted on to use his legs to extend plays or when things break down, so this could be a similar split this season depending on how defenses prepare for him.
Either way, an experienced receiving corps – which, interestingly, includes a Casey Dick-coached product in Isaiah Sategna, as well as projected starters Andrew Armstrong and Tyrone Broden – and a group of sure-handed tight ends that includes Luke Hasz, Var’Keyes Gumms and Ty Washington will only help Green in the aerial assault Petrino chooses to employ.
The opportunity is there for Green and the Arkansas offense to not only silence the doubters within the state, but finally make some believers within the national media and bookmakers, kind of like KJ Jefferson was able to do in 2021.
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