Taylen Green’s stock is at an all-time high after a career-best performance in Arkansas’ blowout win over Mississippi State a weekend ago.
The redshirt junior completed 23 of 29 passes for 314 yards and five touchdowns, plus added 79 yards and another score – thanks to a nifty juke move – on the ground.
Green’s stellar showing down in Starkville earned him a PFF grade of 94.0, tops among all Power Four quarterbacks in Week 9. ESPN’s total QBR gave him a score of 90.4, good for ninth in the FBS. The SEC also took notice, handing the rising star SEC Offensive Player of the Week honors.
The Boise State import is just the fifth Razorback to account for six touchdowns in a single game. Brandon Allen did it twice, including a school-record seven back in 2015 against the Dak Prescott-led Mississippi State Bulldogs. KJ Jefferson, Ryan Mallett and Madre Hill have also reached the six-score mark in an Arkansas uniform.
Has Taylen Green Reached the Ceiling?
Many fans have probably already seen their expectations for Taylen Green surpassed. After all, it’s his first season playing in a power conference and Green has already had a statistically better season than any he had at Boise State.
It’s not just fans who were skeptical of him, either. Before the season, Prize Picks set an over/under for Green’s passing yards at 2,050.5, a number that has already been eclipsed through eight games in 2024.
After some initial struggles with accuracy, Green has flourished in his first season in the Bobby Petrino system, tallying 2,056 passing yards and 395 more on the ground, complemented by 16 total touchdowns.
With four games left in the season, the question is no longer whether or not Taylen Green will be a good quarterback. The new question is how Green’s stats will look by the end of the season, and where might those numbers stack up against some Arkansas greats.
Using basic math, one can easily find that Green is on pace to finish the regular season with 3,084 passing yards and 593 rushing yards, which would be 3,677 total yards. If those numbers hold true, Green would be just the fifth Razorback quarterback to reach the 3,000 passing yard mark in a season, joining Ryan Mallett, Tyler Wilson, Austin Allen and Brandon Allen. He would also surpass the 500 rushing yard milestone, making him the seventh Hog quarterback to do so.
The crazy part is that no Arkansas quarterback has ever achieved both a 3,000-yard passing season and 500-yard rushing season in their career, let alone in the same year. The projected 3,677 total yards in 2024 would rank second on the single-season list at Arkansas behind Mallett’s 3,795 in 2010.
If Arkansas can take care of just one more of its opponents this season and gain bowl eligibility, an extra game would give Taylen Green the opportunity to break Mallett’s record.
Realistic Expectations For Last 4 Games
Sam Pittman’s squad begins rounding out the year with back-to-back tough matchups inside Razorback Stadium as they host the No. 19 Ole Miss Rebels this weekend and the current No. 6 Texas Longhorns in two weeks. A week later, Louisiana Tech will come to town for Senior Day before the Hogs end the season in Columbia, Mo., for the Battle Line Rivalry.
Taylen Green will need to see his confidence and poise continue to improve in the last four weeks if he wishes to break a relatively long-standing Arkansas record against three high-quality SEC opponents.
First up is Ole Miss, boasting one of the best defensive lines in college football. It’s sure to give Green some trouble on Saturday. The Rebel secondary isn’t exactly chopped liver, either. They held one of the SEC’s best quarterbacks, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, to just 22 completions on 51 attempts a few weeks back.
The Ole Miss pass defense allows exactly 200 passing yards per game, but Green and the Hogs can use a home-field advantage to surpass that number. Our estimation for Taylen Green’s stats: 226 yards through the air and another 24 on the ground, factoring in an inevitable sack or two.
Then comes Texas, which also has a stout pass defense. Only one quarterback has surpassed 200 yards through the air this season against the Longhorn secondary – Davis Warren of Michigan did it with 204 back on Sept. 7. Taylen Green will likely be looking to make plays with his legs when the ‘Horns and Hogs take the field. A safe guess for Green’s stats is 187 passing yards and 65 rushing against a tough Texas defense.
Louisiana Tech should give Green an opportunity to do a bit of stat padding. The Bulldog defense doesn’t have particularly bad numbers against the pass, and their defense has held opponents to a reasonably low 20 points per game, but they will have seen nothing like Taylen Green’s size, athleticism and play-making ability. In what should be a dominant home victory on Senior Day, we have Green accumulating somewhere around 297 passing yards while adding on 51 more with his feet.
Finally, the Hogs will have to leave the comfortable confines of Razorback Stadium to go play Missouri on the road to round out the season. Missouri saw their best player in the secondary last season, Ennis Rakestraw Jr., leave for the 2024 NFL Draft – but it seems their secondary hasn’t skipped a beat. The Tigers only allow 163.5 passing yards per game, although that number is skewed by three games against particularly poor opponents.
The Tiger defense has struggled much more against high-quality SEC teams like Texas A&M and Alabama. Taylen Green shouldn’t find himself completely shut down, with our projected stat line of 234 passing yards and 51 rushing yards being reasonable.
These predictions would put Taylen Green at exactly 3,000 passing yards and 586 on the ground in the 2024 regular season, putting his season total at 3,586. This would be seventh all-time in passing, seventh in rushing yards by a quarterback and fourth in total offense. Assuming the Razorbacks will make a bowl game, Green would certainly be within striking distance of Ryan Mallett’s record.
Arkansas Football Single-Season Records
Passing Yards
- Ryan Mallett: 3,869 (2010)
- Tyler Wilson: 3,638 (2011)
- Ryan Mallett: 3,624 (2009)
- Brandon Allen: 3,440 (2015)
- Austin Allen: 3,430 (2016)
- Tyler Wilson: 3,387 (2012)
- KJ Jefferson: 2,676 (2021)
- KJ Jefferson: 2,648 (2022)
- Clint Stoerner: 2,629 (1998)
- Casey Dick: 2,586 (2008)
Rushing Yards by a QB
- Matt Jones: 707 (2003)
- KJ Jefferson: 664 (2021)
- KJ Jefferson: 640 (2022)
- Matt Jones: 622 (2004)
- Matt Jones: 614 (2002)
- Matt Jones: 592 (2001)
- Billy Moore: 585 (1962)
- Quinn Grovey: 565 (1989)
- Ron Calcagni: 546 (1977)
- Scott Bull: 533 (1975)
Total Offense
- Ryan Mallett: 3,795 (2010)
- Tyler Wilson: 3,635 (2011)
- Ryan Mallett: 3,595 (2009)
- Brandon Allen: 3,547 (2015)
- Tyler Wilson: 3,394 (2012)
- KJ Jefferson: 3,340 (2021)
- Austin Allen: 3,304 (2016)
- KJ Jefferson: 3,276 (2022)
- Matt Jones: 2,695 (2004)
- Matt Jones: 2,624 (2003)
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See more about Arkansas’ offense here:
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