Sitting at 5-5, Arkansas needs one more win to secure bowl eligibility. Their best shot at that comes to Fayetteville this weekend in the form of Louisiana Tech.
Sam Pittman may want to be careful around this one. Another time an embattled Arkansas head coach faced a Conference USA team in November was in 2019, and Chad Morris was fired the day after that disastrous loss to Ty Storey and Western Kentucky. A loss on Saturday might lead to a similar fate for Pittman.
Of course, the seat on the other side of the field is heating up as well. La Tech is 4-6 and third-year coach Sonny Cumbie is just 8-24 against FBS competition. A loss to the Hogs will ensure Cumbie remains bowl-less in Ruston. However, he took a big step toward saving his job with a big win last week against… Western Kentucky.
After a run of big games in Fayetteville this year, expect a sparse crowd at Razorback Stadium for the 3 p.m. CT kickoff Saturday. Those who do attend – or stream it on SECN+/ESPN+ – should probably expect a low-scoring game.
La Tech’s Disaster Offense
Many Arkansas fans have wondered how the Hogs could hire an excellent offensive line coach as head coach, only to have the offensive line struggle. Louisiana Tech fans may be wondering something similar. The Bulldogs hired a Mike Leach disciple and expected offensive fireworks, but instead they’ve ended up with one of the worst offenses in the country.
The Tech offense has been so bad that in October, Cumbie turned play calling duties over to offensive line coach Nathan Young. It’s been quite the fall for the Air Raid coach who was once considered a rising star.
After playing for and coaching with Leach at Texas Tech, Cumbie’s best work was under Gary Patterson at TCU, where his offense powered the Horned Frogs to an 11-win season and Big 12 title in 2015. Cumbie was calling plays in Fort Worth during the home-and-home between the Frogs and Hogs in 2016 and 2017, with the Razorbacks winning a 41-38 double-overtime thriller in 2016 and TCU getting revenge with a 28-7 win in Fayetteville the following year.
But it was right around the time of that home-and-home that Cumbie seemed to lose his fastball. TCU’s offense rapidly declined starting in 2017, and Cumbie ended up going back to Texas Tech in 2021. Head coach Matt Wells didn’t even last the season, so Cumbie was on the move again, taking the head coaching job in Ruston, La.
The Bulldogs have the worst offense Arkansas has seen since UAPB in the opener. It’s a spread formation that in theory is balanced. Tech, however, doesn’t do anything well, but running the ball has been especially nightmarish.
Pro Football Focus gives it a team run blocking grade of 46, the fourth-worst in the entire FBS. It’s generating just 1.2 yards before contact per rush this year, worst among Razorback FBS opponents. The running back tandem of Omiri Wiggins and Amani Givens earns a respectable 3.0 yards per rush after contact, but they have to break a lot of tackles and fight through contact to get much on the ground.
Teams that can’t run the ball generally fall behind the chains, and Tech is no exception. The Bulldogs are very bad on early downs and more than 60% of their first downs see them facing a third down two plays later, the 18th-worst rate out of 134 FBS teams. This is a big reason why they are 21.5-point underdogs through sportsbooks in the U.S. and outside, including malawi betting.
Through the air, things are a little bit better. Quarterback Evan Bullock is pretty accurate, completing 68% of his passes with only two interceptions. His top target, slot receiver Tru Edwards, is a handful:
Here’s another look at that ridiculous catch-and-run:
In typical Air Raid fashion, the Bulldogs will seek short, safe throws underneath the zone. Half of Edwards’ yards, for example, have come after the catch this season. Bullock’s average target is just 8.0 yards down the field, shorter than every quarterback the Hogs have faced this year except UAB’s Jacob Zeno (4.6) and Texas’ Quinn Ewers (6.7).
Zeno, of course, carved the Razorback secondary up with those short throws back in September, so the Bulldog staff will likely watch plenty of film from that game and try to replicate the Blazers’ success. The Razorbacks were much better against Ewers last week, playing one of their best games of the year in the secondary.
The big difference between Zeno and Bullock is escapability. Zeno was shifty in the pocket and took just eight sacks in 58 pressures during his time as UAB’s starter (he was injured in October and hasn’t played since). Bullock is not shifty at all. He’s been pressured on about 32% of his dropbacks this year, which is slightly high for an Air Raid offense that prioritizes quick throws, but not extremely high overall. However, more than one-third of pressures against him manage to sack him, the highest rate (by far) of any quarterback Arkansas has faced this year.
Because of how easy it is to get Bullock on the ground, teams are blitzing the Bulldogs like crazy. Bullock is blitzed on about 40% of his dropbacks, and opponents are having success: 44% pressure rate and 14% sack rate on blitzed dropbacks.
That’s why Louisiana Tech may struggle to replicate UAB’s dink-and-dunk strategy to move the ball. If Tech gets in a rhythm with underneath throws, Arkansas defensive coordinator Travis Williams will likely just start bringing more pressure. One sack could kill a promising Bulldog drive.
Arkansas Will Have to Work for Points
When La Tech wins, you can probably thank the defense. Its two most recent wins were by scores of 14-10 against UTEP and 12-7 against Western Kentucky. The Bulldogs also lost a game by a 9-3 score at Sam Houston State between those wins. This is a strong defense that’s going to force Taylen Green to win with his arm.
In an inverse of its offense, Louisiana Tech’s defense is very good on early downs, due mostly to its ability to stop the run. The main name to know is linebacker Kolbe Fields, who is extremely talented. He has an interception, two sacks, two forced fumbles and 43 stops (tackles that prevent a successful play, as graded by PFF). The only two SEC linebackers with more stops this year are Ole Miss’ Chris Paul Jr. and LSU’s Whit Weeks, both of whom had big games against the Razorbacks.
And if Paul had his “revenge game” against his old team a couple weeks ago, the Hogs might want to look out for Tech’s other linebacker: Zach Zimos. A former four-star recruit who barely saw the field over four years in Fayetteville, he is in his second year in Ruston as a graduate transfer. Like Fields, Zimos is very good against the run.
Unfortunately, his biggest highlight this year has been this hit against UTEP, for which he was ejected:
With Zimos roaming the defense, it would probably be wise for Green to stay on his feet and not attempt any Mortal Kombat-like moves in the same vein as what he tried against Auburn earlier this year.
The coverage units are no pushover, either. Fields and Zimos grade decently in coverage, as does top cornerback Demarcus Griffin-Taylor. The main issue with Tech’s secondary is that it has picked off only four passes all year.
But the Bulldogs’ biggest defensive weakness, by far, is the one place you don’t want to be weak against the Hogs: the pass rush. They’ve struggled to sustain a pass rush all season, with their 108 team pressures significantly fewer than every SEC opponent Arkansas has faced except Mississippi State (82). Without a strong pass rush, the Bulldogs probably need Green to have an off night to have a chance.
What to Watch for in Arkansas vs La Tech
After losing several hyped-up games following the big Tennessee win, don’t be surprised if the Hogs come out a little flat against a paycheck opponent.
However, on paper, Louisiana Tech just doesn’t match up very well with the Hogs. Many of Tech’s biggest weaknesses will play right into the Razorbacks’ hands.
The Arkansas offense probably isn’t going to march up and down the field against a tough Bulldog defense, but they should be able to move the ball. Most importantly, Taylen Green is going to have some clean pockets to work from, and we’ve seen what he’s capable of when he’s not under pressure. Keep an eye on how well (and how often) the Razorbacks throw the ball on first and second down, as that’s the key to breaking this defense.
On the other side, Louisiana Tech is likely to have a hard time moving the football against the Hogs. Despite a capable quarterback and a very good receiver, the Bulldogs are likely to be dominated on the line of scrimmage. If Louisiana Tech’s blockers can’t pick up the blitz against Razorback defenders ready to feast, the offense is in for a long night.
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Braylen Russell’s Health Situation
When the Arkansas freshman tailback has played, he’s been stellar. The problem is, those snaps are coming too far and few between lately.
The week after Russell put up more rushing yards than any Arkansas freshman not named Darren McFadden in a rout vs the last Bulldogs the Hogs played, he got only three carries for three yards and played just eight snaps against Ole Miss.
Even after a bye week, he still wasn’t a full go vs Texas.
He might have been available in a pinch, Russell was clearly still not 100%, as evidenced by him getting some individual work on the field while the specialists were going through their pregame warmups — just as he had two weeks earlier.
More here:
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