Tennessee comes to Fayetteville on Saturday for a primetime showdown with the Razorbacks. Arkansas’ last win over a top-5 team in Fayetteville was in 1999 against the Vols, so Hog fans are certainly hoping history repeats itself.
The Volunteers are known for their offense, especially their powerful aerial attack. But they are not a one-trick pony, and it’s all the other things they do well that make them such a threat.
Threat of the Deep Ball
Josh Heupel is an offensive guy and his calling card is explosive offense. The Tennessee football coach’s philosophy isn’t exactly new: It’s the most faithful continuation of the “veer-and-shoot” offense pioneered by Art Briles at Baylor.
The veer-and-shoot is remarkably simple, which is why Kendal Briles’ father originally developed it as a high school coach. It uses spread formations with very wide receiver splits, which make it harder for slot defenders to help against the run. That forces the defense into a tough choice: try to keep seven defenders in the box to stop the run, and the offense will get 1-on-1 matchups for its deep passing game (the “shoot”). If the defense keeps two deep safeties to prevent the deep passes, it has only six defenders in the box to stop the read-option rushing attack (the “veer”).
Defenses typically choose the latter option, so most veer-and-shoot teams are run-heavy and face light boxes. The rise of run-pass options (RPOs) made this offense very dangerous, as the quarterback can simply count defenders in the box and know before the snap if he’s going to hand the ball off. If you wondered why Rocket Sanders had a fantastic 2022 season with huge holes to run through and an awful 2023 one, the offensive transition from Kendal Briles’ veer-and-shoot to Dan Enos’ Spread Coast was probably the biggest factor.
While other veer-and-shoot coaches like the younger Briles and Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby have evolved their scheme into something more similar to other modern spreads, Heupel’s Tennessee offense is still very faithful to the original Baylor looks.
Probably the most striking feature of the Briles scheme that Heupel still uses is the extreme wide receiver splits. Note how far outside the numbers the outside receiver aligns on this play, and how the slot defender has no way to help against a run:
As simple as the scheme is, it requires a really good quarterback to execute. He has to have a good deep ball, forcing the defense to keep its safeties back. And he has to be dual-threat, so the read-option can “read” off a defender on run plays.
You’ve probably heard of Tennessee’s talented quarterback Nico Iamaleava. He’s been earning his reported $2 million NIL deal this season with a potent quick-strike passing attack like this:
Of course, if you watch a full Tennessee football game, you’ll notice that they don’t really throw deep all that often. In fact, the Vols don’t throw at all at a high rate. In two games against Power 4 opponents, they’ve attempted 23 and 21 passes. Compare that to Arkansas: 45, 27 and 41 attempts for Taylen Green against Oklahoma State, Auburn and Texas A&M, respectively.
The Vols have the nation’s sixth-highest Run Rate Over Expected, a stat that measures how often a team runs the ball given the down-and-distances it has faced. That makes them the most run-heavy team in the SEC.
Through four starts this year, Iamaleava is presenting the deep threat that the veer-and-shoot needs to work. Note in the clip above that Oklahoma is in Dime personnel (six defensive backs) and has just six men in the box, even though the Vols have six potential blockers (five offensive linemen and a tight end) and a quarterback who is a run threat. Any run play is going to have a significant advantage in terms of blockers.
Maintaining gap integrity is very difficult, like on this long run, where Kent State has no way to account for the pulling lineman.
And RPOs just turbocharge this advantage: no one in the SEC calls more RPOs than Heupel. Play action is also a frequent tool for taking advantage of safeties trying to overplay the run.
So what are the weaknesses? On paper, this is a tough scheme to stop. Historically, the biggest issue for the veer-and-shoot was that it couldn’t land elite quarterbacks – with the exception of Robert Griffin III – due to its perception as a very college offense that doesn’t develop NFL skills. But Tennessee has broken through that objection in Iamaleava, a 5-star prospect with legitimate pro skills.
The biggest issue is probably a lack of options for the quarterback. As in the original Baylor offense, Tennessee uses max protection almost exclusively. This means that the tight end and the running back always stay in to pass block, meaning that just three receivers are in the pattern. This has served to protect Iamaleava, who is being pressured on an SEC-low 12.5% of dropbacks this year.
Theoretically, the veer-and-shoot doesn’t need a ton of receivers in the pattern, because so many of the routes have only one read for the quarterback. RPOs, for example, typically only have look. And the veer-and-shoot loves deep “choice” routes, which the quarterback usually decides to throw pre-snap based on defensive alignment, like this all-timer from the 2021 Arkansas-Texas A&M game:
But defending three receivers is much easier than defending five, and if the quarterback’s first and second reads aren’t there, the play can break down quickly.
So run defense (with six in the box) will end up being key, and there’s reason to believe the Hogs can contain the Vols there. Though Tennessee ran all over the hapless defenses of Chattanooga, N.C. State and Kent State, the Oklahoma defense contained its run game nicely. Tennessee ran the ball 52 times for 151 yards in that game, averaging just 2.9 yards per rush.
Compared to the backs Arkansas has faced so far in SEC play, Jarquez Hunter and Le’Veon Moss, the Vols’ top tailback Dylan Sampson looks easier to contain. He breaks tackles at a lower rate than Hunter or Moss, and had a cushion of just 1.33 yards before contact per rush against Oklahoma.
Arkansas keeping a lid on the Vols’ power offense will boil down to:
- Its safeties, who have been very good so far this year, effectively taking away the deep passing game
- The defensive front, which has been excellent against the run, keeping Tennessee from running wild
Tennessee’s Secret Weapon
The Vol offense has dominated the headlines, but it’s the Tennessee defense that has really been exceptional so far this year. The news on this side of the ball is not good for an Arkansas offense that was smothered by Texas A&M.
If you look at the stats, the Volunteer defense is basically the same as the Aggies’ unit, but better. Texas A&M ranked fourth in the nation in run stuff rate (percent of runs stopped for no gain or a loss), but the Volunteers are No. 1. They create tons of havoc: 7.8 tackles for loss per game (tied for 12th nationally), plus 17 pass deflections and four forced fumbles in just four games.
While the Tennessee defensive line may not have the raw talent of Texas A&M’s, it has been every bit as productive this year, albeit against some weak offenses. The Vols have an insane amount of depth here, and no defensive lineman has played even half of the team’s snaps. In the interior, 325-pound Omari Thomas is a beast against the run and will require double-team blocks. Most of the other tackles are also on the plus side of 300 pounds.
The linebackers and secondary are not elite, but it’s unclear whether the Hogs can take advantage. While Tennessee generally prevents explosive passes, they are very vulnerable to a capable short-to-intermediate passing game. The linebackers are good against the run, but poor in coverage. The weakest link in the secondary is nickel Christian Harrison, the guy who apparently beat out Doneiko Slaughter for the starting job in Knoxville. The Vols like him for his solid play against the run, but he’s struggled in coverage. Strong safety Andre Turrentine has also struggled.
Running the ball is going to be a tall order against a defense this stout. The Hogs have to find a way to effectively attack the weaker coverage units. Given the attention Andrew Armstrong will command, this could be a big opportunity for Isaiah Sategna. I also like what Isaac TeSlaa could do in the slot.
The only good news here is that Tennessee isn’t getting a lot of pressure against the quarterback. Like Auburn and Texas A&M, I expect the Vols to bring pressure a lot more than usual, but the Hogs might be able to protect their quarterback.
What to Watch for in Arkansas vs Tennessee
Arkansas is a big underdog on Saturday, but any chance at a win likely involves a low-scoring game where Tennessee’s threat of explosive plays never materializes.
The Hogs will likely keep their safeties deep to prevent the deep ball and roll the dice on stopping the run with six in the box. If they can pull it off, they can frustrate the Vol offense and give their own offense a chance to win the game. Getting Hudson Clark and Jaylon Braxton, who have missed the last couple games with injuries, back into the lineup would be a big boost.
Offensively, this will be a tall order, but the Hogs are probably the best offense Tennessee has faced so far. Green will have to be accurate, and the offensive line has to protect better than it did against the Aggies.
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