After an ugly, hard-fought 24-14 win over Auburn to start 1-0 in SEC play, Arkansas is headed to Arlington for a monster matchup with Texas A&M.
This is a game that has given the Razorbacks problems in recent years. Bobby Petrino was 3-0 against the Aggies as head coach, but they are just 1-11 in this rivalry since his firing, with many of those losses coming in agonizing fashion. The good news is that Arkansas won the last time Petrino was on the sideline for the Razorbacks (2011), and also won the last time Mike Elko was on the Aggies’ sideline (2021).
Elko is in his first season as Texas A&M football head coach, taking over after two good years as Duke’s head coach. Since a disappointing 23-13 loss to Notre Dame in College Station in their opener, the Aggies have won three straight, including a 33-20 win over Florida in the Swamp, but they did look a bit sluggish in last Saturday’s 26-20 win over pesky Bowling Green.
Here is our in-depth analysis of Arkansas vs Texas A&M…
A New QB for Texas A&M Football
Texas A&M’s offense is coordinated by Collin Klein, the former Kansas State quarterback who had a rough outing against Bobby Petrino and the Hogs in the 2011 Cotton Bowl. Klein was at his alma mater coaching quarterbacks from 2017-23, spending the final two seasons as offensive coordinator and play caller. In the typical Kansas State style, Klein likes mobile quarterbacks and runs a spread offense full of reads and misdirections.
Just one week after forcing Auburn into a quarterback controversy, the Hogs have a chance to do the same thing in Arkansas vs Texas A&M. The Aggies’ original starter, Conner Weigman, struggled in the opener against Notre Dame and injured his throwing shoulder. Although he played the first half of the next week’s game against McNeese State, he was replaced by redshirt freshman Marcel Reed at halftime and has not played since.
Reed led the Aggies to a win in the Swamp and Saturday’s ugly victory over Bowling Green. Like Weigman, he was in College Station last year, so Bobby Petrino will have plenty of intel on him that he can give to Travis Williams.
With Reed, you’re looking at a dual-threat quarterback who is a bit limited as a passer. Against Bowling Green, Reed was just 16 of 29 for 173 yards and two touchdowns. In 10 quarters of play, he’s completing 56% of his passes and averaging 7.4 yards per attempt. That’s not terrible, but it’s not ideal considering that the competition has been McNeese, Bowling Green and a struggling Florida team.
As a result, the Aggies will use Reed like the Hogs use Taylen Green. You’ll see plenty of read options:
Reed has 32 carries for 217 yards (6.8 per carry) and a touchdown so far this year, and poses the strongest ground game threat from a quarterback that Arkansas has faced this season.
Looking ahead on the schedule, it will only get harder in terms of the quality of dual-threat quarterbacks and quality of teams. The likes of Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava, Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart and Texas’ Arch Manning, if he ends up starting over Quinn Ewers come Nov. 16, will all put extreme stress on Arkansas’ defense. Frankly, if the Razorbacks can’t handle Reed, their prospects for handling what’s coming down the chute seem far less likely.
The Aggies have been very run-heavy so far, ranking ninth in the FBS in Run Rate Over Expected, a stat that measures how often a team runs the ball adjusted for down and distance. They’ll want to get plenty of work for veteran running backs Le’Veon Moss and Amari Daniels, who were dominant against Florida, but more pedestrian against Bowling Green.
The Aggie run game already looks like the classic Kansas State offense. They don’t get big runs, ranking just 70th in percentage of non-sack rushes to gain 10 or more yards. But they always get something: 60% of their carries pick up four or more yards, good for sixth-best in the FBS. They want to sort of plod their way down the field by staying ahead of the chains, controlling the clock and winning field position. It’s a scheme that can be frustrating to stop because it’s so hard to knock them off-schedule.
When forced to pass, Reed did manage to throw for 361 yards in the Aggies’ Texas Bowl loss last year. His longest pass this year, however, was a bust by Florida:
On Saturday, Bowling Green played several coverages, but the Falcons had the most success against Reed when they went to man coverage, especially press man, forcing Reed to throw into tight windows. This is a pretty standard strategy against inaccurate quarterbacks, and both Arkansas and Auburn deployed it against each other.
As we saw on Saturday, the Hogs have the defensive backs to play man and matchup coverage. Tall cornerbacks who can press at the line of scrimmage and then stay with their receiver allow you to be more aggressive. The open passing windows will close quickly and there’s not much room for error. That proved to be too much for Hank Brown, who struggled to anticipate when his routes were coming open, as ESPN analyst and former Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray diagrammed after the game.
Should Reed struggle, Weigman is apparently “available” to report for duty, even though he didn’t suit up against Bowling Green. The game plan shifts significantly when Weigman is in the game, as he’s a purer pocket passer and not suited for the read-option offense.
Arkansas’ strategy against Auburn was to contain the run game, especially between the tackles, and make the quarterback win with his arm. Hopefully the Hogs didn’t exhaust that strategy at Jordan-Hare Stadium, because it will be useful again on Saturday.
The main difference is the added threat of the quarterback run game, either via scrambles or designed runs. The Hogs will probably leave a spy on most passing situations, but that limits the amount of pressure you can bring, so Williams and co-defensive coordinator Marcus Woodson will have some choices to make in terms of how they defend.
Another Tall Task for the Arkansas OL
Mike Elko is a defensive guy by trade. He spent much of his early career in the FCS before breaking through as Bowling Green’s defensive coordinator in 2009 under Dave Clawson. Clawson took Elko with him to Wake Forest in 2014, but the pair finally parted ways when Elko was named defensive coordinator at Notre Dame (2017) and Texas A&M (2018-2021).
Unlike Oklahoma State and Auburn, the Aggies will use a base four-man front, though Elko will occasionally use three-man fronts for his third-down pressure packages. The Aggie defensive line is loaded with former 5-star Jimbo Fisher recruits and is probably the strongest unit on the team. They create a ton of havoc: 31% of non-sack rushing attempts against the Aggies have seen the runner hit in the backfield, good for fourth-best in the country.
Elko also doesn’t usually bring much pressure on early downs in order to prevent big plays. He’s previously called his defense “the most vanilla in the country on first and second down”, and he will typically rely on a four-man rush to get the job done. That’s led to just five sacks all season, all of them by the line, like this one with a four-man rush:
Arkansas, by contrast, has seven sacks, with five of them by blitzing linebackers or defensive backs.
On the back end, Elko loves safeties, especially the strong safety spot. He’ll use that position as an extra linebacker against the run and as a rover to cover the middle of the field against the pass. Green will need to be aware of where Marcus Ratcliffe is at all times; the Aggie strong safety leads the SEC with three interceptions, all of them coming while playing the rover spot in the middle.
However, as with Auburn, the Aggie secondary is a potential weakness. Auburn’s secondary hadn’t played well heading into last week, but they got star cornerback Kayin Lee back and mostly bottled up the Razorback receivers outside of Isaiah Sategna’s spectacular touchdown grab. The Aggies are hoping for much the same result. They have been good at preventing big plays through the air, but like Auburn, they are allowing a lot of completions on shorter throws. Florida’s Graham Mertz completed 12 of his 15 attempts, while Bowling Green’s Connor Bazelak was 20 of 37 for 250 yards.
The tight end could play a role. Petrino has mostly used his tight ends as blockers, with neither Luke Hasz nor Ty Washington getting many passing targets. But Bowling Green tight end Harold Fannin Jr. had 8 catches for 145 yards and a touchdown against the Aggies, while Florida tight end Arlis Boardingham recorded his best game of the season with five catches for 42 yards against Texas A&M. Hasz and Washington could provide targets for the short, safe throws that A&M’s defense is allowing right now.
And the back end isn’t as good as the line at stopping the run, so any run that breaks through could go big. The Aggies rank just 90th in preventing rushes of 10 or more yards, and they allowed touchdown runs of 47 and 21 in the second half of the Notre Dame loss:
Arkansas led the nation in explosive rushes heading into last week but have now dropped to third. If they make up for the lack of explosives that we saw against Auburn, the Hogs may be looking at an all-or-nothing run game where every carry is either a big gain or a loss.
As usual, Arkansas’ offensive success likely comes down to the offensive line. If the Hogs can secure blocks in the run game, they’ve got a good chance to rip off some explosive plays. And if they can protect Green, he can get into a rhythm throwing the ball. I expect Elko to bring much more early-down pressure than he has been, since abstaining from blitzing a Petrino offense is really not smart. If that happens, the Hogs have to pick it up to give Green time. Again, keep an eye on the tight ends, as this could be a breakout game.
What to Watch in Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
Arkansas vs Texas A&M will likely come down to which team can make the opposing quarterback uncomfortable.
Both defenses want to stop the run and then win on third down. The offense is where they differ: the Aggies want to be calculating and efficient, and the Hogs want to hit big plays.
The winner will likely be the one whose quarterback is able to make more big plays on the ground and rein in the mistakes by air.
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Adam Ford is the author of the advanced stats-themed blog Fayette Villains and posts on X as @AdamFord92.
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