Former Petrino Staffer Now Holds Key to Wrecking Arkansas’ Offense

Bobby Petrino, Bradyn Swinson, Arkansas football, Arkansas vs LSU
photo credit: Craven Whitlow / LSU Athletics

An open date allowed Arkansas fans to enjoy the carnage that college football’s Week 7 delivered without having to stress over the Hogs.

Among that carnage was LSU, which led for zero seconds of gametime, scoring a touchdown in overtime to defeat Ole Miss 29-26 in Baton Rouge. That means the Tigers will bring a 5-1 record and No. 8 ranking to Fayetteville for a primetime showdown for the Golden Boot.

Like much of the SEC, it’s hard to tell whether the Tigers are very good or just pretty good. Ole Miss lost at home to Kentucky and lacks a signature win. LSU’s other SEC win is 3-3 South Carolina, and the Gamecocks lost their quarterback to injury before LSU’s comeback in that game. The Tigers also have a neutral-site loss to 3-3 USC.

Still, a win on Saturday has the potential to take this season from “satisfactory” to “special.” With a winnable game in Starkville to follow, the Hogs could be looking at a 6-2 start. Then a win over Ole Miss makes Arkansas 7-2 with Texas coming to town…but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

LSU plays very differently from the three SEC foes the Hogs have already faced. While Auburn, Texas A&M and Tennessee were run-heavy, LSU is the conference’s most pass-heavy team. While the previous three relied on defense, the Tigers are an offensive machine. While the previous three had quarterbacks who were young, injured or struggling, the Tigers have a confident gunslinger behind center.

A Test for the Razorback Secondary

LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has played a lot of football since locking horns with Taylen Green in high school. His first collegiate start was against Arkansas in 2021: he threw for 179 yards in the Tigers’ 16-13 loss to the Razorbacks in Baton Rouge that ended with a Cam Little field goal in overtime. He’s mostly been a backup for the last three seasons, but finally won the starting job this spring.

Nussmeier’s going to come out throwing: LSU ranks 127th out of 134 FBS teams in Run Rate Over Expected, which measures how often teams run the ball based on down and distance. And no matter the down or distance, the Tigers want to throw it. The Tiger offense is efficient. They stay on schedule and in manageable third-down situations, they avoid negative plays and they string together long drives.

LSU’s offensive line is already solid in protection, but to further avoid pressure, the ball comes out of Nussmeier’s hands quickly – just 2.63 seconds on average, second-fastest in the SEC behind Texas’ Quinn Ewers. As a result, Nussmeier has been sacked only twice all season.

The Hogs would certainly love to generate some pressure, because when he’s pressured, Nussmeier isn’t a willing scrambler and will do some silly things with the football, like this lollipop interception:

He’s thrown six interceptions this season and many of them were bad decisions rather than inaccurate passes. Four of those picks came against USC, South Carolina, and Ole Miss. And despite just 10 carries all season (two sacks, three scrambles, five designed carries), he’s also lost a fumble.

The Tigers will use a standard set of pro-style passing concepts that attack down the field. They’ll mix in some screens, RPOs and play-action, but for the most part, this is a drop back passing scheme much like Arkansas’. Talent-wise, the receivers are the strength.

The top target is 6-foot-2 Kyren Lacy, the home-run hitter on the outside. He’s a major threat down the field, like on this play, where he finished the Ole Miss win off in style:

The Hogs probably want Marquise Robinson, who has been their top cornerback this season, to cover Lacy as often as possible.

The other major threat is 5-foot-8 slot receiver Aaron Anderson, who is the catch-and-run specialist. He’s averaging an impressive 5.7 yards after catch per reception this year. The Tigers will move the sophomore around a bit to get him in space, like on this play, where an errant throw prevents LSU from taking a late lead on USC:

The Tigers will also use tight end Mason Taylor, who has very good hands, and will throw to running backs coming out of the backfield. There will be five receiving threats on the field on pretty much every play.

This will be the tallest test the Razorback secondary has faced so far this year. The Hogs spent the open date trying to get healthy, but they’d really like to have Jaylon Braxton back in the lineup. The talented sophomore missed the last four games with tendonitis but Sam Pittman was hopeful he could return to practice. If he’s back, that would be a major help. Coverage goes beyond just the defensive backs, though. LSU will target tight ends and backs, which means Hog linebackers have to be solid in coverage as well. The speed of the Razorback linebackers has already proven to be an asset, especially against Tennessee.

(UPDATE: It doesn’t sound like Arkansas will get Braxton back this week after all. Despite some optimism last week, Pittman told reporters Monday that he didn’t think his star corner would be available against LSU.)

How can this LSU offense be stopped? There’s probably no “secret sauce” like defensive coordinator Travis Williams cooked up against Tennessee, but it may be possible to make the Tigers a bit one-dimensional. That’s what both USC and Ole Miss were able to do, with the Rebels limiting the Tigers to just 84 rushing yards on 24 attempts. Those 24 rushing attempts compare to 51 passing attempts for Nussmeier.

LSU’s running back situation has been all over the place. Veteran John Emery Jr. started the opener and ran 10 times for 61 yards before tearing his ACL. Fifth-year senior Josh Williams then became the main guy, but he’s steadily been ceding ground to true freshman Caden Durham. Durham has been boom-or-bust: an 86-yard run juiced his stats against South Alabama, but he had 6 carries for 14 yards against UCLA and then just 12 for 37 against Ole Miss on Saturday, getting very little after contact in either game.

Durham is arguably more dangerous as a receiver, where he’s caught 9 of 10 targets for 141 yards, including a 71-yard touchdown against South Alabama. The Tigers will occasionally motion him out to the slot and let him run a route against a linebacker, so that could be something to watch.

LSU’s Defense: Potential Softness Up Front?

After the buzzsaw of facing Texas A&M and Tennessee in back-to-back weeks, offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino must be happy to see LSU. That’s not something he would have said back in 2010 or 2011, but it’s true in 2024. Unlike that relative golden age of LSU defense led by the likes of Tyrann Mathieu and Barkevious Mingo, this Tiger defense isn’t near the top of the SEC this year.

Still, these Bayou Bengals are salty enough. They are pretty good at forcing turnovers and negative plays, which is a concern for a Razorback offense that allows way too many of both. But if they aren’t pushing you backward, the Tiger defense is going backward itself. LSU struggles to get opponents behind the chains, is below-average on third down and allows way too many successful plays on both the ground and through the air. Any patient offense that avoids turnovers is capable of moving the ball on LSU’s defense.

LSU’s run defense is the first vulnerable unit the Hogs have faced since Auburn. The Tigers don’t allow a ton of big runs, but they’ve still been gashed a few times, as former Hog Rocket Sanders of South Carolina had his best game of the season against LSU (19 carries, 143 yards, 2 touchdowns). Pro Football Focus charted Sanders with 89 yards before contact against the Tigers, 66 of them on the play below. That’s more than he’s had in every other game he’s played this year combined.

LSU’s defensive line isn’t in the same stratosphere as the Aggies and Vols in terms of run disruption. The best Tiger run defenders are the linebackers, Whit Weeks and Brad Penn III, not the linemen. As a consequence, expect fewer Razorback run plays to be blown up in the backfield. This provides an opportunity for the Razorback offense to stay on schedule by getting downhill in the run game, something they haven’t done well in a few weeks.

Against the pass, it’s a different story. LSU has fantastic edge rushers, led by Bradyn Swinson. He has seven sacks, and his 23 pressures lead all SEC edge rushers, while his 34% pass-rush win rate ranks 4th among conference edges. If he lines up across from right tackle Keyshawn Blackstock, whose 24 pressures allowed are the most on Arkansas’ offensive line, the Hogs are going to have to help out by having a tight end or back chip Swinson. Swinson is talented enough that the offense has to know where he is and have a plan to contain him.

LSU’s edge rushers, including Swinson and fellow starter Sai’vion Jones, are coached by Kevin Peoples. That name should ring a bell with Arkansas football fans, as he was at Arkansas State for eight seasons before joining Bobby Petrino’s staff in Fayetteville as the director of high school relations in 2010. He was promoted to defensive line coach for the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

A winding journey eventually led Peoples back to the SEC at Missouri from 2022-23, but he was hired by LSU this past offseason and now coaches the specific group that could be the key to wrecking Petrino’s offense Saturday night. Not only is Swinson an incredible talent, but the Hogs have struggled to protect Taylen Green at times this year, plus he might not be as mobile as usual as he returns from what was diagnosed as a bone bruise on his knee.

“(Swinson) had a freaking hell of a game (against Ole Miss),” Arkansas left tackle Fernando Carmona said on his podcast, Pin and Pull. “I think he had three sacks or two sacks, so that’s going to be somebody I’m going to have to key into. I feel like I have a pretty good game plan on him, pretty good bead on him, and I just think if I stick to myself and my technique, I’m going to be just fine out there.”

The guy that many thought would be the defensive star for LSU is Harold Perkins, who caused Arkansas all sorts of problems in his breakthrough game against the Razorbacks in 2022. But Perkins was having an up-and-down year before tearing his ACL a few weeks ago against UCLA. He’s out for the year.

Despite a strong pass rush, the Tiger pass defense got off to a disastrous start to the year, allowing 378 yards to USC in the opening loss. They made a big move after that, getting more snaps to cornerback Zy Alexander, who was recovering from tearing his ACL last year. He split time for a few games, then missed the South Alabama game, and then played 87 snaps on Saturday against Ole Miss, his first “full” game of the year. The results? Opponents have targeted him 17 times this year, completing six passes for 32 yards with two interceptions and two breakups. He’s played 30 snaps of man coverage this season without allowing a single catch.

The sample size on Alexander is still fairly small this season, so he may not be The Next Great LSU Defensive Back, but even if he is, the good news is that the rest of the Tiger secondary is pedestrian. The safeties and linebackers in particular have had all sorts of issues in coverage. Safety Major Burns, for example, has allowed 17 catches for 249 yards and three touchdowns, including at least one reception of 20 yards in four consecutive games.

So once again, this looks like an opportunity to involve Isaiah Sategna. I mentioned him as one to watch against Tennessee, and he produced five catches for 72 yards.

What to Watch for in Arkansas vs LSU

If Bobby Petrino’s offense is going to take another step forward this season, Saturday will be a good opportunity. LSU has a couple of very disruptive players in defensive end Bradyn Swinson and corner Ty Alexander, but this Tiger defense isn’t as strong as what the Hogs have seen so far in SEC play.

Pay close attention to Arkansas’ ability to run the ball on early downs: they couldn’t do so against Texas A&M and Tennessee, but LSU’s run defense is weaker. If this game turns into a shootout, can the Hog offense avoid shooting itself in the foot enough to finish drives?

And how does the Razorback defense fare against a pass-happy team? The last time the Hogs faced an established, veteran quarterback, it was Oklahoma State’s Alan Bowman, who ended up throwing for more than 300 yards after a slow start. Can the Hogs get pressure? Can they stay with these dangerous LSU receivers in space?

The outcome is very much up in the air. 

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