Sam Pittman had to know this was coming.
There’s zero question when he decided to bring Bobby Petrino back into the Arkansas football program as offensive coordinator he knew that that storyline would dominate the offseason.
That part was actually welcome given the program needed a shot in the arm after such a disappointing 4-win campaign last season. Fan excitement going into this fall is less than it had been in previous summers, but would have been significantly lower with most any other offensive coordinator in the fold.
So much of chatter, however, also bleeds into a couple questions that probably annoy Pittman: If the Hogs struggle, how long will it take for him to get fired? In that scenario, would Petrino take over as interim coach and potentially the full-time successor after that?
Predictions for Arkansas Football Season
An optimistic outlook here involves Arkansas winning at least 6 wins and getting into a bowl game. Six regular season wins should be enough for Pittman to either keep the job for another season or, if he’s more fed up with the NIL-powered college sports world than he’s let on, call it a career and boat off into the sunset over Lake Hamilton near that $2 million pad of his.
As far as how the road to six wins plays out, Arkansas should be favored against UAPB, UAB and Louisiana Tech – so going 3-0 there shouldn’t surprise anybody.
Since the back half of the season features potential top-10 opponents in LSU, Ole Miss, Texas and Missouri, it’s reasonable to think that most of the other three wins need to come from the Hogs’ front half.
That’s exactly what the guys over at SEC Unfiltered have predicted for the Razorbacks, with road wins over Oklahoma State and Auburn propelling Arkansas to a 4-0 start. Sure, in SEC Unfiltered’s perspective, the wheels fall off a bit down the stretch – but there would be no shame losing a lot in the murderer’s row in the back half. A 4-0 start means Arkansas needs only take care of business against, say, Mississippi State and Louisiana Tech to get back to bowling.
In the less optimistic camps, some see a much worse start for Arkansas with no tandem of glorious road wins in Stillwater and Auburn. There’s even the possibility of an upset at the hands of UAB, which would be as disappointing to Hog fans as the Chiefs missing out on the 2024 NFL Playoffs altogether for those Kansas City fans betting on the NFL.
Losses against both Auburn and Oklahoma State, or a loss against one them paired with a loss to UAB, are the kinds of things that would need to happen to bring the calls for Pittman’s head to the same level they were for Dan Enos after the 3-7 Mississippi State loss last season. “It’s a make-or-break year for Sam Pittman,” an anonymous SEC coach told Lindy’s Sports Magazine. “He’s got (OC) Bobby Petrino there. Everybody is betting on the past. We’ll see if the past works. They might be doing Halloween without the (current) Razorbacks staff.”
Until now, that had likely been the most aggressive prediction regarding how soon Pittman would be fired from a “mainstream” source. Well, folks, we have a new winner in that department.
It appears the guys over at The Next Round college football show in Alabama don’t think Pittman will make it to even mid-October. In a recent show, co-hosts Ryan Brown, Jim Dunaway and Lance Taylor examined Arkansas’ schedule and saw losses racking up early on vs Oklahoma State, Auburn, Texas A&M and Tennessee.
That would put the Hogs at 2-4 heading into their first bye week on Oct. 12:
In such a scenario, it would be very hard to muster excitement among Arkansas football fans staring down LSU, Ole Miss and Texas in the coming month. And would a 2-5 team without a signature win yet and so seemingly far away from even a bowl game be as motivated to win at Mississippi State?
That’s why Brown sees Pittman getting axed after a home loss to Tennessee on Oct. 5. “I think he gets fired in that off week,” he said.
The Next Round folks think one reason to rip the band-aid off so quickly is for Arkansas brass to make Bobby Petrino the interim coach and give more than half a season to audition for the full-time gig.
“If you fire him in that bye week and you let Petrino take over, there’s two very winnable games already at Mississippi State and hosting LA Tech. You can win those games,” Brown said.
“If he happens to pull an upset against LSU, against Ole Miss, against Texas, or against Missouri, any of those would be massive upsets. But if he happens to do that, he’s 3-3 with a pelt on the wall against a [likely] top 10 team,” he added. “There’s going to be a lot of people crying for ‘Bring back Bobby Petrino. Let’s go back to the old days.'”
Clearing the Record on Sam Pittman’s Buyout
Yes, that seems aggressively early, about 10 days earlier than when Enos got fired last season. The Next Round folks are also under the impression that Arkansas could save money by firing Pittman with a 2-4 record. He currently has a 23-25 record at Arkansas and if he’s fired with a below .500 record, he would be owed 50% as opposed to 75% of his remaining contract – a significant drop from the $16.1 million it would have cost Arkansas to let him go in November of last year.
However, for the purposes of his buyout, the 3-7 COVID season is not included in his current contract. That means his record for those purposes is actually 20-18. In this context, a 2-4 record to the start the season would put Pittman at 22-22 overall, meaning he’d still be owed 75% of his remaining salary at that point.
So, if Hunter Yurachek feels he needs to make an in-season firing, he almost certainly wouldn’t do in the exact situation that the Next Round guys outlined. Instead, he could just wait until Pittman’s overall record dips below to below .500, whether that be after a theoretical loss to Tennessee dropping Arkansas to 2-5 or even later at the bye week on Nov. 10. (That’s when Chad Morris was fired in 2019.)
Still, it would not be surprising to see Petrino be made interim head coach at some point and, with a huge upset down the homestretch, actually land the full-time position.
The UA brass has already made an exception for Bobby Petrino to bring him back into the program despite red tape that forbade re-hiring those fired for cause. If he proved himself as the interim over the course of a few weeks, that would make an eventual return to head coach all the more feasible with the public and any power players still on the fence about the prospect of a Pittman-to-Petrino succession.
Americans, after all, are more than willing to welcome black sheep back into the fold. As the Next Round guys point out, Snoop Dogg and his multiple arrests for drug and gun possession, is a perfect case in point for that.
If NBC can send Snoop Dogg to Paris to broadcast him as the face of the United States during these Olympics, Arkansas can definitely rehire a grandfather of eight whose stupid hiring of Jessica Dorrell and motorcycle crash set Arkansas down a path it’s still recovering from.
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Team Speed Takes Big Jump from 2023 to 2024
For Petrino’s offense to truly cook, he’s going to need plenty of speedsters who can serve as home run threats.
In terms of sheer speed, Arkansas looks a lot better equipped this season than it did last fall. Indeed, from last year to this year, the number of Razorbacks who can run at least 22 mph has gone up from four to 11, according to Ben Sowders, the Arkansas football strength and conditioning coach. That includes quarterback Taylen Green, receiver Tyrone Broden (22.56) and Andrew Armstrong, as well as defensive back TJ Metcalf.
In Monday’s press conference, Sowders went through some of the others off the top of his head: “Doneiko Slaughter hit 22 multiple times this summer. Who else? You got Dazmin James at wideout, 22.49, Jordan Anthony at 22, he’s finally starting to get healthy going into camp so we’re looking forward to having him. He’s a world class speed guy.”
Indeed, Anthony is the fastest football Razorback ever.
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Catch the entire breakdown of the Petrino for Pittman prediction here:
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