Expect Bulldogs’ Huge Loss to Help Arkansas in At Least 3 Ways

Travis Williams, Arkansas football, Arkansas vs Mississippi State
photo credit: Craven Whitlow

As a change of pace from last week, it looks like the injury gods are now smiling down on Arkansas.

Heading into the Razorbacks’ game last Saturday, LSU got the news that its standout receiver C.J. Daniels would return from injury after missing the previous tilt vs Ole Miss. That ended up hurting the Hogs in a big way as Daniels led LSU in receiving en route to a blowout win.

This week, however, the tables have turned.

Arkansas’ upcoming opponent Mississippi State will likely be without a key piece of its offense on Saturday, as CBS Sports’ Matt Zenitz reports that freshman wide receiver Mario Craver will miss the game with a “lower body injury.”

Craver left last week’s loss to Texas A&M in the second half with the injury. He had five receptions on six targets for 42 yards and a touchdown before getting hurt.

For the year, the 5-foot-10 Craver has snagged 16 of his 30 targets for 355 yards and three touchdowns. The Birmingham native’s 355 yards are second on the team, and his 22.2 yards per reception is the second-most in the SEC. He’s been Mississippi State’s top deep threat, catching passes of 72, 54, 46 and 45 yards this season.

Mario Craver has played a significant role in Mississippi State’s offensive improvement over the last few weeks, as freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren has been excellent on throws down the field. Craver has caught five of 11 targets that traveled at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage this year for 254 yards, an average of 51 yards per reception and 23 yards per target.

(UPDATE: Mississippi State has officially tagged Craver as “questionable” for the Arkansas game, according to the initial SEC availability report released Wednesday night.)

Where Does Mississippi State Turn Without Mario Craver?

Mario Craver leads the team in snaps at outside receiver, according to Pro Football Focus. The Bulldogs’ leading receiver, Kevin Coleman, lines up in the slot, and State has only two other proven options on the outside.

Kelly Akharaiyi, the other starter at wide receiver, is likely Craver’s replacement as a deep threat, but he hasn’t been nearly as explosive. On throws that traveled 20 or more yards, Akharaiyi has caught just two of six targets for 59 yards this year.

Junior Jordan Mosley, whom Craver replaced as starter, will likely take back his starting job on Saturday. Mosley caught five passes for 104 yards in the opener, but gradually ceded snaps and targets to Craver. In Van Buren’s three starts at quarterback, he’s recorded one reception on four targets for three yards.

After Mosley, there’s not much depth. The next guy in terms of snap count is sophomore Creed Whittemore, but he announced after the Florida game that he was taking a redshirt for this season. The Bulldogs’ next leading receiver in terms of snaps played on the outside is freshman Braylon Burnside, who actually has negative receiving yards this year (a stat someone may want to tell this fan).

How Does This Affect Arkansas’ Strategy?

We mentioned in our analysis of this matchup that Arkansas’ defense would likely focus on taking away the deep ball to force Mississippi State to go on long drives, something it hasn’t been great at this year due to struggles on third down and in the red zone.

In the breakout performance against Georgia, for example, the Bulldogs recorded a 72-yard touchdown pass (to Mario Craver) and a 35-yard touchdown pass. The other two touchdown drives each included multiple pass completions of at least 19 yards. The seven drives that failed to complete a pass of at least 19 yards ended with just three points, and four of them were three-and-outs. The injury to Craver will definitely help the Hogs in limiting those big passes.

Arkansas’ top cornerback Jaylon Braxton has missed the last five games and will continue to be out until at least after the second open date. That means the expected No. 2 corner – Marquise Robinson – has had to guard the other teams’ alpha receivers.

Against LSU, for instance, Robinson followed top LSU deep threat Kyren Lacy all over the field. Razorback fans might have been frustrated with Robinson’s soft coverage, but if the goal was to prevent big plays it worked. Lacy caught five of eight targets against Robinson for just 42 yards, averaging barely five yards per target. His longest reception was for 11 yards.

With Craver out, Arkansas’ secondary gets the benefit of dealing with a lighter load overall. Robinson would have likely been assigned to Craver, but now gets to shift down to less explosive threats. Perhaps the “next man up” here for Mississippi State is Kelly Akharaiyi.

It’s also worth monitoring the extent to which Craver’s absence emboldens Arkansas defensive coordinator Travis Williams to bring more pressure.

Blitzing Van Buren has had mixed results: he’s 14 of 34 for 183 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions against the blitz this year, and he’s only been sacked three times in those scenarios, according to PFF. He likes to attack downfield when blitzed: his average throw travels 15 yards downfield on blitzes, compared to less than 12 yards on non-blitz throws. Without his top downfield target, can the Hogs blitz with reduced risk of giving up a big play?

In all likelihood, the answer here is “yes.”

How to Watch Arkansas vs Mississippi State

Date: Saturday, Oct. 26

Location: Davis Wade Stadium (Starkville, Miss.)

Kickoff time (TV): 11:45 a.m. CT (SEC Network)

Commentators: Dave Neal (play-by-play), Aaron Murray (analyst), Ashley ShahAhmadi (sideline reporter)

ESPN FPI: Arkansas has an 60.2% chance to win.

Odds/Betting Line: Arkansas, -6.5 | O/U 58 (BetSaracen)

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