Arkansas has a chance to finish above .500 on Saturday in the Liberty Bowl. The opponent is Texas Tech, a program on the rise after an 8-4 season under third-year coach Joey McGuire.
Under normal circumstances, this game projects as a shootout that favors the Hogs. The Razorbacks in particular have to like the matchup against a Red Raider defense that is, by most advanced metrics, worse than every SEC defense Arkansas faced this year other than Mississippi State.
But, of course, there are no normal circumstances here. Both teams have been affected by opt-outs and transfers. Arkansas is missing more than 20 regular contributors and will have only three or four starters on offense. The Red Raiders have fewer personnel losses, but they will be missing a 3,300-yard quarterback in Behren Morton because of injury.
With all the missing players, this game may come down to motivation more than matchups.
Depleted Razorback Offense Has Chance to Show Out
Arkansas will give extended looks to young offensive linemen, wide receivers and running backs in this game. With few proven contributors outside of Taylen Green suiting up, fans may worry about how well the Hogs can move the football.
Thankfully for the Hogs, the Red Raiders may not be able to take advantage of Arkansas’ inexperienced personnel. Pro Football Focus gives them a team defense grade of 68, worse than every SEC team except Mississippi State. They would be dead-last in the SEC in both run defense and tackling grades.
The big weakness? Early downs. Opponents have been able to stay on schedule and get yards in chunks on first and second down. If the Red Raiders can get into third down, they can get off the field, as they are a top-25 defense in third down conversion percentage.
But they don’t force enough third downs: 51% of all first downs against Texas Tech end with the offense creating a new first down or scoring before reaching third down, good for 113th out of 134 FBS teams.
With a receiving corps consisting of Isaac TeSlaa and a bunch of guys with very little action in their careers, the Razorbacks would probably like to run the ball. The Hogs ended the regular season still leading the FBS in percentage of run plays to gain 10 or more yards. If the makeshift offensive line is up to the challenge, that could be Arkansas’ path to victory, as the Red Raider defense was torched several times on the ground this year.
Explosive running backs have shown out against Tech: Ollie Gordon II had 15 carries for 156 yards and three touchdowns, while Baylor’s Bryson Washington had 10 carries for 116 yards and two scores.
But the run defense has had plenty of highlights. Tech shut down Arizona State star Cam Skattebo in an upset win, while former Razorback Isaiah Augustave had 10 carries for 32 yards for Colorado in their matchup against this defense.
That was also the game from which Travis Hunter, the eventual Heisman Trophy winner, took home a carb-rich souvenir thanks to Texas Tech’s tortilla-tossing tradition dating back to the early 1990s:
Sam Pittman confirmed that Braylen Russell is back with the team and will play, so that gives the Hogs four scholarship backs. Russell and Rodney Hill will get their chances. Ja’Quinden Jackson generated a ton of explosive runs, but a lot of explosives are scheme-driven, as evidenced by guys like Rashod Dubinion (unexplosive for his entire career) suddenly starting to generate them this season.
However, the Hogs may want to check out film of Tech’s defense against Washington State. Cougar quarterback John Mateer (who is now transferring to Oklahoma) was the only true dual-threat quarterback that Tech faced this season, and it didn’t go well for the Red Raiders.
Mateer isn’t as athletic as Green, but is still a very dangerous runner. The 197 yards on 21 rushes he put up in a 37-16 win over the Red Raiders shows that loud and clear.
While that Sept. 7 outcome was disappointing for Texas Tech, their fan support wasn’t.
Jacob Rodriguez, the Red Raiders’ all-conference linebacker, said that some of his team’s followers made the 1,200-mile trip to Pullman, Wash., and smuggled tortillas into the Cougars’ stadium.
On Tuesday, he was asked if he expected the same such subterfuge for the Liberty Bowl.
“Oh, a hundred percent,” he responded. “I don’t think we’ve ever gone to a game where they haven’t.”
Technically, flinging soft tortillas onto the field is a violation of NCAA rules regarding unsportsmanlike conduct or delay of game. As such, a team could be penalized for the violation or the conference could also issue a fine to the university.
Indeed “officials have had to pause games because tortilla debris posed a hazard to athletes,” according to the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Brandi Addison.
On top of that, tortillas can serve as a sort of “gateway projectile” to harder stuff such as water bottles. It was the fans’ flinging of water bottles that prompted Joey McGuire to chastise his own people in the Colorado-Texas Tech game.
The Texas Tech football program, to be clear, does not allow fans to bring tortillas into the Red Raiders’ home games. So they must smuggle their precious corn products instead.
On the field, look for the Red Raiders to continue the camouflaging theme by looking for ways to disguise their defenses against Taylen Green.
In the chess match unfolding between Bobby Petrino and Texas Tech defensive coordinator Shiel Wood, one would assume the latter to employ a spy against Green. But that would mean that TTU must take a guy out of coverage or out of the pass rush, and the Red Raiders can’t really afford to do either of those.
Their coverage isn’t very good as it is: they allow 305 passing yards per game, second-worst in the FBS. FCS Abilene Christian (!!!) threw for 506 yards, while Cincinnati and TCU each topped 340.
The secondary has been bad, but it starts with a lack of a four-man rush. Tech’s 186 pass pressures are on the low end of Arkansas’ opponents this year, and a huge number of those are from blitzing linebackers. If we listed every SEC-plus-Tech defensive lineman who had 50-plus pass rush snaps this year by total pressures, the highest-ranked Red Raider would be Amier Washington, whose 15 pressures would be 57th on our list. Every SEC team has at least one player with more.
So Tech probably doesn’t want either starting linebacker to spy on the quarterback, since they are needed for the rush. Starting linebackers Ben Roberts and Jacob Rodriguez are tied for the team lead in pressures this year with 17 each, and Rodriguez leads the team with six sacks.
The linebackers are also the weak point of coverage. Roberts is the team’s highest-graded run defender, but bad things happen when he drops back. He’s been targeted 29 times this year, allowing 26 catches for 435 yards and five touchdowns. He’s given up a reception of 30-plus yards in five games.
Some of the highlights against him include this score by TCU (second play in the clip), where Roberts is supposed to be the Tampa-2 defender (deep middle), but he’s not anywhere near the receiver when the ball is thrown:
The cornerbacks haven’t been good in coverage either. The top corner, Maurion Horn, hasn’t allowed a ton of yards, but he’s been targeted 72 times and allowed five touchdowns and no interceptions. The other starting corner, Bralyn Lux, has been lit up at times (32 catches on 53 targets for 500 yards). Nickel AJ McCarty has struggled with missed tackles: PFF has him at 13 missed coverage tackles and 184 yards after catch on 29 receptions.
The Tech secondary’s best hope on the back end is picking off errant throws. They have 14 interceptions on the season, which is pretty good, so that’s a watch-out for the turnover-prone Green. The starting safeties – CJ Baskerville and Chapman Lewis – have four and three, respectively, and they are the top-graded coverage guys.
Tech likes to keep the safeties deep, so look for the Hogs to target the cornerbacks on the outside and the linebackers over the middle. A tight end would be great to have against those linebackers, but unfortunately, blocking specialist Andreas Paaske and former walk-on Maddox Lassiter are the only scholarship tight ends available, with Shamar Easter moving to receiver. Look for Arkansas to use four-wide sets to get McCarty and Roberts into coverage matchups against Arkansas’ fastest receivers.
Here, CJ Brown and Isaac TeSlaa are obvious starters, while Pittman confirmed that Tyrone Broden will play but Jordan Anthony will not on account of a family matter. In the slot, the Hogs may turn to some of the speed that Petrino brought in during the offseason, with guys like Krosse Johnson getting some looks. Tech’s tackling in space is very shaky, so short throws could become big gainers with fast guys.
Dangerous Texas Tech Offense
As bad as Texas Tech’s defense is, its offense is good. Or at least, it was during the regular season. The pass-happy Red Raiders are recalling the Mike Leach offenses of old, with starting quarterback Behran Morton topping 300 passing yards in four separate games. Tech put up 50 points four times this year.
It’s a classic Air Raid, using a lot of four-wide looks with wide spacing aimed at isolating coverage guys one-on-one. Tech is content to dink-and-dunk with short throws, but will attack down the field against the right looks. Arkansas has really struggled to stop this kind of offense all year, and without safety TJ Metcalf and top pass rusher Landon Jackson, slowing this offense down appears to be a tall order.
Tech will throw the ball a lot, even with freshman Will Hammond making his first career start after Morton’s recent shoulder surgery. Hammond completed 10 of 15 passes for 121 yards and a touchdown filling in for Morton in a loss to TCU, but that’s about it for experience.
Unlike the classic Leach offenses, Tech is fine with running the ball. The Red Raiders are actually pretty good at it, because they have Tahj Brooks. The senior rushed for 1,503 yards on 5.3 yards per carry this year, and he’s topped 100 yards in every single game. He’s a shifty runner who is great in space and difficult to bring down.
The scheme is run-friendly because of the offense’s spacing and pass-heavy tendencies, so he’s getting an excellent cushion of 2.3 yards before contact per rush this year and he rarely faces stacked boxes.
As of Tuesday, it’s still not clear if Brooks is going to play or opt out to focus on the NFL Draft. He’s still listed on Tech’s official depth chart and apparently traveled with the team to Memphis, so Arkansas is probably preparing as though he is. He’s used to thriving while not being the focal point, but Arkansas might place some extra emphasis on stopping him with a freshman quarterback in the game.
Tech has only a few opt-outs, and the other major one is leading receiver Josh Kelly, who had more than 1,000 yards this year and is off to the NFL. But unlike the Razorbacks, whose portal entrants have all left the team, the Red Raiders still have guys in the portal on their roster. These include reserve receivers Jordan Brown and Brady Boyd, who combined for 12 catches this year.
What to Watch For in Arkansas vs Texas Tech
Arkansas is going to get a lot of looks for young guys. Wide receivers CJ Brown and Krosse Johnson and offensive linemen Kobe Branham and Brooks Edmonson are notable names on offense, while Quincy Rhodes Jr. and Charlie Collins are notable defenders. This is a chance for a lot of these guys to gain an advantage against the new transfer portal adds for starting roles in the spring, so expect everyone who’s stepping up for this game to be motivated.
If Arkansas’ offensive line and receivers are able to play well – a big if, given all the attrition – then the Hogs should have no problems moving the football against a Tech defense that does not match up well against them. Ideally, the Hogs would produce several explosive runs, while Taylen Green would either have ample time to throw or clear lanes to scramble.
Schematically, I do think Arkansas will at least try to go big and out-physical the Red Raiders up front. If that doesn’t consistently work, then the Hogs might play without a tight end, matching Tech’s offense with four wide receivers to take advantage of Tech’s poor tackling in space. That might be a way for Arkansas’ receivers to get into a rhythm.
Defensively, it’s going to come down to how ready Hammond is for his moment. If Brooks isn’t playing, there’s going to be a heavy weight on his shoulders, but either way he’s going to have to make some throws against a mostly-intact Razorback secondary.
Expect the Hogs to go back to a lot of Dime with three down linemen. Being down both starting defensive ends and a defensive tackle certainly factors into that, but Tech’s passing game – especially with Morton running the show – would likely shred the Razorbacks’ normal secondary anyway. The Hogs will probably cook up some exotic blitz packages to try and force Hammond into mistakes.
Both defenses will likely have to bring pressure in order to get stops. The winner might be the defense that gets home most often.
I can see it going either way, but will call it for Texas Tech 31-27.
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