Arkansas let a top-25 win slip away. Again.
How would you describe watching the Arkansas football game against Texas A&M Saturday afternoon? Hello darkness my old friend. Déjà vu. A swift punch in the nuts. The annual Texas A&M debacle happened again.
I realized some time Saturday night that listening to Sam Pittman’s press conference, staring at stats on ESPN.com or watching breakdowns of the game on YouTube will not change the final score. In an effort to ease my sorrow, I fired up the old Sergio Leone classic, “The Good, The Bad and The Ugly”.
I used to own the movie Quentin Tarantino describes as “the greatest achievement in the history of cinema” on VHS. (For the younger readers, a VHS tape was…never mind. I am older than dirt.)
About the time Clint Eastwood’s character Blondie leaves his erstwhile partner to die, I realized this movie sums up the Arkansas football game. To be fair, few things in life are not summed up by “The Good, The Bad and The Ugly.”
THE GOOD
“I’ve Never Seen So Many Men Wasted So Badly.” – Blondie (Clint Eastwood)
After a game like this, it is easy to forget there were bright spots for your team. But there were bright spots.
LANDON JACKSON
Landon Jackson looked like the best player on the field for stretches during the game. What are the chances we have another defensive end ranked No. 2 on Mel Kiper’s draft board next season? Great player for the Hogs who seems like a general all-around good guy. I’m already missing him next year.
(Although I am excited about the future of sophomore Quincy Rhodes Jr. in Fayetteville. Tip of the hat to DJ Williams for highlighting some of his play against Auburn here.)
ISAAC TESLAA
The pride of Hudsonville, Mich., enjoyed a breakout performance Saturday afternoon. If TeSlaa continues to develop, Arkansas may have another option for Taylen Green to lean on in addition to the superb Andrew Armstrong. Armstrong’s back must be sore after carrying the load all year at receiver. Throw in Isaiah Sategna’s big-play ability and Arkansas could have a decent receiving trio here on out.
DEVIN BALE
A gutsy call by Sam Pittman led to what would have been the play of the game had Arkansas won. On fourth-and-15, the Arkansas punter broke off a 25-yard run on a fake punt to extend the drive, which led to Arkansas’ second touchdown of the first quarter. Everything was looking up for the good guys at this point of the game. (On top of that, he averaged a solid 43.8 yards on six punts.)
THE BAD
“You See In This World There’s Two Kinds Of People, My Friend – Those With Loaded Guns, And Those Who Dig. You Dig.” – Blondie (Clint Eastwood)
ARKANSAS ABILITY TO KEEP DEFENDERS OUT OF THE BACKFIELD
Others have covered this better and in greater detail. But suffice it to say, when your star wide receiver almost comes to blows with an offensive lineman, it is a bad sign.
Randy Rainwater laid out the stats in his Fifth Quarter postgame show: Texas A&M had 10 tackles for loss and (officially) eight quarterback hurries on Saturday. It all feels so familiar for an Arkansas fan, triggering memories of last year’s face plant against Texas A&M. Around midnight after that game, a friend texted me: “KJ Jefferson just got sacked again.” It was a good line.
Same song, different season. Is it a lack of talent? Coaching? What must happen to give your skill players the time to make play? It is all so baffling and frustrating. How much of the blame can go to Arkansas’ projected starting left guard Patrick Kutas being out with an injury? Last season he was described as having the most upside of the offensive linemen.
A related but slightly different issue is the continued problem of snapping the ball to Taylen Green. Arkansas center Addison Nichols seemed to improve on snaps in the second half, but still had one extremely wild one in the first half. Sam Pittman addressed the issue in his press conference.
“I just think that he took something off the snap,” Pittman said. “Most of the time it’s when he goes to his left. Yeah, he had one down there on the far end zone, our end zone that I can remember. … One was definitely wide and I talked to him and Eric [Mateos] talked to him. That’s one too many and we’ve got to get it fixed. He’s trying awful hard. He’s a good kid. We’ve got to have consistency there.”
This is another case of déjà vu for Arkansas football fans since similar problems have occurred in previous games. The snap is one of the few plays in the sport that the opponent cannot physically affect, so it’s theoretically also one of the most easily fixable. As Randy Rainwater commented on his radio show after hearing Pittman’s quote in the press conference, “How many more times do we need to hear that? What does it take to get it fixed?”
ARKANSAS RUNNING GAME
Not unrelated to the previous paragraph. Still, it bodes ill for the rest of the season that our punter was our leading rusher for most of the game.
LUKE HASZ’S BACK
After tight end Luke Hasz caught a pass for a two-yard gain, he left the game holding his back for the second week in a row. As I mentioned last week, I really want to see more of Hasz succeeding in Razorback Red.
THE UGLY
“God’s Not On Our Side Because He Hates Idiots, Also.” – Blondie (Clint Eastwood)
TURNOVERS
Obviously not all turnovers are created equal. But in the case of Arkansas football, almost every turnover could be described as somewhere between “backbreaking” and “why even play the game if you are just going to give the ball to other team so deep in Arkansas territory it seems better to just let the other team score and try again.” Taylen Green’s second quarter fumble just 10 yards away from his own endzone in the second quarter was the latter. While his interception at the end of the first half was merely the former. The fumble with 1:30 left in the fourth quarter was somewhere in between.
BIG PLAYS
Mel Kiper Jr. caused a bit of a stir last week suggesting the NFL ban the two-high coverage defensive scheme. NFL coaches are increasingly relying on this defensive scheme to avoid giving up big plays. Or they aren’t. It is debatable like everything Kiper says. Which is the reason he says things. But I digress. At some point, I read an article about the kerfuffle where it mentioned advanced analytics in the NFL has determined giving up big plays kill your chances to win a football game. Which must be one of the most “No S*** Sherlock” pieces of information ever produced by advanced analytics. But Saturday’s game in Arlington provides a perfect example of this being the case.
Arkansas gave up a number of big plays that killed its chances of winning. Literally killed them.
Don’t believe me? Well luckily ESPN provides a play-by-play win probability for every college football game. Prior to Texas A&M completing a 58-yard touchdown pass on first-and-10, Arkansas had a 60% chance to win the game. After the touchdown, Arkansas’ chances fell to 47%.
In the fourth quarter with Arkansas nursing a three-point lead, it had climbed back to a 57% chance to win. Texas A&M ran for 46 yards on three plays and Arkansas slid all the way down to 35%.
Without those four plays, Arkansas wins the game. Without the worst turnover, Arkansas wins the game. Without one of the other two turnovers, Arkansas has a strong chance to win the game.
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