Artificial intelligence is all the rage these days. If you need confirmation of that, just open Twitter and scroll for five seconds and you’re sure to find some AI-generated content gold.
But don’t think AI will surpass people in matters of discretion and deep knowledge any time soon. Fortunately for the humans, the computers have proven themselves to be pretty inept at a lot of things – especially trying to rank football teams. Those mothballed BCS rankings of yore conjured up some head-scratching calculations over the years before being replaced by the College Football Playoff. The CFP committee has been subject to plenty of human errors over the years, but most fans can agree the champion-crowning process has improved.
ESPN Algorithms Unleash a Head-scratcher
Luckily, ESPN seems to be following in the BCS’ boneheaded footsteps as its Football Power Index (FPI) has shown many times recently.
As you’re all well aware and likely tired of hearing, Arkansas football lost this weekend! And they shouldn’t have! When you outgain your opponent by 263 yards and hold Oklahoma State’s Heisman hopeful running back to less than 50 rushing yards, you expect to win.
And yet, after multiple missed field goals, multiple muffed punts, multiple fumbles and some questionable clock management – Arkansas found a way to blow its 14-point halftime lead. Take a drink if you’ve heard that story before.
The Hogs are far from a Top 25 team in the realm of public opinion, especially after pissing away the game in Stillwater. ESPN’s genius computers, however, go in an entirely different direction.
Despite the result, Arkansas actually rose seven spots in the FPI, up to No. 23 in the nation. Setting aside the context of the second-half disaster, it’s understandable for the Hogs to get some credit for taking a ranked team to the brink on the road – until you see where Oklahoma State landed.
The Pokes, laughably, stayed put at their previous ranking of No. 27 – behind Arkansas.
My goodness. Maybe we humans can survive the technological apocalypse after all. While the Cowboys didn’t cover the spread against Arkansas, and certainly didn’t perform up to par in the first half, staving off an SEC team in an early-season clash at the very least merits a bump up – and they certainly shouldn’t be ranked behind the Hogs in any metric taking into account the entire team.
The nonsense continued with FPI’s future projections for the Razorbacks’ remaining games.
FPI’s Math is a Head-Scratcher for Arkansas Football
ESPN also uses its index to offer odds of victory for each game, so we can see how the computers “think” the rest of Arkansas’ campaign will turn out.
The Hogs have four games on the schedule for which the FPI gives them a slim chance of victory: Tennessee, Ole Miss, Texas and Missouri are all games in which Arkansas has less than 30% odds of winning. That sounds about right given those are all ranked opponents who have looked very strong so far, especially Tennessee and Texas, who both blew out ranked opponents this week.
Two games appear as toss ups, with a slight lean towards a Razorback defeat. Ironically, those are the Hogs’ first two conference games of the season against Auburn (44.4% odds) and Texas A&M (46.2%). Both teams have had shaky starts to the season, with the Tigers losing to a mediocre Cal team on Saturday and the Aggies falling to a Notre Dame squad that got taken down by Northern Illinois in week two.
Those matchups could easily go both ways, especially since neither is a home game for the Hogs. It’s not hyperbole to say the season likely will swing on those results. It’s the difference between entering the week six matchup against the Vols sitting at 2-3 vs. 4-1 – and that’s a massive difference.
Arkansas is “favored” – given a 50% or higher chance to win – in just four of its remaining games: UAB, Louisiana Tech, Mississippi State and No. 16 LSU. If you heard a record scratch sound effect when you read that last one, you’re not alone. The first three are pretty self-explanatory with two cupcake opponents and a Bulldog squad projected to be one of the worst in the SEC.
But the Tigers?
LSU Football’s Sluggish Start Not Enough to Justify ESPN’s Calculus
Don’t get me wrong, LSU doesn’t look nearly as good as it did last year when it was headlined by Heisman-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels. This year, the Tigers lost their season opener for the fifth year in a row, this time to USC.
They were underwhelming in their bounceback opportunity against Nicholls State, as well, giving up 21 points to the FCS school and not even getting close to covering the 46.5-point spread, winning by a score of 44-21.
Still, the Tigers boast a really talented squad after winning 10 games last year. New starting quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is no Daniels, but he’s thrown for 601 yards and eight touchdowns across the first two games – so the offense is still humming.
It’s worth questioning if Arkansas should really be favored in that game. Sure, it’s in Razorback Stadium, but there’s a lot of factors going the Tigers’ way. Except for one variable that hasn’t been considered yet…
Louisiana Faces Retribution for Saints’ Club Dub Stunt
Forgive me, I should have put a trigger warning before that subheading. Arkansas fans might have thought the phrase “Club Dub” was dead and buried forever after all the vitriol that came its way during Chad Morris’ reign of terror in Fayetteville, but the world’s corniest victory celebration is back.
You heard that right. The New Orleans Saints busted out a rehash of the infamous postgame party after their blowout season-opening victory after the rival Carolina Panthers, a 47-10 drubbing. Viewer discretion is advised…
The Saints’ over-the-top celebrations after beating one of the worst teams in the NFL is eerily similar to Arkansas’ original rendition of “Club Dub” after defeating Colorado State in 2019. The Hogs heavily encouraged to dance the night away in the locker room despite allowing 34 points to a Group of Five school that beat them the previous season.
The foundation was set for the second consecutive 2-10 campaign to follow.
I spent a few minutes scouring the Saints coaching staff looking for any Chad Morris connections but didn’t find any – so how on Earth did these jokers come up with this genius idea? As a Saints fan whose entire family was born in Louisiana, it pains me to see this Mickey Mouse sh*t going on. Upon close inspection, Saints head coach Dennis Allen does bear a noticeable resemblance to Morris. Long lost clown brothers, perhaps?
So how does this relate to LSU and computer-generated rankings? Well, it’s possible the Saints’ sin was so great that the entire state of Louisiana had to be punished for it. Maybe ESPN’s machines are factoring in the secondhand embarrassment of the Cajun people to LSU’s chances against Arkansas – that’s the only explanation that makes sense.
The football gods have to punish Louisiana somehow for digging up the grave of the cringiest part of arguably the worst coaching tenure in college sports history.
Meanwhile, LSU head coach Brian Kelly hasn’t stooped down to those levels yet – though his viral dance moves sure came disturbingly close:
In October, Arkansas will have the chance to kill the spirit of Club Dub once and for all when Kelly’s Tigers come to town.
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John Nabors dives into why Arkansas football can’t seem to close out games under Sam Pittman:
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More coverage of Arkansas football from BoAS:
