Arkansas football hits the road for its SEC opener Saturday. The Razorbacks will be on the Plains against Auburn, a team off to a shaky start in Hugh Freeze’s second season. After an easy win over Alabama A&M, the Tigers lost a shocker 21-14 to Cal at home before righting the ship on Saturday in a 45-19 win against New Mexico that was actually a bit closer than the final score indicated.
Razorback fans might feel that Freeze has the Hogs circled on his schedule every year. His Liberty Flames stunned the Hogs 21-19 in Fayetteville in 2022, and his Tigers routed the Hogs 48-10 last year. That may be related to the fact that Freeze lost his last three games against the Razorbacks when he was at Ole Miss, including the 2015 game that cost the Rebels an SEC West title.
Sam Pittman needs to make sure this game is circled for his team as well, as Arkansas really needs a strong start to SEC play before the competition gets even more severe.
Freeze’s Gamble with Auburn Football
Hugh Freeze’s first Auburn team finished a disappointing 6-7. The Tigers were competitive in big games (27-20 to Georgia, 28-21 to Ole Miss, 27-24 to Alabama), but also suffered a stunning 31-10 loss to New Mexico State. The defense was mostly solid, and a rushing attack led by Jarquez Hunter moved the ball well, but the big issue was the passing game.
Michigan State transfer quarterback Payton Thorne struggled to push the ball down the field. Auburn didn’t get many big plays through the air, and its offense was doomed if it fell behind the chains, ranking 114th out of 133 FBS teams in conversion rate on passing downs (“passing downs” include third-and-long and two-minute drill).
While Thorne wasn’t popular with the fans, it wasn’t all his fault. There’s only so much a quarterback can do when he’s running for his life. The Tigers ranked 12th in the SEC in sack rate, with Thorne going down on 12% of his dropbacks. Only KJ Jefferson and Jalen Milroe were sacked more often among SEC starters last year.
So rather than find a new quarterback in the portal, Freeze took a gamble by sticking with Thorne, and focusing Auburn’s portal pickups on bolstering the offensive line and receiving corps.
But after just two games, the gamble went bust. Thorne was sacked three times against Cal, but the bigger issue was the four interceptions he threw in that loss. Freeze had finally seen enough, and redshirt freshman Hank Brown made his first career start last week against New Mexico. He ended up with a solid stat line: 17 of 25 for 235 yards, four touchdowns, zero turnovers and no sacks.
Most promising for Auburn was the five explosive passes (completions of 20+ yards), a rate of 19%, more than double what Thorne was able to generate a year ago. Brown has a good arm and delivered an excellent deep ball on his second drive.
He also did a nice job of moving through his progressions, like on this throw where he hitches and finds his second option on the other side of the field.
But that was against New Mexico, a team expected to finish at the bottom of the FBS. You probably noticed in the second clip that Brown had a perfect pocket and all day to throw, something that Thorne hasn’t always had against better defenses. Due to injuries and poor play, the Tigers shuffled up their offensive line last week, and it’s not clear if veteran right tackle Izavion Miller will be back for this matchup.
Can Auburn’s Defense Stop the Hogs?
Defense is usually something Auburn does well, which makes the poor start to the year surprising. Now Tiger defensive coordinator DJ Durkin has to find a way to stop a guy who knows him well. Durkin and Arkansas offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino were both on Jimbo Fisher’s staff at Texas A&M last season, so there should be plenty of familiarity on both sides.
Durkin has been around college football for a while. He made his name as defensive coordinator at Florida and Michigan in the 2010s, and after a disastrous stint as head coach at Maryland that ended with his firing in 2018 over the death of a player during practice, he’s now in his fifth straight season in the SEC. He was Lane Kiffin’s first defensive coordinator at Ole Miss (2020-21) and Fisher’s last at Texas A&M (2022-23), and he’s now in his first season under Freeze.
Durkin’s best defenses are very aggressive and can create a lot of negative plays. They are also generally difficult to throw on due to pressure and very tight coverages. Durkin is a classic SEC defensive coordinator in that he loves to make use of big, athletic defensive linemen who can create havoc at the line of scrimmage.
When a Durkin defense goes south, it’s usually because the defensive line isn’t up to par, and that shows in the run defense department. Unfortunately for him, that’s been a recurring issue since his return to the SEC. Both of his Ole Miss defenses were atrocious against the run (Hog fans may remember the Razorbacks rushing for 350 yards in Oxford in 2021), and his first Texas A&M defense ranked 124th nationally and last in the SEC with 218.3 rushing yards allowed per game.
Through three games, Durkin appears to be following the same pattern at Auburn. California wasn’t able to run much on Auburn, but New Mexico averaging 6.0 yards per rush last week is a very big red flag. The Tigers allowed eight runs of 10-plus yards and now rank 118th in the FBS in that stat. That could be a problem on Saturday: through three weeks, 29% of Arkansas’ non-sack rushing attempts have gained at least 10 yards, which is the best in the FBS by a very large margin. Ja’Quinden Jackson has gained 10-plus yards on 56% of his rushes, also best in the FBS among runners with 20 or more attempts.
Auburn’s defensive linemen are big, but not overly quick. Notice in this clip how long it takes them to get pressure with a 3-man rush (and then notice how easily the New Mexico quarterback evades them):
Can Arkansas Throw It?
The Razorback passing attack didn’t look good against UAB. Taylen Green was not very accurate on many of his throws. He completed just 11 of 26 attempts with an ugly interception and a couple other throws that could have (or should have) been picked off.
When Green was accurate, drops were a problem, with Tyrone Broden in particular seeing the ball hit him in the hands multiple times. At one point in the fourth quarter, Green had nine completions: seven to Andrew Armstrong, and two to Isaiah Sategna. On paper, the Hogs have a deep receiver room with big, physical options on the outside. In practice, if other guys don’t catch the ball, defenses will focus even more on Armstrong.
Auburn’s secondary hasn’t been dominant against the pass despite facing two bad offenses. Cal’s Fernando Mendoza completed 25 of 36 attempts for 235 yards and two touchdowns with no picks, mostly sticking to short, safe throws like what we saw UAB do against the Hogs. New Mexico was a bit more aggressive, with Devon Dampier completing 22 of 44 attempts for a season-high 291 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.
Dampier’s athleticism proved to be a challenge for the Auburn pass defense, which may bode well for the elusive Green. Former Arkansas quarterback Clint Stoerner pointed out after the UAB game that much of Green’s production has come on improvised plays and not within the design of the offense. That may ultimately be a concern, but quarterback improvisation can also be a great way to generate big plays like this one.
Durkin probably isn’t enjoying watching two bad offenses both manage 20 completions and 200 passing yards against his defense. While pressure is a hallmark of a Durkin defense, the Tigers aren’t getting much. They failed to sack Dampier on Saturday and sacked Mendoza just twice in 38 dropbacks.
Uncharacteristically, Durkin isn’t blitzing much, possibly due to concerns about his secondary’s ability to cover without help. Starting cornerback Kayin Lee didn’t play against New Mexico due to a calf strain, forcing some guys lower on the depth chart to get key snaps. It’s not clear if Lee will play against Arkansas or how close to 100% he’ll be.
What to Watch in Arkansas vs Auburn
On defense, I would expect the Hogs to replicate their Stillwater strategy: stop the star running back and force the quarterback to beat you. Jarquez Hunter is a great back and the Razorbacks would rather force Hank Brown to make some plays. Alan Bowman ultimately made the plays to win for his team, but Bowman is a seventh-year senior and Brown is a redshirt freshman making his second career start.
Pressure from the defensive line will also be key. That unit was initially assumed to be a team strength, but has struggled to consistently pressure the passer. After not sacking Bowman at all, the line managed only one sack against UAB, though pressure from Landon Jackson did force the final interception. If the Hogs don’t get much pressure, that could be a problem, as Auburn does have some talented receivers.
Offensively, the Hogs have reason to believe that they can punish Auburn’s run defense, especially when it comes to explosive runs. But they’ll need the passing game to do its part to keep the Tiger defense from loading up the box. Turnovers, in particular interceptable passes from Green, could turn this game one way or the other. The Tigers intercepted Dampier twice and are built to punish quarterbacks who make ill-advised throws.
***
Auburn plays mentioned above:
- 0:12 – Auburn’s 3-man rush can’t get pressure and then can’t tackle QB in space
- 2:51 – Hank Brown’s excellent deep ball
- 5:10 – Secondary busts coverage when QB extends with his legs
- 7:29 – Great protection, Brown hitches and goes to his second receiver for nice gain
More on Arkansas vs Auburn here:
***
Adam Ford is the author of the advanced stats-themed blog Fayette Villains and posts on X as @AdamFord92.
***
More coverage of Arkansas football from BoAS…
