Arkansas football begins a final three-game stretch Saturday at home against No. 3 Texas.
The Longhorns will be the third top-10 opponent and sixth top-25 opponent the Razorbacks have faced this year, but they might be the best overall team in that group. They’re in the hunt for an SEC title and first-round bye in the College Football Playoff, and the Hogs would love to spoil their chances at both.
Arkansas is a 16.5-point underdog on BetSaracen, but it’s hard to count the Hogs out against their old rivals. Since leaving the Southwest Conference in 1991, they are 4-2 against Texas football despite being underdogs in five of the six matchups. Arkansas victories as underdogs include the 2000 Cotton Bowl (27-6), the 2003 Ambush in Austin (38-28) and the 2021 thumping in Sam Pittman’s second season (40-21).
Texas football coach Steve Sarkisian likely hasn’t forgotten that beatdown in Fayetteville in his first season that ended with the field being stormed, so Arkansas should probably expect their foes on Saturday to be sufficiently motivated for the 11 a.m. CT kickoff, which will be televised on ABC.
The Texas Defense is Different Kind of Elite
The Razorbacks are no strangers to elite defenses this year. The SEC office saw fit to line up several for them on the schedule. But they haven’t seen a defense that gets the job done quite like Texas.
At a high level, the Longhorn numbers rival those of Texas A&M, Tennessee and Ole Miss. Texas actually leads the SEC in both points allowed per game (12.1) and yards allowed per game (251.0).
Only 30% of drives against Texas are “quality drives,” meaning they get a first down inside the Longhorn 40. That’s the best in the nation. The Horns snuff out opposing drives by being very good on early downs. In fact, they might have the best first- and second-down defense in the country. Teams with a first down against the Longhorns only convert or score before reaching third down 33% of the time, tops in the FBS.
As if dominating early downs wasn’t enough, the Longhorns are 12th in the FBS in turnover rate. They’ve picked off an SEC-best 14 passes this year. They also lead the conference in interception return yards with 171, including this big-man touchdown:
Unlike the dominant defensive fronts that Arkansas has seen this year – think Tennessee, Texas A&M, LSU and Ole Miss – the Longhorns get it done on the back end, especially in the secondary.
Trying to throw on Texas’ defense has been a nightmare for almost everyone. Opponents have combined for a 90.8 passer rating. That’s the best in the country. Also best in the country is Texas’s yards per pass attempt allowed (4.6). In addition to those SEC-best 14 interceptions, the Longhorns have broken up an SEC-best 22 passes, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Longhorns haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of quarterbacks. Mississippi State’s Michael Van Buren and Florida’s Aidan Warner were both freshmen making their first career start, and Michigan and Oklahoma have since benched the quarterbacks that started against Texas.
However, they’ve outclassed even the good gunslingers they’ve faced. Georgia’s Carson Beck completed 23 of 41 passes for 175 yards and three interceptions, one of which was initially ruled pass interference, but changed after Texas fans threw trash onto the field in protest:
There are no weaknesses among the defensive backs. The safety combo of Michael Taaffe and Andrew Mukuba is excellent, and top cornerback Jahdae Barron has been charged with just 134 passing yards allowed, with four breakups and three interceptions, per PFF.
All the same, some good news exists for the Razorbacks. There is a relatively weak link in Texas’ defensive armor given the Longhorn pass rush is merely very good, not dominant like that of Ole Miss or LSU. Texas is sixth in the SEC in sack rate, with 6.8% of opponent dropbacks ending in sacks, but that’s barely half the rates of the Rebels (11.9%) and Bayou Bengals (12.2%).
The Longhorn run defense is also very good. It doesn’t generate just a ton of negative runs, but Texas defenders prevent big runs, making it hard to rely on the run game to move the football.
The Razorbacks would love for Taylen Green to be healthy enough to run, as scrambles could be the best way to punish the Texas defense. Texas has faced only one quarterback who could be described as mobile: Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia, who recorded 67 rushing yards.
A combination of scrambles, a few good runs, and completing a few passes against a very good secondary is probably Arkansas’ best chance to move the football. If they can also avoid turnovers and penalties, they may generate enough offense to stay competitive in a low-scoring game.
Keys for the Arkansas Defense
Compared to its defense, the Texas offense has been much more pedestrian. Texas is very good at finishing good drives with points and converting third downs, but it’s had issues with turnovers and negative plays.
The passing attack is the bread-and-butter of Steve Sarkisian’s offense, which is a West Coast-style offense that emphasizes a lot of short, horizontal, timing-based throws. It’s about as far from a Bobby Petrino offense as it can be.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers presents a major matchup problem for the Razorback defense, which has struggled with short, efficient passing attacks all season – particularly against LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier. Ewers is the king of short, efficient passing.
The former five-star recruit’s average target is just 6.4 yards down the field, shortest of all SEC starting quarterbacks. About 32% of his pass attempts are to targets behind the line of scrimmage, the highest rate in the SEC (Taylen Green at 11% is the lowest). And short throws mean the ball comes out fast: Ewers gets rid of the football on average 2.51 seconds after the snap, fastest in the SEC.
Texas wants to get the ball out to its receivers quickly and let them break tackles in space. Five different Longhorn receivers have at least 150 yards after catch this year. Andrew Armstrong is the only Razorback in that category.
As you might imagine, pressuring Ewers is very difficult due to the speed at which the ball comes out. He’s faced pressure on just 28% of dropbacks this year and only been sacked 13 times. The good news is that if you can get pressure, you can get sacks. Ewers isn’t overly mobile and he’s attempted to scramble just seven times this season, tied with LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier for the fewest in the conference.
Texas generates explosive passes at a good rate, but almost all of them are due to broken tackles and downfield blocking, not air yards. Ewers has only attempted 22 passes this year that traveled at least 20 yards downfield. Among current SEC starters, only Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed, who has played only about half the season, has fewer.
If the Hogs can tackle in space and contain the screen game – a big if – then they can remove the explosiveness from the Texas passing game. That’s good news, because Texas might not be able to run much on this stout Razorback front.
The Longhorns have one of the weakest rushing attacks the Hogs have seen in conference play. Top running back Jaydon Blue is getting a cushion of just 1.3 yards before contact per rush this year, the fewest of any SEC starter the Hogs defense has seen this year. Blue and Quintrevion Wisner form a two-man committee that is probably more dangerous as a receiving threat (72 combined targets) than a rushing one.
What to Watch For in Arkansas vs Texas
As we’ve seen a few times this year, Arkansas’ best bet is a low-scoring game in which the Hogs can take away the Texas run game and prevent big plays. That’s still a tough strategy to execute, as the Longhorns will be content to try and win with short, safe passes.
Offensively, the Razorback receivers must win some one-on-one matchups, which is a very tall order. If Green can scramble and the run game can provide some help, the Hogs can probably move the ball a bit. To win, though, turnovers and special teams will probably need to break the Hogs’ way.
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