Ranking 8 Arkansas Bowl Projections By Desirability + Carmona’s Outlier

Sherrone Moore, Fernando Carmona Jr., Michigan football, Arkansas football, bowl projections
photo credit: Fox Sports / Craven Whitlow

It sometimes gets lost in the shuffle of NIL and the transfer portal, but many college football players — including those at Arkansas — are just like you and me. They love the sport they play and, when they’re not on the field or otherwise preparing for their own games, they keep up with what’s going on elsewhere.

Considering he grew up in Las Vegas, it shouldn’t be too surprising that Fernando Carmona Jr. is one of those players.

The Razorbacks’ starting left tackle was given an opportunity to air his opinions as a college football fan during a recent appearance on the Miss Understood Podcast, on which he was joined by former Playboy cover model and – apparently – SEC football commentator Sara Blake.

That includes which teams he thinks have stood out as College Football Playoff contenders through the first half of the season. Interestingly, Carmona immediately pointed out Miami (Fla.).

“They’re playing in a really weak conference in the ACC,” Carmona said. “I think their road to the playoffs and the championship is kind of already paved for them. They have a really good coach and really good players surrounding, obviously, a Heisman favorite in Cam Ward. I’m excited to see what they do and kind of bring back that hype to Miami.”

Pressed about who the Hurricanes would match up with in the postseason, Carmona said Arkansas and added “the Hogs are gonna pull it out.”

Sure, such an ACC-SEC matchup could technically happen in the Gasparilla, Birmingham or Gator Bowls.

That alone would be exciting for fans looking for revenge from the only three times Arkansas has played Miami. Led by former Razorback and eventual Dallas Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson, the Hurricanes destroyed them 51-7 in a top-10 battle in 1987. A dropped interception by Steve Atwater cost them a win the following year, when Miami won 18-16, and then the Hurricanes won another blowout, 31-3, to open the 1991 season.

However, if the Razorbacks are actually going to play Miami for just the fourth time in school history, it’d likely be in the College Football Playoff. The Hurricanes are ranked No. 6 in this week’s AP Poll and, for all the reasons Carmona laid out, are in the driver’s seat to earn one of the 12 bids.

Even with two losses, Arkansas is technically still alive for the College Football Playoff. In fact, ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Razorbacks a 2.5% chance of doing just that.

Of course, it would still be considered a successful season even if they fall short of Carmona’s lofty prediction. Most sports books put Arkansas’ win total at 4.5 before the season, so just reaching bowl eligibility would mean exceeding most preseason expectations.

Sitting at 4-2, that now seems likely. With an 88.8% chance of reaching six wins, according to the FPI, the Razorbacks are popping up in bowl projections all over the place. Here are a few of those, ranked from least to most exciting for Arkansas football fans…

8. Arkansas vs Georgia Tech in the Birmingham Bowl

Before the season, a good portion of the Arkansas football fan base would have signed up for an appearance in the Birmingham Bowl because they were just hoping to make any bowl game. However, with the Razorbacks off to a 4-2 start that includes a win over No. 4 Tennessee, playing in Birmingham two days after Christmas would be a letdown.

As for the opponent, Georgia Tech and Arkansas do have some history – albeit more than six decades ago. They first met in the 1955 Cotton Bowl, which the Yellow Jackets won 14-6 with a young assistant coach named Frank Broyles on staff. They played again five years later in the 1960 Gator Bowl, which was Broyles’ first bowl game leading the Arkansas football program, and the Razorbacks won 14-7.

7. Arkansas vs West Virginia in the Liberty Bowl

A short trip to Memphis to watch the Hogs in a bowl game wouldn’t be the worst thing for Arkansas football fans, but it wouldn’t exactly fire them up, either. It’s a game many have already attended, likely following the 2023 or 2015 seasons. Or perhaps they froze through the game in 2010. Or maybe they remember going in 1987. Or 1984. Or 1971.

West Virginia also isn’t going to generate much excitement. Sure, it’d be a first-time matchup, which is always cool, but it’s not really one that people have been champing at the bit for. There aren’t any obvious connections or storylines between the two programs.

6. Arkansas vs Texas Tech in the Texas Bowl

Going to Houston and playing in an NFL stadium would be a step in the right direction. It also doesn’t hurt that Texas is a major recruiting hotbed for the Razorbacks.

It’s always fun when Arkansas plays a former Southwest Conference foe, too, even if Texas Tech wasn’t at the top of the “rivalry” food chain. We got a taste of it about a decade ago when the two teams played a home-and-home, with Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams running wild in Lubbock in 2014 and Patrick Mahomes returning the favor in Fayetteville the following year.

5. Arkansas vs TCU in the Liberty Bowl

The fact that this would be another renewal of an old SWC rivalry and that it should have been the bowl matchup following the 2020 season before TCU backed out at the last second aren’t what make this potential game so desirable.

No, this game would be rather easily marketed – by fans and media, at least – as Arkansas vs Kendal Briles, the Razorbacks’ offensive coordinator from 2020-22. He was already a polarizing figure in Arkansas, despite his offenses being very successful, but any support he had likely went out the window when he announced his return for 2023, only to bail for TCU shortly thereafter.

It would also mean going up against former running backs coach Jimmy Smith, a member of Sam Pittman’s original staff who left for Fort Worth a couple days into spring ball earlier this year, and former running back Dominique Johnson, who has played sparingly with only 53 yards on 14 carries this season.

4. Arkansas vs TCU in the Texas Bowl

  • Action Network

This was the exact bowl matchup that was on the docket in 2020, as Arkansas was set to play TCU in the Texas Bowl. Whether you prefer Brett McMurphy’s projection over Saturday Down South likely boils down to which you value more – the proximity of Memphis or the luxury of playing in an NFL stadium. We like the latter.

3. Arkansas vs Utah in the Texas Bowl

  • ESPN

One of two projections by ESPN writers, both of whom have Arkansas squaring off with former Pac-12 members, it was Mark Schlabach who has the Razorbacks facing Utah in the Texas Bowl.

The Utes entered the season with legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations, but things haven’t gone as planned during a 4-2 start. Those losses came in their last two games and veteran quarterback Cam Rising is out for the year with a leg injury.

However, it’s still a solid program that has enjoyed a lot of recent success and it’d be a first-time matchup. The two teams do have a home-and-home series on the books for 2026 (Salt Lake City) and 2029 (Fayetteville), but such a bowl game could be a fun prelude to those future contests.

Plus, if you’re worried potential All-SEC running back Ja’Quinden Jackson might opt out of a bowl game, one possible motivating factor for him not to would be the opportunity to play his former team.

2. Arkansas vs USC in the Las Vegas Bowl

  • ESPN

The other ESPN projection was from Kyle Bonagura, who has the Razorbacks heading west to play USC in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Not only would this be Arkansas’ first appearance in that particular game since 2000, when it lost to UNLV, but it would be a rematch with one of the game’s premier programs. The Trojans swept their home-and-home series with the Razorbacks in 2005 and 2006 by a combined score of 120-31.

USC is a shell of what it was back then, though. Lincoln Riley’s squad beat LSU to open the season, but has lost three of its last four games to drop to 3-3 overall.

Plus, you just know a particular basketball coach would certainly make an appearance for such a game.

1. Arkansas vs Michigan in the Music City Bowl

  • 247Sports

It has been a down year for Michigan, with double-digit losses to Texas and Washington, but it is still the defending national champion. The Wolverines are also a premier program in college football and the only time Arkansas has played them, their quarterback was a guy named Tom Brady.

Throw in the fact that Nashville is a fun place to visit and that the Razorbacks haven’t played in the Music City Bowl since 2002, fans would almost certainly be fired up to watch them play Michigan. In fact, 247Sports’ Brad Crawford wrote that the matchup “would be a hot seller if organizers are lucky enough to get” it.

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