Mr. Armstrong Sees No. 1 Texas as Mostly Smoke & Mirrors So Far

Texas football, Arkansas football, Andrew Armstrong
photo credit: Texas Athletics / Craven Whitlow

With one win, the entire tenor of the 2024 Arkansas football season has changed.

Debates about whether or not the Razorbacks should fire head coach Sam Pittman have been replaced by discussion of their ceiling. Not only are they in position to make a bowl game, but could they match — or even exceed — the 8-4 record of three years ago?

Needless to say, Saturday’s takedown of then-No. 4 Tennessee has optimism flowing in Fayetteville and across the Natural State.

Entering its first open date of the season, Arkansas is 4-2 overall and 2-1 in the SEC, its best conference start since 2011.

Winning out and matching that team with a 10-2 record in the regular season seems unlikely, especially with four of the remaining six games being against teams in this week’s AP Poll. Stil, being the best Arkansas football team since 2011 is certainly in play.

Looming large is the renewal of their rivalry with Texas football, which is currently ranked No. 1 in the country, but the Razorbacks get that game — and three others — at home. The only remaining road trips are to Mississippi State and, to end the season, Missouri.

Before the season, Arkansas had just a 47.6% chance to reach bowl eligibility and an 8.0% chance to win at least eight regular-season games, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. With half of the season over, those percentages have increased to 93.6% and 29.8%, respectively.

The FPI’s most likely record for the Razorbacks is 7-5, but they do have a slight chance — 6.4% — of reaching nine regular-season wins for the first time since the aforementioned 2011 team that went on to beat Kansas State in the Cotton Bowl for its UA record-tying 11th win.

Here’s a look at the six remaining games for Arkansas football, grouped into three different categories…

Heavy Favorites

Oct. 26 — at Mississippi State
Preseason FPI: 48.6% chance for Arkansas to win
Current FPI: 71.8% chance for Arkansas to win (+23.2%)

This was always viewed as Arkansas’ most winnable SEC game and that is still the case. Instead of it being a toss-up, though, the Razorbacks are now firmly expected to beat the Bulldogs in Starkville later this month.

It’s been a rough year for Mississippi State. Since a season-opening win over FCS Eastern Kentucky, it has lost four straight – including an embarrassing 41-17 home loss to Toledo. The Bulldogs were also blown out by a mediocre Florida team and, making matters worse, starting quarterback Blake Shapen went down with a season-ending shoulder injury. First-year coach Jeff Lebby has since handed the reins to true freshman Michael Van Buren Jr., whose first start was at No. 1 Texas and second start will be at No. 5 Georgia.

Mississippi State record: 1-4 (0-2 SEC)

Nov. 23 — vs. Louisiana Tech
Preseason FPI: 87.6% chance for Arkansas to win
Current FPI: 95.8% chance for Arkansas to win (+8.2%)

Before heading north for their regular-season finale, the Razorbacks will host Louisiana Tech for their last non-conference game of the year. It’s a matchup they should win, but sandwiched between Texas and Missouri, it could easily become a trap game if they overlook it.

These particular Bulldogs are 1-3 with their lone win coming against FCS Nicholls, but they played North Carolina State tough (leading 17-6 at halftime before losing by 10) and have since lost to Tulsa in overtime and FIU by seven. Who knows who’ll be under center for them by Nov. 23 – three different quarterbacks have played extensively – but they will have one particularly motivated player: leading tackler Zach Zimos began his career in Fayetteville.

Louisiana Tech record: 1-3 (0-1 CUSA)

Toss-Up Games for Arkansas Football

Oct. 19 — vs. No. 13 LSU
Preseason FPI: 34.7% chance for Arkansas to win
Current FPI: 49.5% chance for Arkansas to win (+14.8%)

Something working in Arkansas’ favor this game is the fact that LSU has to play Ole Miss this weekend while the Razorbacks are off. They’ll get an extra week to heal up and prepare for the Tigers, who they almost always play tough. Also, Arkansas has won three straight games coming off open dates – beating Mississippi State (2021), Auburn (2022) and Florida (2023), the latter two of those on the road.

LSU has won four straight since its season-opening loss to USC, helping it climb back into the top-15. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has been fantastic in his first year leading the offense after biding his time as the backup the last three years. He leads the SEC in passing touchdowns (15) and ranks second in passing yards (1,652), but the Tigers haven’t been great on the other side of the ball. They’re 14th out of 16 teams in total defense and will be without star linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. the rest of the year because of a torn ACL.

LSU record: 4-1 (1-0 SEC)

Nov. 30 — at No. 21 Missouri
Preseason FPI: 20.0% chance for Arkansas to win
Current FPI: 43.6% chance for Arkansas to win (+23.6%)

Coming off an 11-2 season capped by a win over Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl, Missouri entered this year with legitimate College Football Playoff expectations. Those hopes are still alive, but – as the folks at SEC Shorts hilariously point out – on life support. After needing double overtime to beat Vanderbilt and despite getting an extra week to prepare, the Tigers were obliterated 41-10 at Texas A&M last weekend. That cost them 12 spots in the AP Poll.

Of course, none of that matters when Arkansas and Missouri meet on the gridiron. Fans refuse to accept its status as a rivalry game, but the Tigers have owned the Razorbacks since joining the SEC. Still, Arkansas’ chances of reversing that trend have more than doubled since the preseason, according to the FPI.

Missouri record: 4-1 (1-1 SEC)

Still Heavy Underdogs

Nov. 2 — vs. No. 9 Ole Miss
Preseason FPI: 35.4% chance for Arkansas to win
Current FPI: 21.5% chance for Arkansas to win (-13.9%)

Another team viewed as a serious College Football Playoff contender, Ole Miss breezed through its first four games before getting punched in the mouth by Kentucky at home in its first real challenge. However, the Rebels bounced back with a rather commanding 27-3 win at South Carolina (the same team that crushed Kentucky in Lexington – because, well, college football).

Quarterback Jaxson Dart has put up big-time numbers, while wide receiver Tre Harris is the only receiver in the SEC with more catches and yards than Andrew Armstrong, and it’s not particularly close. Defensively, the Rebels are led by linebacker Chris “Pooh” Paul Jr. Think he’ll be motivated in his return to Fayetteville?

Expect another wild one in arguably the most underrated rivalry in all of college football.

Ole Miss record: 5-1 (1-1 SEC)

Nov. 16 — vs. No. 1 Texas
Preseason FPI: 16.4% chance for Arkansas to win
Current FPI: 15.5% chance for Arkansas to win (-0.9%)

The biggest and most difficult game remaining on the Arkansas football schedule is the Nov. 16 showdown with Texas football. Fresh off a College Football Playoff appearance and in their first season in the SEC, the Longhorns are 5-0 with a road win over defending national champion Michigan.

There’s some question about whether the Longhorns should go back to quarterback Quinn Ewers when he gets healthy or stick with Arch Manning, but that answer should become clear over the next two weeks when Texas takes on No. 18 Oklahoma and No. 5 Georgia. That’s certainly a step up from non-conference play, even when including the Wolverines. Texas’ SEC opener against Mississippi State didn’t exactly represent a true test of mettle. 

That soft strength of schedule – which ESPN ranks 101st in the FBS – is why UA wide receiver Andrew Armstrong’s father, Arthur, isn’t scared of the Longhorns despite their No. 1 ranking.

“Texas has yet to play anybody in the SEC, other than Mississippi State,” Armstrong told Inside Arkansas. “No knock on them, but we’re talking about Mississippi State. Texas will have two losses when they show up in Fayetteville.” (For what’s worth, Armstrong sees Arkansas winning out in the regular season.)

A twice-dinged Texas football team coming into Fayetteville wouldn’t put too much of a damper on the atmosphere, though. If Arkansas can pull off an upset or two between now and then and enter the game ranked, Hunter Yurachek may want to get that $500,000 check ready – just in case.

Texas record: 5-0 (1-0)

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Hear the full interview with Andrew Armstrong’s proud parents:

YouTube video

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More coverage of Arkansas football from BoAS… 

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