An uneasy feeling looms over the Arkansas football program despite a 35-14 win over Louisiana Tech that secured bowl eligibility. But that narrative could flip fast with a win over Missouri in the regular-season finale.
The Battle Line Rivalry has hardly been a rivalry, given its lopsided nature. Missouri has won 10 of 12 meetings with the Hogs since joining the SEC. The good news for Arkansas is that, not counting 2020, they are 2-2 against Missouri when they enter the game with at least three SEC wins, and that’s the situation this year. Both wins were lopsided (28-3 in 2015, 34-17 in 2021) and both losses were very close (28-24 in 2016, 29-27 in 2022).
The Hogs may have some extra fans on Saturday, as Missouri football coach Eli Drinkwitz is back in the news for his unusually brazen trash talk. The Arkansas native has mocked Sam Pittman before and gone after plenty of other coaches, including former Florida coach Dan Mullen and Tennessee coach Josh Heupel. On Saturday, he took it to another level, taunting Mississippi State’s defense to their faces in the closing seconds of Mizzou’s 39-20 win.
Fans of other schools who think that behavior is classless may be rooting for the Hogs to stick it to Drinkwitz’s Tigers.
Missouri’s On-Schedule Offense
Drinkwitz has an impressive offensive pedigree with the two main influences of his scheme being Gus Malzahn and Bryan Harsin. He coached with Malzahn at Springdale High in 2004 and then was an assistant at Auburn (2010-11) and Arkansas State (2012). The pair parted ways after that, and Drink coordinated Harsin’s lone Red Wolf offense in 2013 before following him to Boise State, where he was a coordinator from 2014-15.
From there, he set out on his own, working as NC State’s offensive coordinator from 2016-18 before spending one year as Appalachian State’s head coach. What Drinkwitz does on offense is mostly his own, though it’s not radically different from what Harsin unsuccessfully ran at Auburn.
The Missouri offense prizes efficiency above all else. It wants to never go backward and never find itself in a third-and-long. To accomplish this, the Tigers don’t mind hitting very few explosive plays. You could say this raises the “floor” of the offense while lowering its “ceiling.” Their offense got rocked by the two best defenses it faced (zero points against Alabama, 10 points against Texas A&M), but Mizzou has scored at least 27 points in every other game that quarterback Brady Cook has started this year.
Missouri’s offense starts with the Outside Zone. No one in the country runs this play as often as Missouri. According to data from SEC Stat Cat, the Tigers have run their favorite play on 21% of their offensive snaps this season, the most that any single SEC team has repped any single concept. Outside Zone works best when the offensive linemen have good technique and the ability to move laterally. Missouri’s offensive line, led by right tackle Armand Membou, is very well-suited for what the Tigers are doing:
Missouri wants its Outside Zone runs to consistently gain 4-6 yards to keep the offense on schedule. They don’t get many big runs with this look, but it’s also very difficult to stop it for a loss.
The good news for Arkansas is that the top run defenses on Missouri’s schedule have limited the Tiger run game. Top running back Nate Noel is averaging 2.7 yards before contact per rush this season. For comparison, Ja’Quinden Jackson is getting a cushion of just 1.8 yards before contact per rush this year for the Hogs. But Noel got cushions of just 0.8 against Texas A&M and 0.3 against Oklahoma. He didn’t play against Alabama, so those are the two best defenses he’s seen.
If the line doesn’t give a big cushion, Noel won’t be much help. He’s broken just 18 tackles this season; Jackson has 40 on slightly fewer rush attempts. And his 2.7 yards after contact per rush is much worse than Jackson’s 3.6 average. In fact, Noel hasn’t eclipsed 3.0 YAC per rush since the Vanderbilt game in September, and he had a season-low 1.8 against Mississippi State’s horrendous rush defense on Saturday.
A major part of this game will come down to Arkansas’ ability to prevent Missouri’s standout back from getting the cushion he needs. Some folks may prefer to wait a bit after Thanksgiving before gearing up for Christmas, but in this case it’s imperative that Hog defenders rush into Noel as fast as possible two days after Turkey Day.
Because if Mizzou can establish the run, the Hogs may find themselves in a world of hurt.
The story of Mizzou’s pass game this season has been the health of Brady Cook. The senior three-year starter was excellent in 2023, but has struggled to stay healthy in 2024. The Oklahoma game was the only one he’s missed entirely, but he was limited against Auburn and Alabama. Backup Drew Pyne hasn’t been good in his place, nearly costing the Tigers against Auburn and Oklahoma, but they managed to win both.
When Cook is healthy, as he should be on Saturday, the Mizzou offense is more dangerous, because it’s actually capable of generating some explosive throws.
Cook’s accuracy has been iffy at times, but he’s capable of making throws both deep and short. He’s also difficult to pressure, with just 27% of his dropbacks resulting in a pressure this year.
Cook’s top target is Luther Burden III. The former five-star recruit has been as-advertised during his time in Columbia. The Tigers will throw to him down the field, where he can make some great catches:
If the downfield stuff is taken away, they will force-feed him screens and quick throws to let him work after the catch, where he’s very tough to bring down. For the year, he’s caught 60 of 78 targets for 665 yards and six touchdowns with only two drops. He averages more than six yards after the catch per reception.
How will the Hogs defend Burden? He generally lines up in the slot, which makes him Doneiko Slaughter’s responsibility. That’s a scary thought, as Pro Football Focus has charged Slaughter with allowing a team-high 487 receiving yards this year. On average, Slaughter allows a target on every 5.4 coverage snaps and a reception on every 8.0 coverage snaps, both also the worst on the team.
To be fair to Slaughter, he’s coming off his best game of the season, per PFF. He held Louisiana Tech’s excellent slot receiver Tru Edwards to just two catches for eight yards. His second-best game was the week before that against Texas, where he allowed only one reception all game. Does he have one more big game in him?
Mizzou’s Defense Will Bend, But Can Arkansas Break It?
While Mizzou’s offense had a rough October, the defense has been pretty consistent. When the Tigers have lost, it’s been because they couldn’t stop the pass. Texas A&M’s Conner Weigman completed 18 of 22 passes for 276 yards in a 41-10 romp, and then South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers threw for 353 yards and five touchdowns in a 34-30 thriller a couple weeks ago.
In both of those losses, the opponent came out throwing. Sellers recorded passes of 30, 26, 14, 29 and 38 on early downs in the first half alone, while Weigman was similar, with five completions of at least 15 yards coming on first or second down.
Opponents will want to throw because Mizzou’s run defense is solid. The Tigers limit most opponent rushing attempts to a gain of between 1 and 4 yards. However, they’ve been gashed for huge runs way too often, ranking 71st out of 134 FBS teams in percentage of opponent rushes to gain 10 or more yards.
This is a potential opening for the Razorbacks, who still lead the nation in explosive run rate. Among SEC running backs with at least 50 carries this year, Rashod Dubinion (24%) ranks second and Ja’Quinden Jackson (18%) is fifth in percentage of runs that are explosive. That duo helped put Louisiana Tech away last week with five explosive runs on their final drive: four straight by Dubinion before then the finisher by Jackson.
The big question is whether or not offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino can afford to stick with the run enough to create these explosives. Against LSU, another defense that’s had issues with explosive runs, the Razorbacks saw too many run plays shut down early on and ended up abandoning the run without ever gashing the vulnerable Tiger defense. Mizzou will want to do the same thing to keep the strongest part of Arkansas’ offense from working.
The other consistent trend in those two bad games was a lack of sacks. The Tigers managed to pressure Sellers 15 times, but they could only sack him once. And they pressured Weigman eight times with only one sack, which allowed him to attack down the field.
For the year, Mizzou has been mediocre at getting pressure. Pro Football Focus gives them a team pass rush grade of 76, which ranks 11th in the 16-team SEC. Arkansas had an unfortunate draw this year, playing the pass rushes ranked 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 8th and 9th, so the Tigers at 11th and Mississippi State at 16th are the only ones the Hogs have seen firmly in the bottom half.
Like Arkansas, Mizzou has solid safeties, but has had some issues at cornerback. Starters Dreyden Norwood – a Fort Smith Northside product – and Nicholas DeLoach have each been charged with more than 200 passing yards allowed: Norwood struggled in September and October, but it was DeLoach who allowed five catches for 121 yards in the South Carolina loss.
What to Watch For in Arkansas vs Missouri
Arkansas’ passing attack is going to have to play well. The Razorbacks struggled to protect Taylen Green against strong pass rushes like Texas A&M and Ole Miss, and Green has had some baffling stretches of bad football even without pressure, with the first quarter of the Louisiana Tech game being the latest example.
If Green has time to throw and is sharp, the Hogs are in good shape to attack Missouri’s vulnerable secondary while being balanced enough to generate some of the explosive runs that make the Petrino offense dangerous. If he’s having to flee the rush or can’t find open receivers, the Razorbacks will fall behind the chains fast, something you don’t want to do against a good third-down defense.
Defensively, it’s more complicated. On paper, the Hogs should be able to contain the Missouri run game, but the secondary is going to have to come up big against a healthy Brady Cook. Arkansas’ best bet would be to limit big passes and force Cook to be precise on shorter throws.
This seems like the kind of game that could be close enough for turnovers and special teams to decide things. The Razorbacks had three turnovers and were awful on special teams against Louisiana Tech, and those departments have not been kind to them in big games this year. Turning that around for this game could be enough to deliver a big win for the Arkansas football program.
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