After a lengthy offseason, Arkansas football is finally here.
The Razorbacks will open the 2024 season Thursday night with a game against UAPB at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock.
Excitement has been building for several months as Sam Pittman enters a pivotal season with a new offensive coordinator you might recognize – Bobby Petrino.
To gauge just how excited fans are for this season, despite low expectations, Best of Arkansas Sports created a confidence poll. We asked fans to give their confidence level for each game, on a scale from 0-10 with 0 meaning it was a definite loss, 5 meaning it was a true 50/50 toss-up and 10 meaning it was a definite win.
We were blown away by the responses, as we received 1,006 total votes in about 27 hours.
To see how fans’ expectations differed from local media, we also sent the exact same poll to various reporters across multiple mediums – newspaper, website, television and radio – who cover the Razorbacks. We got back 21 responses, including from myself, Andrew Hutchinson.
Once the voting closed, we averaged the responses and then divided them by 10 to get a percentage that we could then compare to ESPN’s Football Power Index projections.
Without further ado, here are the results…
Arkansas’ Non-Conference Slate
Aug. 29 — Arkansas vs UAPB (Little Rock)
ESPN FPI: 99.0%
Fan Confidence: 95.4% (9.54)
Media Confidence: 100% (10.0)
This is as close to a guaranteed win as there is in college football. You can call that a jinx, but there’s a reason the Razorbacks are a 48.5-point favorite. The gap between the SEC and the SWAC is larger than any other two conferences in the FBS and FCS. This isn’t The Citadel, which was ranked No. 1 in what was then called DI-AA in 1992, or even a Bobby Petrino-led Missouri State team.
The media — and 76.4% of the fans — were right in giving this a 10 on the confidence meter. If this game is even close, the Razorbacks are in for a long year. Another 13.1% of fans gave this a game 9 and 6.3% gave it an 8. Of course, there were a handful of turds (eight, to be exact) who clearly didn’t take the project seriously and gave Arkansas no chance of winning.
Hutch’s Pick: W, 63-3
If you’re an Arkansas fan, your hope should be that the offense doesn’t fail to score and the defense doesn’t allow anything while the starters are in the game. Something like a 42-0 halftime score would be ideal, with the second-team offense tacking on a few touchdowns and UAPB eventually mustering a field goal.
Sept. 7 — Arkansas vs Oklahoma State (Stillwater, Okla.)
ESPN FPI: 36.8%
Fan Confidence: 41.8% (4.18)
Media Confidence: 39.5% (3.95)
Even though it’s in Week 2, this might be the most important game of the Arkansas football season — and quite possibly the entire Sam Pittman tenure. If the Razorbacks can go on the road and pull off an upset, the path to six wins and a bowl game suddenly becomes much easier. With a loss, though, they’d have to find a way to win three SEC games.
Perhaps not surprisingly, fans gave Arkansas a better chance to beat the Cowboys than both the local media and ESPN’s FPI. A whopping 42.7% voted for a 5 or better in the confidence poll, meaning they felt the Razorbacks had at least a 50/50 shot at winning in Stillwater. That’s a stark contrast to the only four, out of 21, media members who did the same — just 19.0%.
Hutch’s Pick: L, 31-27
I believe this will be a close game and could see it going either way, but I’m going to pick Oklahoma State. Until Sam Pittman proves he can consistently win those kinds of games, I’ll lean toward the opponent more times than not. Also, Ollie Gordon II will be a tremendous test for Arkansas’ run defense, which I think will slow him down some, but not enough.
Sept. 14 — Arkansas vs UAB (Fayetteville)
ESPN FPI: 81.6%
Fan Confidence: 84.8% (8.48)
Media Confidence: 81.9% (8.19)
The Razorbacks play only one of their first five games in Fayetteville and that’s their non-conference matchup with UAB. It’ll be a homecoming of sorts for Alex Mortenson, a former Arkansas quarterback who is now the Blazers’ offensive coordinator. They went 4-8 last year, which was their first being led by former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer.
It wouldn’t be surprising if UAB is better this season, but the Razorbacks should still be a heavy favorite. Interestingly, the media’s average confidence rating is almost identical to the FPI’s projection. The fans are even more confident, which is saying something considering the aforementioned handful of turds who gave Arkansas no chance of winning.
Hutch’s Pick: W, 42-13
Even though I have the Razorbacks losing to Oklahoma State, the fact that it was a competitive game against a top-25 opponent could give them some confidence and create some excitement amongst fans for the first game in Fayetteville. They’ll ride that to an easy win.
Nov. 23 — Arkansas vs Louisiana Tech (Fayetteville)
ESPN FPI: 87.6%
Fan Confidence: 82.6% (8.26)
Media Confidence: 89.0% (8.90)
To build some suspense with the SEC schedule, we’ll skip ahead to the final non-conference game to group it with the first three to open the season. Louisiana Tech is one of three games following Arkansas’ second open date, sandwiched between matchups with two teams that have College Football Playoff aspirations (Texas and Missouri).
All 21 media members had a confidence of at least 8 for this game, while 74.4% of the fans have a similar confidence. The other quarter of the fan base probably has PTSD from the Chad Morris era, when losing to these kinds of teams was routine. Sam Pittman did lose to Liberty a couple of years ago, but that was a top-25 team. Louisiana Tech almost certainly will not be, as it has put together three straight 3-9 seasons.
Hutch’s Pick: W, 45-10
Outside of the trip to Stillwater, Arkansas really was blessed with a pretty easy non-conference slate. That includes the late-season matchup with Louisiana Tech. It’ll mark the return of Zach Zimos, a former four-star signee in the heralded 2019 class. There will be a revenge factor, but it’s hard for a linebacker to completely take over in today’s game, so the Hogs roll again.
Arkansas’ SEC Slate
Sept. 21 — Arkansas vs Auburn (Auburn, Ala.)
ESPN FPI: 30.4%
Fan Confidence: 42.5% (4.25)
Media Confidence: 38.6% (3.86)
The Razorbacks open their conference slate on the road at Auburn, where weird things typically happen. Remember 2020? That game is still considered by many to be an Arkansas win, even though it went down as a loss in the official record book.
Auburn didn’t have a great team last year, but its sixth and final win was a 38-point massacre in Fayetteville. Now in his second year at the helm, Hugh Freeze should have an even better team — and the game is on the Plains. Neither fans nor the local media are particularly confident, but they do have more faith than the FPI.
Hutch’s Pick: L, 28-17
Hugh Freeze seems to have Sam Pittman’s number, much like Bret Bielema had Freeze’s number. Even though Liberty was ranked in 2022, that was a game Arkansas should have won. Last year, the Razorbacks had just beaten Florida on the road, but barely showed up to their matchup with the Tigers in Fayetteville. I don’t have much confidence they’ll flip the script in Auburn.
Sept. 28 — Arkansas vs Texas A&M (Arlington, Texas)
ESPN FPI: 29.2%
Fan Confidence: 41.2% (4.12)
Media Confidence: 43.8% (4.38)
Weird things typically happen in AT&T Stadium, too, and this is the last year Arkansas and Texas A&M will play each other at the home of the Dallas Cowboys. Unfortunately for the Razorbacks, that usually involves finding creative ways to lose.
That said, the games are also — more times than not — very competitive and decided by one score or less. It’s been a very close lopsided series, if that oxymoron makes sense. That probably explains why, when compared to the FPI, Arkansas fans and media are much more confident in the Razorbacks’ chances.
Hutch’s Pick: L, 34-31 (OT)
It’s been a while since Arkansas and Texas A&M have played an overtime game and, quite frankly, I can’t think of a better way for the Southwest Classic to go out. I see the game being tied 28-28 at the end of regulation, with some late-game drama, and the Razorbacks giving up a touchdown after kicking a field goal of their own to open the overtime period.
Oct. 5 — Arkansas vs Tennessee (Fayetteville)
ESPN FPI: 25.5%
Fan Confidence: 35.2% (3.52)
Media Confidence: 40.5% (4.05)
The second of three straight preseason top-25 opponents for Arkansas, Tennessee will be coming to Fayetteville fresh off an open date.
Interestingly, this is the game the media differs the most from the fans in favor of the Razorbacks. Their confidence is 5.3 percentage points higher than fans — and 15 percentage points higher than the FPI.
Hutch’s Pick: L, 28-21
To be honest, I’m not really sure why the media is so much more confident than the computers and fans – and I’m guilty of voting a 4 for this game, too. Perhaps it’s just the fact that they’re back in Fayetteville finally after playing only one of their first five games there. Regardless, I see it being competitive, but another close loss.
Oct. 19 — Arkansas vs LSU (Fayetteville)
ESPN FPI: 34.7%
Fan Confidence: 37.8% (3.78)
Media Confidence: 40.5% (4.05)
Last year’s game in Baton Rouge was a thrilling game that saw Arkansas tie it up with about 5 minutes left, only for LSU to bleed the remaining clock before kicking a game-winning field goal.
How close the game was last year, plus this year’s matchup being in Fayetteville and off of an open date, has to be why the media and fans are more confident than the computers. Interestingly, no media member voted lower than a 2, while 14.5% of fans – not an insignificant number – voted a 0 or 1 in the confidence poll.
Hutch’s Pick: L, 24-22
This game comes after an open date and Sam Pittman’s teams have traditionally fared well in those situations. Just look at last year’s trip to Florida. Even though LSU should be really good this year, I think Arkansas is going to be in this one until the end – only to lose in the closing seconds again, either on a field goal by the Tigers or a missed field goal by the Razorbacks (Cam Little is gone, after all).
Also, if you’re thinking we’ll have “interim coach Bobby Petrino” by this point of the season, don’t hold your breath. Arkansas’ record must dip three games below .500 before Pittman’s buyout drops from 75% to 50% of his remaining contract. The only way that could happen before this open date would be if the Razorbacks lose to UAPB or UAB.
Oct. 26 — Arkansas vs Mississippi State (Starkville, Miss.)
ESPN FPI: 48.6%
Fan Confidence: 61.7% (6.17)
Media Confidence: 64.3% (6.43)
One of the ugliest Arkansas football games in recent memory was last season’s 7-3 loss to Mississippi State. It wasn’t a great defensive battle like the famous Alabama-LSU game in 2011 that ended with a 9-6 score. Rather, it was two terrible offenses squaring off, and it ultimately proved to be the final straw that resulted in Dan Enos’ midseason firing.
Not surprisingly, expectations for both programs are pretty low in 2024. The Bulldogs are actually one of only two teams picked behind the Razorbacks in the preseason SEC poll, with the other being Vanderbilt. The FPI has this game as almost a true toss-up, while media and fans are more confident that Arkansas has a chance to go on the road and win – likely because they believe a Bobby Petrino offense should muster more than 3 points.
Hutch’s Pick: W, 38-17
Not only should a Petrino offense muster more than 3 points, but I think it’ll find the end zone several times against Mississippi State and give the Razorbacks a rare comfortable SEC win.
Nov. 2 — Arkansas vs Ole Miss (Fayetteville)
ESPN FPI: 35.4%
Fan Confidence: 37.2% (3.72)
Media Confidence: 31.9% (3.19)
This might be one of the most underrated rivalries in college football – not because of the hatred between the two schools, but rather because of the craziness of the series. Six of the last nine matchups have been decided by a touchdown or less, including last year, and some wild stuff has happened. There was the seven overtime game in 2001, the Henry Heave in 2015 and the largest comeback in UA history in 2017, and that doesn’t even include the Power River Play in 1954.
Despite all of that history, most of which has resulted in Arkansas wins, there isn’t a whole lot of confidence going into this year’s matchup. The media is actually less confident in the Razorbacks’ chances than the FPI, with fans only slightly more confident. That makes sense because this appears to be one of Ole Miss’ best teams ever.
Hutch’s Pick: L, 45-42
The last two Arkansas-Ole Miss matchups have been relatively tame, so I think we’re due for another wild one. Lane Kiffin vs. Bobby Petrino should produce an entertaining shootout, but the Rebels have national championship aspirations, so I have them pulling it out in the end.
If you’re keeping track at home, this is the fifth game I’ve predicted Arkansas to lose by seven points or less. That’s not an accident. I made the mistake during the Bielema tenure of thinking, “If they can just figure out how to finish off games they lead in the fourth quarter…” and that never happened. For Pittman, his Achilles heel appears to be close games.
Nov. 16 — Arkansas vs Texas (Fayetteville)
ESPN FPI: 16.4%
Fan Confidence: 32.7% (3.27)
Media Confidence: 28.6% (2.86)
The “Texas is back” jokes died last year, as the Longhorns really were back and reached the four-team College Football Playoff. They seem to be primed for another big year in 2024, too.
Even with Arkansas coming off another open date, that’s why this is the toughest game on the schedule, according to the FPI, fans and media. Fans are most confident, as many believe the Razorbacks always have a chance to beat Texas, but it’s still less than a 1-in-3 chance.
Hutch’s Pick: W, 27-24
I personally voted a 2 for this game in the confidence poll, so I don’t think the Razorbacks have a great chance to pull off the upset, but I’m picking it to happen as my bold prediction for 2024. If my other predictions hold true, Arkansas will be just 3-6 at this point. That’s the magic number for Pittman’s buyout to drop to 50%.
I could see the UA announcing he won’t be back during the open date – either because he’s been dismissed or decided to retire – and locking in that lower buyout, but allowing him to finish the season, similar to Ed Orgeron at LSU. If that happens, I think Arkansas will suddenly have an emotional edge for the Texas game, which is already a big rivalry. That could just mean another close loss, but that wouldn’t be a very bold prediction, would it?
Nov. 30 — Arkansas vs Missouri (Columbia, Mo.)
ESPN FPI: 20.0%
Fan Confidence: 38.0% (3.80)
Media Confidence: 31.0% (3.10)
Since joining the SEC and becoming a “rival” of Arkansas, Missouri has owned the series. The Tigers have won eight of the 10 matchups, including last year’s 48-14 beatdown.
That’s a fact some Arkansas football fans have a hard time grappling with, hence their significantly higher confidence than both the FPI and media. In fact, the 7 percentage point difference between the fans and media is the largest of the 12 games.
Hutch’s Pick: L, 35-14
There is a scenario in which I could see the Razorbacks winning this game. That would be if they came up short in a close game against Texas and maintained that emotional edge, sending out Pittman with a win. However, I think it’s far more likely that Arkansas loses by three touchdowns. Either way, I have the Razorbacks going 5-7 with a coaching search in the offseason.
Assessing the Arkansas Football Projections
This was a fun project and yielded some surprising results.
What wasn’t particularly shocking is the fact that both the media and fans are more confident in the Razorbacks than ESPN’s Football Power Index heading into the 2024 season.
Calculating the predicted win total using game-by-game percentages is relatively easy, as you just convert the percentages to decimals and then add them up. Here’s what you get with the FPI and the results of our confidence poll:
- ESPN FPI: 5.45 wins
- Fans: 6.31 wins
- Media: 6.30 wins
That’s right: After more than 1,000 votes by fans, the fanbase’s projected win total is almost identical to the combined votes of 21 media members.
However, that can partially be explained by those “turds” who didn’t take the project seriously. Take out their votes and the fan vote increases to 6.36 projected wins, so it’s still not a significant difference.
What should be noted is that the media is much more confident in Arkansas’ chances against UAPB and Louisiana Tech. Those two games make up the difference in the media’s and fans’ expectations in SEC play.
Excluding the “turd” votes, fans have Arkansas with 3.29 projected SEC wins. The media, meanwhile, has the Razorbacks with 3.19 projected SEC wins.
Side-by-Side Comparison
| Game | ESPN FPI | Fans | Media |
|---|---|---|---|
| UAPB | 99.0% | 95.4% | 100% |
| Oklahoma State | 36.8% | 41.8% | 39.5% |
| UAB | 81.6% | 84.8% | 81.9% |
| Auburn | 30.4% | 42.5% | 38.6% |
| Texas A&M | 29.2% | 41.2% | 43.8% |
| Tennessee | 25.5% | 35.2% | 40.5% |
| LSU | 34.7% | 37.8% | 40.5% |
| Mississippi State | 48.6% | 61.7% | 64.3% |
| Ole Miss | 35.4% | 37.2% | 31.9% |
| Texas | 16.4% | 32.7% | 28.6% |
| Louisiana Tech | 87.6% | 82.6% | 89.0% |
| Missouri | 20.0% | 38.0% | 31.0% |
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The latest Hoggin’ the Mic podcast episode is a preview of the 2024 Arkansas football season:
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More coverage of Arkansas football from BoAS…
