John Calipari suffered his first loss at Arkansas over the weekend, losing to No. 8 Baylor in Dallas. While there’s no shame in losing a neutral-site game to a top-10 team – especially by single digits – there were still plenty of concerns and question marks left on the court for the Hogs.
For the second straight game, the Razorbacks struggled as a unit to shoot the ball from 3-point range, hitting only 5 of 20 (25%) long-range attempts. They’re now 9 of 39 (23.1%) officially on the season, not counting their 10-of-43 (23.3%) performance in two exhibition games.
The Bears ran an aggressive zone defense that gave the Hogs fits early and often, in large part due to their lengthy wings and strength on the inside, but also because Arkansas didn’t seem to have many sets or motions ready to roll out against a zone defense.
Of course, it’s worth remembering that this is the second game of the regular season – against one of the better teams Arkansas will play this year nonetheless – so it’s likely that the Hogs will be able to make some adjustments and preparations for these types of defenses and situations moving forward.
Their next chance to display any potential adjustments comes against what should be an easier matchup to manage, at least on paper. Of course, Troy — which visits Bud Walton Arena on Wednesday — won 20 games last year and is picked to finish third in the Sun Belt this season. It is also currently No. 117 on KenPom.
Tipoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. CT and the game will be streamed on SEC Network-Plus and the ESPN App.
What to Expect from Troy Basketball
The Trojans are a well-balanced team in terms of scoring and stat distribution. Four different players average between 11.0 and 12.5 points per game. They also have nine players averaging at least 10.5 minutes per game, with only one of them being a freshman (Cooper Campell).
“Tough game, tough team,” Arkansas basketball assistant Kenny Payne said Tuesday. “They shoot the ball well, they’re physical, they create a situation defensively where they create turnovers. They have 11 players, I think, back from last year’s team. They have four guys in double-figures. They are a very good basketball team that we know we have to play well to beat them.”
Jackson Fields (6-foot-8) paces the team in scoring so far this season with 12.5 points and 7.0 rebounds per game while shooting 64% from the field. After Norchad Omier of Baylor got whatever he wanted against the Hogs in the paint, this matchup with the Razorback bigs will be an interesting one to watch.
The Trojans’ other starting big man, Thomas Dowd, is also 6-foot-8 and is listed at 225 lbs – 15 lbs heavier than Fields – but he’s attempting 6.0 three-pointers per game and averages only 5.5 rebounds to go along with his 11.5 points per game. That makes Fields the more likely matchup for the Hogs’ true centers, while players like Trevon Brazile and Adou Thiero will likely be matched up with Dowd.
Tayton Conerway (6-foot-3) and Myles Rigsby (6-foot-5) – Troy’s two preseason all-conference picks – are the other two leading scorers at 11.5 and 11.0 points per game, respectively. Conerway also paces the team in assists with 6.0 per game, though he shoots only 29% from long range on the season. He’s likely to draw the matchup of DJ Wagner, who has done a good job of applying full court pressure to opposing guards so far this season.
Marcus Rigsby (6-foot-5) rounds out the starting five for the Trojans, and though he’s averaging only 7.0 points per game so far, he’s been the team’s best 3-point shooter by far, making 4 of 7 attempts in their two games.
Other notable players in Troy’s rotation:
- Victor Valdes: 6-foot-7, F | 22.0 MPG, 5.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.5 APG
- Theo Seng: 6-foot-9, F | 18.5 MPG, 7.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.5 APG, 33% 3P
- Randarius Jones: 6-foot-7, C | 14.0 MPG, 6.5 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 63% FG
- Cooper Campbell: 6-foot-2, G | 10.5 MPG, 2.5 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 67% FG
What to Expect from Arkansas Basketball
The Hogs played a respectable game all around against Baylor, but shooting struggles and interior defense played the biggest roles in their first defeat of the season.
As a team, Arkansas shot only 41% from the field and 25% from long range on its way to 67 points. The key factor in those ugly percentages was the Razorbacks’ lack of good looks against the Bears’ zone and then their inability to finish in the paint. Their first win included a team 3-point percentage of only 21%, but over 83% from inside the arc. Against Baylor, the 3-point shooting actually improved slightly, but the Hogs made only 57% of their 2-point attempts.
Arkansas did a lot of things well as a team, including hitting 14 of their 17 (82%) free throws, turning the ball over only 11 times, and assisting on over 50% of their field goals.
“This [game] showed me some good stuff,” Calipari said. “We’ve got a lot of work to do. I still think my team’s pretty good. Gotta make a shot or two. You don’t have to make them all. You just can’t miss them all.”
Transfer forward Adou Thiero showed off his potential with an impressive stat-stuffing performance. He tallied 24 points on 67% shooting from the field and 50% from long range to go along with 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks and 1 steal with only 2 turnovers in his 31 minutes.
He also did all of this while being tasked with defending one of the best forwards in the country in Norchad Omier.
“He’s in attack mode now,” Calipari said postgame. “Instead of messing with the ball, he’s in attack mode. Now he can get to where he needs to go… He also defended a very physical guy, so he was doing a little bit of everything.”
With the shooting struggles from Razorback guards and defensive miscommunications from big men, Thiero’s ability to stay consistent as the Hogs work out their flaws against teams like Troy will be huge for the continuity of the group.
Boogie Fland and Johnell Davis combined to shoot only 32% from the field. They hit 30% of their 3-pointers, which isn’t great, but it’s not a percentage that automatically tanks the entire team.
Troy’s defense is more than capable of giving the Hogs trouble, so these two might have their hands full again as they try to find their touch offensively. The Bud Walton Arena crowd could certainly help with this, though.
Arguably the biggest factor in Arkansas’ recent loss was the big men on both sides of the ball. Jonas Aidoo is visibly still hampered by a lower body injury, to the point Calipari expressed some regret in playing him.
Zvonimir Ivisic can provide a dangerous mismatch offensively and good rim protection, but his slow lateral quickness and relatively thinner frame was on full display as Baylor continuously got open opportunities in the paint and prevented Big Z from finding his rhythm offensively.
“He’s learning,” Payne said. “He’s learning the responsibility of being in shape, he’s learning the responsibility of bringing a physicality to this and the responsibility of you have to be the last line of defense and create rim protection for this team to be successful. We need him, we love him. He has gotten better, but we got a long way to go.”
Trevon Brazile did fine in his minutes at center, but the Hogs will quickly become desperate for Aidoo’s full return to health if Big Z continues to struggle with defensive rotations and assignments against elite competition.
The contest with Troy should provide another good opportunity for him to stuff the stat sheet, but it’s his intangibles that don’t show up on the stat sheet that will be more important in these “lesser” matchups.
What to Watch for in Arkansas vs Troy
The Trojans are 2-0 on the season, including a true road win in their last outing – albeit against New Orleans, a team outside the top 300 in KenPom’s latest rankings. Their first win, however, came over Toledo (No. 132) by double digits.
Troy’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (ADE) according to KenPom ranks at No. 73, nearly 75 spots better than the last mid-major team Arkansas faced in Lipscomb. The Trojans have held their two opponents to 67.5 points per game on 38.8% from the field and 18.9% from long range – the latter of which ranks sixth nationally.
The Razorbacks have struggled on the offensive side of the ball far more than the defensive side of the ball this season. In fact, their 94.2 ADE is No. 11 in the country, according to KenPom.
The Hogs’ Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AOE), meanwhile, checks in at No. 52, a far cry from where they’ll need it to be if they want to make noise in the NCAA Tournament – or even survive their brutal regular-season schedule that still includes Illinois, Michigan and Miami (Fla.) before SEC play even starts.
Arkansas is still trying to get two of its key transfers back to full health in Johnell Davis and Jonas Aidoo, but no one is going to feel sorry for a team dealing with injuries, regardless of how early it is in the season. It is, however, worth noting that both players could help the offense improve as they continue to get healthier and more settled into their new roles.
The bigger concern is the lack of shooting from the other players on the team not listed with lingering injuries, and perhaps the lack of offensive motion and movement at times early in games that leads to slow starts.
This hyper-athletic team thrives in transition and capitalizes on its defensive strengths. Arkansas is in its element creating turnovers or grabbing long rebounds to immediately push the ball. Those opportunities should present themselves against Troy, which is 224th nationally in 3-point percentage and ranks just 183rd in offensive efficiency. In other words: The Trojans’ weakness should play into Arkansas’ hands.
Of course, in the long run, the Razorbacks’ ability to grow as a half-court team could be the single biggest factor – at this point in the season – that will determine exactly how good they can become.
Game Prediction
We’ve already seen this Arkansas basketball team go from a high-intensity game against a top-10 team to a lackluster performance against a theoretically weaker opponent when the Hogs came out flat against TCU after beating Kansas in the preseason.
The difference this time lies in the fact that Arkansas actually lost to Baylor in a game that counts. Hopefully for Hog fans, this difference will lead to a more inspired performance from the Razorbacks against a mid-major opponent.
The Hogs will find a bit more success from distance in front of a home crowd, even if it’s a stronger defensive unit in front of a mid-week, non-conference sized crowd. The athleticism of the Razorbacks should emerge defensively as they play the lowest rated offensive unit they’ve faced by far this season.
Arkansas will control this game more comfortably than it controlled the matchup against Lipscomb as it continues to grow together as a team and the star freshmen get more experience. Calipari continues to build offensive adjustments and continuity in his squad with by far the least amount of experience in the SEC, and the matchup with Troy is a great opportunity to put these early-season adjustments to the test.
Arkansas wins, 83-64
How to Watch Arkansas vs Troy
Date: Wednesday, Nov. 13
Location: Bud Walton Arena (Fayetteville, Ark.)
Tipoff Time/TV Schedule: 7 p.m. CT (SECN+ / ESPN+)
Odds/Betting Line: Arkansas, -13.5 (BetSaracen)
ESPN BPI: Arkansas has a 90.0% chance to win and is favored by 13.7 points.
KenPom: Arkansas has an 89% chance to win, with a projected score of 80-67
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Watch assistant coach Kenny Payne’s full press conference previewing the Arkansas vs Troy game:
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