The first SEC game of the season did not treat Arkansas kindly. Of course, the SEC did the Razorbacks no favors by scheduling them to hit the road against the No. 1 team in the country to start conference play.
Nevertheless, Arkansas took the hand it was dealt and all but folded late in a 76-52 loss to Tennessee.
Their biggest issue came on the backboards. The Volunteers secured nearly as many rebounds (51) as Arkansas had points, including more offensive rebounds (24) than the Hogs had defensive rebounds (20).
Those numbers, including the Hogs’ ugly minus-22 overall margin on the boards, have left the coaches, media and fans alike searching for answers. Some have even come up with seemingly oddball suggestions, such as one reporter who asked assistant coach Chin Coleman if the aggressiveness of Arkansas’ bigs might have contributed to getting whipped on the boards.
The logic was sound. Arkansas racked up 10 blocks against the Volunteers, so perhaps having Jonas Aidoo, Zvonimir Ivisic or Trevon Brazile going for blocks left it vulnerable to Tennessee grabbing offensive rebounds. Coleman smiled at the question, dismissing the idea that the Razorbacks needed to be less aggressive when going for blocks before explaining the Xs and Os behind what should happen.
“If we have a big who rotates over to block a shot, that means one of our perimeter guys either have to crack up or crack down to help them and come up with that offensive rebound,” Coleman said. “If it is blocked, if it is tipped, if we even make it a tough 2 and they miss it and our big deterred that shot or had something to do with that attempt, then we have to crack up, crack down and come up with that rebound. That is a point of emphasis of ours and our guards have to rebound down or rebound up.”
Reading between the lines, it sounds like Arkansas is looking for better rebounding from its backcourt. Against the Vols, Adou Thiero managed to grab five boards, but the Razorbacks’ trio of guards – Boogie Fland, D.J. Wagner and Johnell Davis – combined for only seven rebounds in 96 combined minutes, while freshman wings Karter Knox and Billy Richmond II combined for two in 27 total minutes.
It may have been an outlier performance, though, because even with the Tennessee game included, Arkansas ranks 61st nationally in opponent offensive rebounding (26.9%), according to KenPom — despite ranking ninth nationally in block percentage (5.6%).
The good news for Arkansas after Saturday’s blowout is that there are numerous opportunities still ahead to improve and build upon its tournament resume. The bad news: each of those opportunities come against solid, hard-nosed teams with just a few days in between games.
The Razorbacks’ next matchup is against No. 23 Ole Miss (12-2, 1-0). The game is set to tipoff at 6 p.m. CT and will be televised on ESPN2.
The Rebels started their SEC campaign with a win over Georgia. It was their third win over a team ranked inside the top 50 of the NET rankings, making them 3-2 in such contests.
Ole Miss has only played two games against teams ranked higher than Arkansas (No. 38) in KenPom’s rankings, a neutral site game against Purdue (No. 18) and a road game against Memphis (No. 31). The Rebels are 0-2 in these games.
Before the Razorbacks hired John Calipari to be their next head coach this summer, all signs pointed towards Chris Beard being the clear-cut favorite to land the Arkansas job. Insider reports indicate that the deal was “at the finish line” before Beard received an extension from the Rebels, taking his name out of the hat for the Arkansas job.
Of course, Razorback fans were understandably restless as the Hogs completed their coaching search, but they ended up with one of the best possible outcomes with an active Hall of Famer now on their sidelines.
What to Expect from Ole Miss
Offensively, Ole Miss is led by senior guard Sean Pedulla. After spending three years at Virginia Tech – including last season when he tallied 16.4 points and 4.6 assists per game as a junior – he brought his talents to Oxford.
Standing at 6-foot-1, he’s leading his new squad with 14.1 points to go along with 3.6 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 2.4 steals per game. He’s shooting an impressive 41% from long range on 5.6 attempts per game.
His backcourt partner is 5-foot-11 returner Jaylen Murray. He’s first on the team with 4.0 assists to go along with 12.5 points and 1.6 steals per game while shooting nearly 44% from three. Both guards will provide the Razorback backcourt with quite the handful as they attempt to slow them down.
Boogie Fland has shown his maturity as a true freshman leader for the Hogs, but he’ll continue to be tested night in and night out, including a likely matchup with the sharpshooting Murray.
There are only three players in the SEC averaging more attempts and a higher percentage than Murray – one of them being Tennessee’s Chaz Lanier, who just finished torching the Hogs for 29 points on 56% from distance.
Considering the Hogs’ abysmal rebounding performance against the Vols, it’ll be important for them to identify the Rebels’ biggest threats on the glass in their gameplan. On paper, that means the focal point should be Malik Dia, a 6-foot-9 junior transfer who spent his freshman season at Belmont.
Dia is averaging a team-high 5.5 rebounds per game, including a notable 18.7% rebound rate. For reference, Brazile leads the Hogs with a 16.0% rebound rate, followed by a 14.2% rate from Aidoo.
However, the more prominent threat to Arkansas likely comes on the offensive glass from 6-foot-5 guard Dre Davis. He’s a strong guard averaging 1.9 offensive rebounds and 4.0 free throw attempts per game.
One of the best ways to combat rebounding issues is to focus on rebounding as a team, having all five players crash the glass. That ideology will be as important as ever to help limit Davis’ impact on the offensive glass.
Jaemyn Brakefield (6-foot-8) is the third leading rebounder on the team with 4.9 boards to go along with 9.4 points and 2.0 assists per game – including a notably high assist rate (18%) for a player of his size. Only Fland (29.6%) has a higher rate for the Hogs.
What to Expect from Arkansas
DJ Wagner was just about the only player to show up offensively in the Hogs’ blowout loss to the Vols. He continued his hot scoring, tallying a team-high 17 points on 50% shooting from the field – though cooled off some from long range.
He’s now averaging 12.6 points, 3.4 assists and 3.4 rebounds while shooting 49% from the field and 44% from long range over his last seven games – including leading the comeback charge against Michigan in Arkansas’ biggest win of the season so far.
Fland still managed to score 12 points and contribute three rebounds, three assists and three steals. But he shot only 33% from the field and 22% from distance. Ole Miss is notably ranked lower than Tennessee in all defensive metrics – but it’s still nothing to take lightly, with Beard known as a defensive coaching savant.
The Rebels currently rank No. 11 in the country in steals per game as well as No. 26 – two spots behind Arkansas – in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric.
The Hogs’ performance on the glass against Tennessee was perhaps even more concerning than the final scoreboard. Facing the No. 1 team in the country in their first major road game was a recipe for a loss, but going down in the fashion they did with such poor effort on the glass should leave some lingering concerns as they move forward to Ole Miss and the rest of the SEC.
Aidoo had been making a huge impact for the Hogs as he returned closer and closer to his pre-injury production. In the five games prior to the matchup with Tennessee, he averaged 11.0 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, and 1.0 steals per game on 58% from the field.
However, these numbers were likely greatly bolstered by the lower level of competition the Hogs were playing in that stretch aside from Michigan. Aidoo was fortunate to face many smaller frontcourts and took full advantage.
In his return to Knoxville after spending three years as a Vol, the 6-foot-11 transfer tallied only four points and five rebounds in 29 minutes of action. He did contribute three blocks and two steals while shooting 67% from the field, but he did little to help the Hogs avoid the blowout loss they suffered – though clearly no other Hogs did enough to stop the beatdown either.
The main issue with Aidoo struggling so much against a bigger, physical team is that Arkansas doesn’t exactly have a big, physical backup center to help him patrol the paint. Brazile and Ivisic have both thrived in their roles at times, but neither are considered bruisers in the paint.
They’re both more of finesse players, better at blocking shots from the help side, knocking down shots and contributing more on the offensive end rather than locking down the paint. This will be a huge storyline to watch against basically every SEC team the Hogs face until they figure something out on the glass.
What to Watch in Arkansas vs Ole Miss
Thankfully, Ole Miss is not necessarily built to dominate opponents on the glass. They rank outside the top 200 in offensive, defensive and total rebounds per game as a team. Playing back home in Bud Walton Arena, this is a perfect opportunity for Arkansas to settle down, figure out its issues in the paint and put together a quality win early in SEC play.
One of the biggest factors in the game against Tennessee was how different the pace of play was between the Vols and the Hogs. At the time, Tennessee had a notably slower pace of play than any other team in the SEC while the Hogs were among the top three fastest teams in the league.
The Vols still hold the top spot for slowest pace, but the gap has closed slightly after their game against Arkansas. The Rebels are also in the bottom half of the league in this metric, but they average only 2.3 possessions per 40 minutes fewer than the Hogs.
In other words, Arkansas has a much better chance of imposing their will and playing their preferred style of basketball – especially since this game will be played in front of their home crowd, which might afford them an extra forced turnover or two.
Taking the style of play one step further, Arkansas has been the worst team in the SEC at drawing free throw attempts this season. It currently averages only 17.1 attempts while 12 other SEC teams average at least 21.2 attempts per game.
On the flip side, the Rebels are among the worst teams in the conference in personal fouls committed per game. This is likely a byproduct of their high steal numbers, ranking No. 11 in the country and No. 4 in the SEC with 10.2 per game.
Arkansas could take advantage of this weakness if it keeps consistent pressure on the rim and takes care of the ball. The Rebels are likely to gamble for steals, opening potential scoring opportunities if the Hogs make smart decisions offensively.
Game Prediction
The Razorbacks are 52-34 all-time against the Rebels, including winning nine of their last 11 matchups and six of the last seven in Fayetteville. However, Ole Miss won the last matchup between these teams during the incredibly disappointing 2023-24 season for the Hogs.
Arkansas and Calipari likely took the recent loss at Tennessee personally. Losing to No. 1 on the road isn’t necessarily something to be ashamed of, but their poor effort and performance in several aspects of the game leading to such a lopsided loss was not only unexpected, but also unacceptable.
If the Hogs want to be a tournament contender, they’ll have to adjust and do it quickly amid this brutal conference slate.
Returning home to Bud Walton Arena will spark some life into the Hogs already looking to avenge themselves. Role players generally always play and shoot better on their home court as well, lending to the thought that Arkansas will jump back in the win column on Wednesday night.
Led by the efforts of Fland and Thiero – as Arkansas fans have grown accustomed to – the Hogs will pick up their first SEC win of the Calipari era.
Arkansas wins, 77-72.
How to Watch Arkansas vs Ole Miss
Date: Wednesday, Jan. 8
Location: Bud Walton Arena (Fayetteville, Ark.)
Tipoff Time/TV: 6 p.m. CT (ESPN2)
ESPN BPI: Arkansas has a 54.1% chance to win and is favored to win by 1.0 point.
KenPom: Arkansas has a 56% chance to win, with a projected score of 75-73.
Odds/Betting Line: Arkansas, -3.5 | O/U 148.5 (BetSaracen)
***
Even with the Razorbacks sitting at a respectable 11-3, national folks continue to pile on John Calipari in his first season as the Arkansas basketball coach:
***
Inside Arkansas discusses whether Hog fans should hit the panic button after the Tennessee loss:
***
More coverage of Arkansas basketball from BoAS…
