FAYETTEVILLE — The Razorbacks have quite a few issues to iron out, but one statistic illustrates something that needs to be addressed sooner rather than later, beginning in the Arkansas vs Florida matchup.
Sitting at 0-2 in SEC play, John Calipari is in danger of losing his first three conference games for the first time since his debut season at UMass back in 1988-89, when the Minutemen opened A-10 play 0-6. That’s because the Gators come to Bud Walton Arena ranked No. 8 nationally and fresh off a 30-point beatdown of No. 1 Tennessee.
If the Razorbacks are going to have a chance to pull off the upset, they must begin the process of reversing what is now a four-year trend for Calipari-coached teams.
Through 15 games, Arkansas has a free throw rate — a statistic that calculates how many free throws a team takes per field goal attempt — of just 29.5%. That ranks 261st nationally, which would make it the lowest ranking for any of Calipari’s 33 teams as a Division I coach, dating back to his UMass days.
This hasn’t come out of nowhere, though. As Bart Pohlman pointed out on the Chuck & Bo Show this week, it’s a trend that’s followed him from Kentucky — and one that’s coincided with the recent decline of his postseason performances. In Pohlman’s opinion, that’s concerning because getting to the charity stripe has been a staple of Calipari’s dribble-drive motion offense over the years.
“If you go back and look at his teams at Kentucky and Memphis, they were always really good at getting to the foul line and getting easy points from the free throw line,” Pohlman said. “That hasn’t been the case the last several years. It’s been continuing here at Arkansas and there’s been some negative impacts to the offense.”
Sure enough, the numbers show just that, even including his time at UMass:
Kentucky
| Season | Free Throw Rate | NCAA Rank | Postseason Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 30.4% | 242nd | Round of 64 |
| 2022-23 | 31.9% | 154th | Round of 32 |
| 2021-22 | 28.0% | 249th | Round of 64 |
| 2020-21 | 34.5% | 86th | no postseason |
| 2019-20 | 40.8% | 14th | NCAAT canceled (proj. 2 seed) |
| 2018-19 | 41.9% | 10th | Elite Eight |
| 2017-18 | 44.0% | 3rd | Sweet 16 |
| 2016-17 | 40.9% | 45th | Elite Eight |
| 2015-16 | 37.8% | 144th | Round of 32 |
| 2014-15 | 43.9% | 29th | Final Four |
| 2013-14 | 51.8% | 29th | National Runner-Up |
| 2012-13 | 41.7% | 36th | NIT first round |
| 2011-12 | 41.7% | 47th | NCAA Champion |
| 2010-11 | 36.1% | 219th | Final Four |
| 2009-10 | 43.6% | 54th | Elite Eight |
Memphis
| Season | Free Throw Rate | NCAA Rank | Postseason Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-09 | 39.9% | 76th | Sweet 16 |
| 2007-08 | 40.4% | 67th | National Runner-Up |
| 2006-07 | 42.4% | 45th | Elite Eight |
| 2005-06 | 39.4% | 79th | Elite Eight |
| 2004-05 | 44.0% | 22nd | NIT semifinal |
| 2003-04 | 38.3% | 136th | Round of 32 |
| 2002-03 | 37.9% | 119th | Round of 64 |
| 2001-02 | 40.1% | 96th | NIT champion |
| 2000-01 | 41.1% | 123rd | NIT third place |
UMass
| Season | Free Throw Rate | NCAA Rank | Postseason Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1995-96 | 42.0% | 74th | Final Four |
| 1994-95 | 39.9% | 108th | Elite Eight |
| 1993-94 | 44.3% | 47th | Round of 32 |
| 1992-93 | 49.5% | 13th | Round of 32 |
| 1991-92 | 52.2% | n/a* | Sweet 16 |
| 1990-91 | 45.2% | n/a* | NIT fourth place |
| 1989-90 | 45.6% | n/a* | NIT first round |
| 1988-89 | 40.7% | n/a* | no postseason |
Over his first 28 seasons, Calipari’s teams ranked outside of the top 150 in this particular stat just once. Most of the time, his teams were above 40%. Prior to his final four years at Kentucky, it bottomed out at 36.1%.
During the pandemic-altered season of 2020-21, though, it dropped to 34.5% and Kentucky missed the postseason entirely. Each of his teams since then, including this year at Arkansas, have hovered around 30%.
This will be something to monitor for the Razorbacks as they move further into their SEC slate, beginning Saturday against the Gators. Follow along below for updates, stats and highlights from that matchup…
(READ NEXT: Check out our in-depth preview of Arkansas vs Florida)
LIVE UPDATES — Arkansas vs Florida
Pregame Tidbits
No players are listed on the SEC availability report. That’s good news for Arkansas, as Zvonimir Ivisic has been battling an ankle injury. Of course, just because he’s available doesn’t mean he’s fully healthy and will play normal minutes.
The game will start on ESPNEWS at 3:10 p.m. CT.
15:20, 1H – Arkansas 11, Florida 4
Similar to the Ole Miss game, the Hogs are off to a great start. It was 11-2 before Calipari subbed in Johnell Davis and Trevon Brazile. Davis has since missed back-to-back 3s, but it’s still a 7-point lead for Arkansas. The Hogs are hanging tough on the boards (6-5 Florida edge) and have good ball movement, with four of their five buckets being assisted.
11:21, 1H – Arkansas 13, Florida 13
The Hogs’ early lead is completely gone. Florida is on a 7-0 run, as Arkansas has had some poor shot selection and Florida has started to assert itself on the offensive boards. The Gators have five second-chance points off four offensive boards, the last two of which have been the result of not blocking out.
7:53, 1H – Florida 17, Arkansas 16
Trevon Brazile snapped a scoring drought of nearly 5 minutes by knocking down 1 of 2 free throws and then ended the FG drought by coming up with a steal and dunk. That got the crowd on its feet, with a shot clock violation by Florida making it get pretty loud in Bud Walton. However, a turnover by Boogie Fland gave it right back to the Gators.
3:41, 1H – Florida 23, Arkansas 20
Rebounds have been an absolute battle so far. The Hogs have had to earn every single one of their 10 defensive boards, while Florida has grabbed nine offensive rebounds – leading to seven second-chance points. However, Arkansas is hanging tough, despite the 21-13 overall rebounding margin.
HALF – Florida 28, Arkansas 25
Arkansas forced a turnover in the closing seconds and Trevon Brazile got a tip-in at the buzzer to make it a one-possession game. It was an ugly half of shooting, as Florida went 3 of 16 from deep and Arkansas went 1 of 6. The Razorbacks will need to be better on the boards, as they were minus-9 overall and gave up nearly as many offensive rebounds to Florida (12) as they grabbed defensive rebounds (13).
HALFTIME STATS
15:50, 2H – Florida 38, Arkansas 29
The crowd hasn’t been too fond of the officials so far this half, as the Hogs have already been called for four fouls and they’ve sustained some contact without a whistle. The Gators have grown their lead to nine, as Arkansas is 0 of 3 from the floor since the break.
13:28, 2H – Florida 43, Arkansas 32
The Hogs have made just 1 of 6 shots so far this half and are 1 of 11 on layups for the game. Meanwhile, Florida has seen a couple of 3s fall since halftime. That’s helped the Gators build an 11-point lead, with the last one prompting a Calipari timeout.
7:55, 2H – Florida 53, Arkansas 45
It’s not over just yet. Arkansas is showing some life, with Thiero following a missed shot and throwing it down for a dunk. With the crowd on its feet, Wagner came up with a steal on the ensuing possession and took it the length of the floor. He was fouled at the rim, so he’ll be shooting two free throws with a chance to make it a 6-point game.
3:43, 2H – Florida 63, Arkansas 52
A monster dunk by Wagner pulled the Hogs within 3, but the Gators stretched their lead by back to double digits in the blink of an eye. They did it, naturally, with the help of a couple of offensive rebounds. They now have 19 second-chance points from 16 offensive boards.
FINAL — Florida 71, Arkansas 63
It was a foregone conclusion down the stretch, as Arkansas never got closer than 7. That came on a Fland 3-pointer, but the Gators answered with a 3 of their own.
FINAL STATS
Starting Lineups
| Florida Basketball | Arkansas Basketball |
|---|---|
| #1 – Walter Clayton Jr. – G | #2 – Boogie Fland – G |
| #5 – Will Richard – G | #21 – D.J. Wagner – G |
| #15 – Alijah Martin – G | #11 – Karter Knox – F |
| #4 – Alex Condon – F | #3 – Adou Thiero – F |
| #9 – Rueben Chinyelu – C | #9 – Jonas Aidoo – F |
How to Watch Arkansas vs Florida
Date: Saturday, Jan. 11
Location: Bud Walton Arena (Fayetteville, Ark.)
Tipoff Time/TV: 3 p.m. CT (ESPN)
ESPN BPI: Florida has a 59.9% chance to win and is favored by 2.5 points.
KenPom: Florida has a 71% chance to win, with a projected score of 80-74.
Odds/Betting Line: Florida, -4 | O/U 158.5 (BetSaracen)
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