Ranking Hogs’ Best Players Unearths Promising Starting Lineup That Hasn’t Been Tried

Karter Knox, Arkansas basketball
photo credit: Craven Whitlow

Just 11 regular-season games remain in Arkansas’ disappointing 2024-25 season. The Hogs started with a thin lineup of just nine rotation players, but they’ve battled injuries all season and a few transfers have disappointed.

It’s no surprise to most who the top two players have been. Junior Adou Thiero has outpaced expectations and leads Arkansas in multiple categories, including, it often seems, all-out hustle. Boogie Fland, who led the team in assists and minutes, was also clearly near the top before being sidelined with a hand injury that is expected to keep him out the rest of the year.

The pecking order after that muddies considerably. An eye test doesn’t make it immediately clear who slots in under Thiero now as the top Hog’s top players. That’s where a deeper look using advanced analytics can help.

An Obvious Top 2 for Arkansas Basketball

No. 1 – Adou Thiero

Adou Thiero leads the team in scoring (16.1 ppg), rebounding (6.2 rpg ) and steals (1.8 spg), making him a fairly easy choice for Arkansas’ best player at this point. His usage rate (percentage of team’s possession-ending plays, like shot attempts or turnovers) of 30% is the highest on the team. He’s only turning it over on 12% of his possessions, which is also really good. Only Boogie Fland (9%) and Karter Knox (11%) are lower.

Thiero’s biggest problem is that his shooting efficiency has collapsed in SEC play, falling to just 48%. In the non-conference, he had only one game with a field goal percentage less than 50%, but he’s already had four such performances in seven conference games.

And because he’s not a guard, Arkansas has to be intentional about getting him involved. He inexplicably attempted a season-low four field goals in the Oklahoma loss, just days after a double-double performance filled with clutch plays against Georgia.

No. 2 – Boogie Fland

It will be awhile before we see Boogie Fland again, if we see him at all in a Razorback uniform following his hand surgery. Fland led the team in minutes played (34.1 per game) while he was healthy. He is second on the team in scoring (15.1) and leads the team in assists (5.7), while ranking third in steals per 100 possessions (2.5). He still leads the team in total plus-minus, with the Hogs out-scoring opponents by 182 points with him on the floor.

Fland’s only real weakness was that he was never a very efficient scorer, due to his penchant for taking difficult shots. He’s sitting at a respectable 36% on 3-point attempts, although he was just 8 of 29 (28%) in SEC play. But the bigger issue was inside the arc. Fland is just 57 of 139 (41%) on 2-point attempts, which translates to a meagre 0.82 points per attempt. Anything less than 1 is pretty bad, and about 1.1 is a good baseline to shoot for.

Fland’s season is a good argument for John Calipari taking a look at his offensive scheme this offseason. Like predecessor Eric Musselman, he likes the midrange jumper, which has long been labeled as the least-efficient shot in basketball. The Hogs rank just 228th in percentage of shots that come at the rim (layups, dunks, tip-ins) and 228th in percentage of shots that come from behind the arc. Instead of those shots, about 26% of Arkansas’ shots are 2-point jumpers.

Let the Debate Begin

No. 3 – D.J. Wagner

A former five-star recruit at Kentucky, D.J. Wagner underwhelmed as a freshman. While Calipari seemed confident in a Year 2 breakout, it’s been “same song, second verse” for the 6-foot-4 sophomore from Camden, N.J.

Like Fland, Wagner is an inefficient scorer, averaging just 0.96 points per field goal attempt, third-worst on the team. But Fland at least offers a 3-point threat and the ability to draw fouls, and Wagner is worse at both. He’s shooting 33% from beyond the arc this year and creates a team-worst 0.22 free throw attempts per 2-point field goal attempt.

I ranked him third because he has been a solid defender. The Hogs’ adjusted defensive efficiency is 88.7 with him on the court, and it tanks all the way to 102.3 when he leaves the game. That’s the biggest dropoff for any player on the team. He doesn’t accumulate a ton of defensive stats, but the numbers notice his solid team defense.

No. 4 – Zvonimir Ivisic

Zvonimir Ivisic got a head start on the season with Jonas Aidoo injured. When Aidoo returned, though, he was mostly relegated to the bench. He played single-digit minutes in Arkansas’ first four SEC games, scoring a combined three points. But he has, for now, re-won the main center job, playing at least 20 minutes in three straight games.

The numbers mostly favor Ivisic over Aidoo. He generates assists at three times the rate of his teammate (3.3 per 100 possessions, versus 1.3) and blocks a team-high 5.7 shots per 100 possessions. And after a slow start to the year, he’s up to 40% from beyond the arc, the best on the team.

Some fans feel Ivisic is a poor defender, but the numbers don’t really agree with that. While he’s had some individual issues rotating back to the basket, Arkansas has a team adjusted defensive efficiency of 87.9 with him on the floor, which is actually the best on the team, edging out Wagner and Fland. The Hogs get about four points per 100 possessions better defensively when he’s in the game.

The bigger issue for Ivisic has been offense. Arkansas’ current scheme hasn’t quite figured out how to use his unique skillset, so he often ends up awkwardly moving around the perimeter, setting screens and hoping to get left open for a 3-point attempt. Because he’s been an efficient scorer (1.16 points per shot attempt), the Hogs should probably seek to let him shoot more, especially as he’s shown more of a shooting arsenal, including a hook shot. His team-worst 20% turnover rate limits how often the Hogs want him touching the ball, although it should be noted that his turnover rate is just 12% in SEC play, as he’s stopped trying to handle the ball on the perimeter as much.

Slotting In the Disappointing Transfers

No. 5 – Johnell Davis

Two things can be true at once: Johnell Davis has been disappointing, and Davis is very important to the Razorback team, especially on offense.

Arkansas clearly intended for Davis to be a 3-and-D guard who could space the defense and create lanes for Fland, Wagner and Thiero to get to work. He was only supposed to play point here and there. That’s not really how Florida Atlantic used him over the last few years, and the plan has not worked at all. At FAU, the whole offense was built around Davis, who was the primary ball handler and worked mostly off the dribble, taking just one-third of his field goal attempts from beyond the arc.

Davis has looked mostly hesitant and uncomfortable in Arkansas’ offense from the beginning. A wrist injury suffered before the season probably didn’t help, as he wasn’t 100% until December. He’s had stretches of good shooting, but for the year, he’s shooting just 38% from the floor and 32% from beyond the arc. His 17% turnover rate is the second-worst on the team.

And yet, benching him hasn’t worked. Arkansas’ offense doesn’t improve when he leaves the game, and defense gets about one point per 100 possessions worse when he’s on the bench. Despite his poor shooting in SEC play, Davis’ willingness to shoot (63% of his field goal attempts are 3-pointers, the highest rate on the team) combined with his reputation coming into the season mean that opponents still view him as a threat.

The Hogs wanted him to score and stretch the defense; at the very least, he’s been somewhat effective at doing the second. There was also a six-game stretch during non-conference play in which he shot 50% from deep. His impact this season has similarities to Jordan Walsh in 2023. Walsh is another player whose actual stats were disappointing, but he made the Arkansas offense better because the threat of his athleticism on the perimeter helped space the defense.

No. 6 – Jonas Aidoo

You can probably make a case that Jonas Aidoo has been even more disappointing than Davis. He’s a very good individual rebounder, leading the team with 14.4 rebounds per 100 possessions. He’s been a reasonably efficient scorer at 1.10 points per shot attempt. But he was advertised as one of the nation’s premier interior defenders, and he’s been very far from that this year. Like Davis, he spent the early part of the year injured, but Arkansas’ defense has been unimpressive with Aidoo in the game all season, and the Hogs are actually better defensively with Aidoo out of the game.

One outlier was against LSU in the fourth game of the SEC slate, when Aidoo played more than 20 minutes and the Hogs were actually plus-9 in his 30 minutes in that game (meaning they were outscored by 13 points in the 10 minutes he was out of the game). Despite that brief uptick, Big Z has gotten the lion’s share of minutes at center in the last three outings.

The Other Arkansas Basketball Players

No. 7 – Trevon Brazile

Trevon Brazile is another guy who seems a bit out of place in this offense. He’s shooting an incredible 67% from the floor this year, and he averages a team-best 1.42 points per field goal attempt. He also generates 0.56 free throws per 2-point attempt, second-best on the team behind Karter Knox. His 18% turnover rate is a bit high, but overall, he’s been solid on offense this year.

Unfortunately, you have to play defense, too. His skillset is ill-suited to defend as a true center, so his best shot at minutes is to play the 4, but he’s just not as good all-around as Thiero. The hope for him was that he could become an elite help defender, but two different Arkansas coaches haven’t been able to get him to realize that potential. Arkansas’ defense has an adjusted defensive efficiency of 97.3 with him on the floor; only Billy Richmond sees worse numbers.

And Arkansas’ defense gets a staggering 12 points per 100 possessions (7-8 points per game) worse with Brazile on the floor. As much Brazile has improved in terms of effort and productions, he still often finds himself out of place as an individual defender. When he’s not blocking a shot, as he does so spectacularly below, he’s often allowing an open one.

Another reason for the severe drop-off, as BoAS contributor Brandon Baker says, may involve the quality of the defenders who surround Brazile when he usually enters games as part of the second unit.

The gap between Brazile and Thiero on defense is so large that Brazile’s efficient scoring is more than offset by his defense.

No. 8 – Karter Knox

The true freshman started slowly, but is on the rise now. His shot’s not really falling, and it hasn’t all season. He’s shooting just 39% overall and 28% from beyond the arc. But the 6-foot-6 Florida native is finding other ways to contribute, and it’s earning him more minutes.

After not reaching 30 minutes in any of the first 18 games, he’s played 34 and 35 minutes over the last two. He’s become a solid rebounder and he leads the team with 0.76 free throws attempted per 2-point field goal attempt. Unlike several Razorback scorers who are not physical around the rim, Knox fights through contact and earns trips to the line, which have helped boost his numbers.

Knox’s willingness to be physical is paying off for the Hogs. He was plus-14 against Georgia and even plus-3 in the Oklahoma loss. He’s up to fifth on the team in plus-minus per 100 possessions on the floor. That’s up from seventh when SEC play started.

Knox has been the biggest beneficiary of Fland’s injury, and he’s turned his minutes increase into a productivity increase. He’s eighth on the list now due to his season-long numbers, but he’s got a good shot to finish much higher.

#9 – Billy Richmond III

Billy Richmond III has shown some flashes as a freshman, especially when he’s been able to use his athleticism in space. But he still has a lot of maturing to do. In terms of on-floor team efficiency, he is Arkansas’ worst player on offense (104.6) and defense (97.5).

Offensively, he’s shooting a solid 57% on low volume, but he contributes nothing to spacing, doesn’t draw fouls and turns it over on 16% of his possessions. Defensively, he’s struggled to defend without fouling. For every personal foul against him, he’s creating just 0.45 steals plus blocks, worst on the team. Still, he plays with a tremendous motor that might benefit him in fast-paced games.

Potential Lineup Changes for Arkansas Basketball?

John Calipari and staff backed themselves into a corner this year by signing only nine rotation players. With Boogie Fland out, there’s not much the Hogs can do. I think the Hogs will try and be a little bit deeper next year to ensure this doesn’t happen again.

Eric Musselman used a more physical lineup to turn the 2022 season around, with Muss inserting Trey Wade into the starting lineup to create more length and physicality. Calipari could do something similar.

To do that that, you’d want Wagner at point guard. Surround him with Knox, Thiero, Brazile and Aidoo. If you wanted more floor spacing (and 3-point shooting), you could swap Aidoo for Ivisic. Even without Ivisic, it’s still a huge lineup, with heights of 6-foot-6, 6-foot-8, 6-foot-10 and 6-foot-10 alongside Wagner, with Thiero and Knox both capable of handling the ball in space.

Interestingly, according to EvanMiya.com’s lineup tracker, the Hogs have yet to play Wagner/Knox/Thiero/Brazile/Aidoo together this year. The upside of Knox-Thiero-Brazile together on offense might be enough to replace the offensive boost that Davis provides. Yes, Knox and Brazile together probably weakens the defense. But with the Hogs running out of time to salvage anything positive from this year, a lineup like that might be worth a shot.

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Hogs’ Most Efficient Lineups To Date (via EvanMiya.com)

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