For the first time this season, Arkansas fully dismantled a mid-major opponent on its home court Monday night, beating Maryland-Eastern Shore by 74. They had previously won each of their prior four mid-major matchups by an average of 14.8 points per game, though none came without struggles at one point or another.
Most kept the game closer than expected, some even pushing the Hogs to only a single-digit lead late in the game, but neither was the case against Maryland-Eastern Shore – the worst team the Hogs will play this season.
Arkansas dominated this game from start to finish, jumping out to a 9-0 lead before the Hawks ever scored, tallying a 28-0 run and finishing with what was tied for the third-largest margin of victory in school history. While demolishing one of the lower-ranked teams in the country isn’t exactly a big accomplishment, it should be noted that 35 points is the fewest Arkansas has allowed against any team since they beat Vanderbilt 56-33 in January 2013.
However, the Hogs’ defensive performance still fell one point shy of the last outing from their next opponent, Illinois. The Fighting Illini defeated Little Rock 92-34 on their home court Monday night, one game after holding the same Maryland-Eastern Shore team to only 40 points.
Illinois is now 5-1 on the season with their lone loss coming to the only SEC opponent it’s faced in Alabama. The Illini lost that matchup 100-87 on a neutral court, though it shouldn’t be indicative of how good or bad they are given Alabama’s high expectations and talent level for this season.
This is the first game in the toughest non-conference stretch of the season for Arkansas, as it is followed by an away game against Miami in the SEC/ACC Challenge and another neutral site game against Michigan in Madison Square Garden sandwiched around a home game against UTSA.
The game between Arkansas and Illinois will tip off at 3 p.m. CT Thursday at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City. The marquee Thanksgiving Day matchup will be televised on CBS.
What to Expect from Illinois Basketball
As a team, Illinois shoots the ball from long range at an extremely high volume. They average 34.3 attempts, ranking No. 4 in the country, while also making 11.3 three-pointers per game. Their percentage, however, sits at only 33%, right around No. 200 in the nation.
Still, the Hogs must do well to keep the Fighting Illini in check from long range. On the season, Arkansas has done a relatively good job of limiting teams from deep – even if it sometimes feels from a fan perspective like teams catch fire in Bud Walton Arena. Their opponents are only shooting a combined 27% from 3-point range, including five of their six opponents being held to under 33%.
Leading the charge for the Fighting Illini in scoring is a 6-foot-8 forward Will Riley. Though he’s come off the bench in each of his team’s first six games, the freshman is averaging 17.2 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.8 assists. Most impressively, he’s also shooting 55% from long range on 5.2 attempts per game.
This will be the key player for Arkansas to limit in this game – though obviously not the only scoring threat. Riley has already started cooling off some from distance after starting at a blistering 71% pace over his first four games. Since then, he’s been closer to 35% – which is still a very good mark for a collegiate shooter. It would rank him fourth on this Razorback team that has also shot the ball exceptionally well for stretches this season.
Illinois’ next three leading scorers all stand at least 6-foot-6, but none are more notable than a certain 7-foot-2 Croatian with the last name of Ivisic. The Fighting Illini, it turns out, have a unicorn of their own in Tomislav Ivisic, Zvonimir’s twin brother.
“When we were kids, we were playing every day, 1-on-1, just shooting or whatever, just having fun,” Zvonimir Ivisic told reporters Wednesday. “I was good. I was beating his ass every time.”
Somewhat similar to Big Z, Illinois’ version of the stretch big is doing a decent job at stretching the court and protecting the rim, but his overall impact has come in different ways. He’s averaging 15.5 points and 8.7 rebounds per game while only hitting 28% from long range and blocking 0.8 shots per game.
Checking in 10 pounds heavier than his brother at 255, Tomislav is a much more consistent rebounder and inside scorer than Zvonimir, averaging over double the number of rebounds and nearly 60% of his total shot attempts from inside the 3-point line. By comparison, Big Z is attempting only 41% of shots inside the arc.
This matchup between near-identical people – but notably different players – is certainly be one of the more intriguing storylines for Arkasas this season.
Perhaps the most well-rounded player on the Illinois roster is freshman guard Kasparas Jakucionis. Standing at 6-foot-6, he has become a sort of Swiss Army Knife for the Fighting Illini. He’s averaging 12.0 points, a team-high 6.3 assists, 6.0 rebounds and 1.8 steals while hitting 35% of his 3-pointers.
Other notable rotation players for Illinois:
- Ben Humrichous: 6-9 | SR | 10.3 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.2 BPG
- Kylan Boswell: 6-2 | JR | 8.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.2 APG
- Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn: 6-1 | SO | 7.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 57% FG
- Tre White: 6-7 | JR | 8.8 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 0.8 SPG
What to Expect from Arkansas Basketball
It’s hard to have too many meaningful takeaways from a 70-point blowout, but this “get right” game couldn’t have come at a better time for a pair of Razorbacks.
Johnell “Nelly” Davis was one of the highest ranked players in the transfer portal this past offseason and made national headlines when he committed to play for Calipari at Arkansas. However, he’s been far from his All-America level from a season ago when he averaged 18 points and shot over 40% from long range.
After shooting 40% from the field and 21% from long range over his first five games as a Razorback, Davis finally seemed to find some rhythm in the Hogs’ blowout victory. He shot 4 of 7 from long range, putting him at 46% from deep over his last three games – including an 0-of-3 performance against Little Rock.
Arkansas can be a good team with Davis struggling, but they won’t come close to scratching “contender” status without him being a consistent scoring threat from the perimeter. Sometimes, for a shooter as good as Davis, all it takes to find a rhythm is seeing the ball go through the hoop a few times. This could be the single biggest key for Arkansas fans to watch heading into this tough non-conference stretch, starting with Illinois on Thursday.
The other Razorback that benefited from the glorified shooting practice the Hogs participated in Monday was freshman forward Karter Knox. He had been shooting an abysmal 16% from the field and 7% – no, that’s not a typo – from distance over his first five career games.
Despite the horrendous start, Knox has tremendous scoring versatility and potential, and it’s reasonable to expect those percentages to balance out some over the course of the season, just like they did against UMES. The Overtime Elite product led his team in scoring with 21 points while hitting 38% (3 of 8) from long range.
Perhaps the most encouraging sign from Knox was his continued effort on both ends of the court, even when shots weren’t falling in previous games. Several of his points in the blowout victory came from him quickly getting out in transition on long rebounds or forced turnovers and simply beating one man to the rim for a layup on the break.
Both Knox and Davis finding their footing offensively will take this Razorback team – currently ranked No. 81 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency – to the next tier of offenses. The defense has been nothing short of exceptional through six games, ranking No. 7 on the defensive side of KenPom’s metrics. If the offense can take steps forward, the talent of this roster may finally shine through.
Boogie Fland and Adou Thiero are doing their best to continue carrying the load for Arkansas offensively, averaging a combined 35.2 points per game on 57% from the field, 42% from distance, and 79% from the charity stripe. They also lead the team in assists and rebounds per game, respectively, while being No. 1 and 2 in steals per game as well.
While Thiero has been arguably the most improved player in the country this season, Fland has burst onto the scene as a freshman — and may only be scratching the surface of his potential.
“He can get it going,” Calipari said about Fland in an interview on the New Day with SSJ radio show in Kansas City on Wednesday. Calipari of course has been very pleased with his star point guard’s performance so far, to the point where he’s considering a change of tact from how he previously planned to use him. “I probably gotta get him a few more shots than he’s getting, but he’s playing well.”
It will be interesting to see how Arkansas holds up against better competition, starting with Illinois – which is currently ranked No. 17 defensively, easily the best defensive team Arkansas has faced this season. Baylor and Troy both currently rank between No. 65 and No. 75, a far cry from the top-20 defensive status Illinois currently holds.
The biggest question mark on the Razorback roster when it comes to maintaining production against better competition, however, is Zvonimir Ivisic. Fans have gotten used to him launching from long range at will and providing elite interior defense against mid-major opponents, but he played a season low in minutes, tallying only 2 points and 1 block, in the game against Baylor.
Big Z’s ability to stay on the court due to his defensive and mobile limitations will likely be a recurring storyline all season, but he has a chance to silence a lot of that chatter early in this matchup against his brother.
What to Watch in Arkansas vs Illinois
Illinois is currently ranked as the No. 1 rebounding team in the country with 50.2 rebounds per game, including 15.7 offensive rebounds. It’s worth keeping in context that they snagged 56 rebounds against both Eastern Illinois and Maryland-Eastern Shore, teams they beat by an average of 46 points per game.
While Arkansas’ Ivisic brother has been phenomenal from a shooting and rim protection standpoint this season, his rebound numbers have been relatively underwhelming considering his 7-foot-2 frame, grabbing only 4.2 rebounds per game.
For reference, the Hogs average 36.5 rebounds per game and limit opponents to roughly 9.2 offensive rebounds, ranking them 85th-worst in terms of offensive rebounds allowed per game.
The biggest factor to watch in terms of the rebounding battle will be how much – if at all – Jonas Aidoo is able to play in this matchup and how big of an impact he makes on the glass. It’s also notable that every single player that has played meaningful minutes for Arkansas this season is averaging at least 3.3 rebounds per game, led by Adou Thiero at 5.8 per game.
One of the best ways to contain a great rebounding team is to put full effort into team rebounding. Guards and wings crashing the glass should help to limit the Illini big men, and both Johnell Davis (4.7 RPG) and Billy Richmond (4.2 RPG) have both shown to be exceptional at this particular skill set so far this season.
Of course, guards crashing the paint also opens the door for long rebounds coming off of 3-point attempts, something that’s very hard to predict or control as the defensive rebounding team. And as previously mentioned, Illinois takes an incredibly high volume of 3-point attempts.
The battle of the glass could easily be the single most impactful factor that decides the winner of this matchup.
Game Prediction
Arkansas is 1-5 all time against Illinois, with its lone win coming in the teams’ last matchup in the first round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament – one game before the Hogs went on to knock off No. 1 seed Kansas in the second round.
This will be only the second game between the two teams outside of the state of Arkansas or Illinois, and the Hogs are currently 1-0 in such games – as that NCAA Tourney game was in Des Moines, Iowa.
The potential return of Jonas Aidoo will bolster the Razorbacks’ interior enough to mitigate any advantage the Illini have as an elite rebounding team. This, along with the intense defensive pressure Arkansas has displayed all season, will be enough to slow down Illinois’ offense on a neutral court.
Davis continues to find his form as he recovers from a nagging wrist injury while the usual leaders of the offense continue to lead the charge. Fland and Thiero will show that they can be impressive against more than just mid-major opponents.
Arkansas comes away with a huge neutral site, early-season, non-conference victory in a Thanksgiving Day marquee matchup.
Arkansas wins, 74-69
How to Watch Arkansas vs Illinois
Date: Thursday, Nov. 28
Location: T-Mobile Center (Kansas City, Mo.)
Tipoff Time/TV Schedule: 3 p.m. CT (CBS)
Betting Line: Illinois, -2.5 | O/U 151.5 according to select sports books with cashable no deposit bonus with no wagering requirements in the USA
ESPN BPI: Illinois has a 68.1% chance to win and is favored to win by 4.7 points
KenPom: Illinois has a 60% chance to win, with a projected score of 76-74
More on Arkansas vs Illinois
It appears Arkansas might have big man Jonas Aidoo back in the fold today, as he was taking part in warmups a couple hours before tipoff. This comes after Trevon Brazile returned to action against UMES on Monday. If Aidoo is good to go today, he would bring the Hogs back to full health in their nine-man core.
This is a big development to monitor in the interior of the Razorbacks alongside the battle between the Ivisic twins and the chess match between John Calipari and Brad Underwood.
Make sure to keep with updates from the game here:
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