If anyone was unfortunate enough to watch only the first half of Arkansas’ game against UTSA, they’d likely come away with a much worse picture of the Razorbacks than what the second half of the game painted.
As has become the trend this season, the Hogs started the game relatively slowly, finding themselves with a five-point deficit at halftime. Thankfully for Razorback fans, a 48-point outburst led them to a 75-60 win over the Roadrunners.
A large part of the impressive second half was the much-improved play of Arkansas transfer guard Johnell Davis. He went 3 of 5 from long range, including 2 of 3 after halftime, and scored double digits for the third time in his last four games.
After dealing with a wrist injury through the offseason and clearly struggling to come back from it to start the regular season, Davis seems to be settling into his role with the Hogs nicely now – and it couldn’t come at a better time.
The Razorbacks’ next game is against Michigan at Madison Square Garden in New York City, a marquee matchup between two teams with high expectations this season. The Wolverines rank No. 21 on KenPom, No. 23 in the NET rankings and are favored by 1.8 points with sportsbetting specials available with exclusive CSGO500 promo code. They are winners of their last seven games, making them 8-1 on the season, and the last three of those wins were against teams in the top 100 of the NET rankings and top 65 in KenPom’s rankings.
Tipoff of Arkansas vs Michigan is scheduled for 8 p.m. CT Tuesday and it will be televised on ESPN.
What to Expect from Michigan Basketball
The Wolverines are notably well-balanced in terms of scoring threats at the top of their roster. They’ve had the same starters in each of their nine games this season, and four of them are averaging between 12.0 and 12.2 points per game.
The most notable members of this group are the pair of seven-footers. Danny Wolf, a junior transfer from Yale that was on Arkansas’ radar prior to Eric Musselman leaving, leads the team in rebounds with 10.0 – including 2.3 offensive rebounds – to go along with 1.8 blocks and 1.3 steals.
He holds perhaps the most potential to cause the Razorbacks fits with his interior presence as Arkansas continues to work its three big men back into the rotation simultaneously.
The other big man, Vladislav Goldin (7-foot-1), is an FAU transfer and former teammate of Johnell Davis. He’s notably lighter than Wolf, though he’s attempted only two 3-pointers on the season. Wolf plays more of the stretch-big role when the two share the court, as he’s hitting 32% of his 2.8 attempts per game.
This will be a huge (no pun intended) test for the Hogs as they approach the end of the non-conference season. Not only because of Michigan’s resume and metrics, but because they provide perhaps the best opportunity for Arkansas to deploy a twin-tower lineup so far this season.
Zvonimir Ivisic missed Arkansas’ last game as he nurses an ankle injury, but if he’s able to go in this contest, it’ll be very intriguing to see how he looks in extended minutes alongside either Trevon Brazile or Jonas Aidoo.
Junior guard Roddy Gayle Jr. sits at the top of Michigan’s scoring leaders with 12.2 points to go along with 3.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. He’s perhaps the most well-rounded player on Michigan’s from a statistical perspective, though he’s a far cry from carrying the weight of someone like Nijel Pack from Miami in Arkansas’ last high-major game.
Tre Donaldson – a 6-foot-2 junior – leads the team in assists at 4.0, as well as being one of the players in the 12-points-per-game club. He is hitting an impressive 45.5% from long range on over 3.5 attempts per game – though he’s not even the Wolverine’s best shooter.
Nimari Burnett holds that title with a blistering 45.9% on 4.1 long-range attempts per game. He averages only 8.9 points, but he’ll certainly be toward the top of the scouting report as a threat from behind the arc given the Hogs’ struggles to guard the perimeter at times this season.
Much like Arkansas, the Wolverines have only four players outside of its starters that get consistent meaningful minutes.
The Hogs have had somewhat of a carousel of players in their lineup due to injury even with only nine total players available at full health. The battle of depth and who’s in better shape between these two squads could be one to watch.
Another key battle will be the turnovers committed by each squad. Arkansas has been at its best when forcing turnovers, and Michigan has struggled greatly this season with hanging onto the ball. The Wolverines currently rank in the bottom third of the country in terms of turnovers committed.
What to Expect from Arkansas Basketball
After another slow start, the Hogs put both their offensive and defensive firepower on full display in the second half against UTSA. Arkansas scored 48 points on 67% shooting from the field while holding their opponent to 28 points on 39% shooting to put this game away.
Zvonimir Ivisic missed this contest with a sprained ankle after having a quietly good run over his last six games. He is averaging 13.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.8 blocks, and 1.0 steals while shooting 64% from the field and 58% from long range in that stretch.
However, Ivisic has often struggled with lateral quickness and being in the right spots defensively when playing against high-major opponents, or truthfully against any offensive schemes that put him in a lot of pick-and-roll actions.
His presence and ability to keep up defensively are going to be huge storylines against this Michigan squad that boasts two seven-footers in the starting lineup.
Adou Thiero – after having some struggles from the field and the charity stripe in his last two games – bounced back with a career-high-tying performance against UTSA. His 26 points in the last matchup were matched only by his 26-point outing against Illinois two games prior.
Against the Roadrunners, however, Thiero hit 10 of his 13 free throw attempts, whereas against the Illini he went only 12 of 21 from the stripe. The 6-foot-8 transfer was a career 76% free throw shooter before transferring to Arkansas and has shot 74% as a Hog outside of a two-game stretch against Illinois and Miami where he was a combined 13 of 24 (54%).
This is significant because of Thiero’s aggressive and athletic style. He’s developed into a primary scorer for the Hogs, becoming a threat as a shooter, driver and slasher without the ball in his hands. This has often led to free throw attempts for the athletic forward, so his ability to remain consistent from the stripe could be the difference between wins and losses for the Hogs – as it arguably was against Illinois.
Boogie Fland had his second inefficient game in his last three games, scoring only six points on 3-of-11 shooting, including going 0 of 3 from long range. Two games ago against Illinois, Fland hit only 2 of 12 from the field on his way to 8 points.
In his down game against UTSA, the freshman phenom was still able to impact the game in many ways, however. He tallied 7 assists (tied for a career high) to go along with a career-high 6 rebounds and a steal in 31 minutes.
The Wolverines are one of the worst teams in the country in terms of team steals and turnovers forced, so even despite their impressive record so far, Fland should have a great opportunity to bounce back and step into his offensive rhythm as the team’s floor general.
What to Watch in Arkansas vs Michigan
Arkansas has been a fun, high-flying team for much of the early season – when it’s able to force turnovers and get out in transition. When they play against a team that doesn’t turn the ball over often and forces them to be a halfcourt team, the Hogs have struggled.
Michigan, though, currently ranks as the No. 22 in the country in terms of most turnovers committed this season, averaging 15.1 per game. Arkansas is averaging 14.0 turnovers by comparison and forcing its opponents into 15.2 turnovers per game.
Arkansas has lost or tied the turnover battle four times this season. Two of those games were its two losses against Baylor and Illinois. The other two were against Little Rock – a game in which it only led by single digits with two minutes remaining – and against UTSA when it trailed at halftime before a second-half outburst.
The Hogs have to learn to be a better half-court team, becoming more efficient in their offensive sets, but the turnover battle could be the most important game within the game as the Razorbacks attempt to take down the Wolverines.
Michigan is also notably down as a team from behind the 3-point line. They’ve hit over 35% of their long-range attempts on the season, but the Wolverines are shooting only 30.1% from distance in their last five games – and that includes an 11-of-22 shooting performance against Xavier. The other four games were all under 30% as a team.
The Wolverines have taken 33 or more 3-pointers twice this season. One of those games resulted in a loss to Wake Forest on a neutral court – Michigan’s only loss of the season. The other was a win over Virginia Tech when the Wolverine’s trailed the Hokies (currently ranked No. 151 in KenPom) midway through the second half.
While Arkansas should not allow open looks to Michigan, potentially allowing it to find its rhythm, it’s worth noting that deterring drives and limiting their opponents’ opportunities in the paint could lead to the Wolverines settling for long-range shots and potentially shooting themselves out of the game like they’ve nearly done twice this season.
Game Prediction
Arkansas is 3-4 versus Michigan all-time, with one of those losses coming at Madison Square Garden. The two teams met in the NIT Semifinals back in March 1997, when the Wolverines took home a 77-62 victory over a Razorback team led by Kareem Reid and Pat Bradley.
The current Razorback squad is 1-2 against high-majors with a chance to finish at an even 2-2 depending on the outcome of this game. They’re certainly still fighting to get everyone healthy at the same time.
The Hogs fully understand the gravity of this early-season test before they head into their non-conference home stretch. Davis is continuing to find his role offensively, and much like we saw against Miami, Fland has no qualms about stepping up in big moments.
The guard duo – along with Adou Thiero and Zvonimir Ivisic in the front court – will lead the Hogs to an exciting victory over the Michigan Wolverines in The Mecca of basketball.
Arkansas wins, 77-73
How to Watch Arkansas vs Michigan
Date: Tuesday, Dec. 10
Location: Madison Square Garden (New York City, N.Y.)
Tipoff Time/TV: 8 p.m. CT (ESPN)
ESPN BPI: Michigan has a 57.1% chance to win
More on Johnell Davis and Boogie Fland:
The matchup inside Madison Square Garden is a homecoming of sorts for freshman point guard Boogie Fland, a native of The Bronx. According to college basketball insider Adam Zagoria, the star freshman is expected to have 40-plus family and friends in attendance. That number includes the entire team and coaching staff at Stepinac High School, Fland’s alma mater.
There will also be a deep sense of familiarity, of course, with Davis and his former coach and teammate on the other side of the court in Dusty May and Vlad Goldin.
More on that here:
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