One game removed from a Thanksgiving Day disaster in which Arkansas basketball could never get over the hump against Illinois, the Hogs found themselves in a similar situation on the road against Miami (Fla.) on Tuesday night. A slow start created a double-digit first-half deficit for the third time in as many games against high-major opponents.
Illinois was able to stifle any comeback attempt with timely – and unbelievably efficient – 3-point shooting, and Baylor kept the Hogs at arm’s length, roughly 5 to 9 points away, virtually the entire game.
However, against the Hurricanes, Arkansas was finally able to surmount a late comeback that gave them their first lead of the game with 1:47 left on a corner 3-pointer from Boogie Fland, fed by an incredible spinning, cross-court, mid-air dime from Adou Thiero. They went on to win 76-73.
Not only was the victory important for the Razorbacks from a resume standpoint considering the game against Miami is currently categorized as a Quadrant 3 wing, it should also go a long way in developing the confidence and experience of this team still trying to put together all of their pieces at once.
Arkansas is now 1-2 against other high-major opponents this season with one more opportunity looming against Michigan in Madison Square Garden, aka “The Mecca” of basketball. However, while it’s fun as fans to look ahead to the marquee matchup, it’s important for the players and staff to recognize that there’s one more opponent in their path before they head to the Big Apple next week.
Up next, the Hogs will return home for one more matchup with the University of Texas San Antonio (UTSA). While the Roadrunners are not in one of the conferences widely regarded as “high-major,” the AAC is a quality conference containing many quality teams.
UTSA, however, currently sits at 3-4 on the season with one of those wins coming against a non-DI team. They’ve lost to both Little Rock and Troy – both teams Arkansas has already defeated – as well as ranking outside the top 240 in both KenPom and the NET rankings. Only Maryland-Eastern Shore and Pacific rank lower in both metrics among teams Arkansas has faced so far this season, and only UCA and North Carolina A&T rank lower among future Hog opponents.
What to Expect from UTSA Basketball
Despite their disappointing record and relatively poor team metrics, the Roadrunners are not a team to take lightly, especially with how they’ve been playing lately. After securing back-to-back wins over Merrimack (neutral site) and Houston Christian, UTSA took Saint Mary’s to overtime where they eventually lost by single digits.
They’re limiting teams to 40% from the field and 23% from long range in this three-game stretch, though free-throws allowed has been an Achilles’ heel of sorts.
Offensively, the Roadrunners are led into battle by junior guard, Primo Spears. The 6-foot-3 transfer is currently playing for his fourth team in four years, though he seems to finally have found his best fit in UTSA.
Spears currently ranks in the top five nationally in scoring with 23.7 points per game to go along with a team-high 3.9 assists and 1.7 steals. Sophomore guard Marcus Miller (5-foot-11) joins Spears in the backcourt and contributes 3.4 assists and 1.6 steals per game of his own, though he only tallies 12.3 points per game on much lower volume.
Miller (39%) is one of five key players for UTSA currently shooting better than 33% from long range on the season. He’s technically fourth on the team in terms of three-point percentage, but he’s the only one hitting at that high of a rate while averaging at least 2.0 attempts per game.
Damari Monsanto is a 6-foot-6 senior that rounds out the top three scorers for the Roadrunners with 10.3 points per game, but it’s a different pair of tenacious forwards who don’t necessarily score a lot that could give the Hogs fits on the interior.
Jonnivius Smith (6-foot-9) and Raekwon Horton (6-foot-6) lead the team in rebounds per game with 9.7 and 6.7, respectively, but it’s their offensive rebounding prowess that should have the Hogs’ full attention. They combine for 6.1 offensive rebounds per game, helping UTSA rank No. 18 in the nation when it comes to offensive rebounding.
For Arkansas to succeed in a brutal SEC schedule this season, it’s going to have to hold its own on the backboards. UTSA’s prowess on offensive boards should serve as good preparation for the harder tests to come, especially against teams like Florida (No. 17 nationally in offensive rebounding) and Texas A&M (No. 1 in the same category).
Arkansas plays the Gators on Jan. 11 and the Aggies on Feb. 18.
What to Expect from Arkansas Basketball
Arkansas got another step closer to deploying all three of their big men at full strength in their last matchup against Miami, but Zvonimir Ivisic came into the contest with an injury designation and reported minutes restriction due to a sprained ankle.
Still, Big Z logged 14 minutes (four more than his reported cap) and tallied an efficient 11 points on 3-of-4 from long range. He’s now hitting 58% from long range on the season, including five games with multiple threes on at least 40% shooting from long range. Ivisic has also recorded multiple blocks in all but one game. That lone rejection came against Baylor when he played 17 minutes.
The Hogs have a legit trio of big men when they’re all available. Along with Big Z’s perimeter shooting and length, Jonas Aidoo is looking more mobile and active game-by-game, while Brazile provides a great blend of “small-ball” due to his speed and shooting ability combined with his elite athletic prowess.
The three interior players each played between 12 and 19 minutes against Miami – though it’s worth noting that all three could now be classified as “recovering from injury,” so the rotation could change as they each get healthier. Their presence in limiting UTSA’s offensive rebounding prowess will likely prove vital in putting their next matchup out of reach early.
Adou Thiero had his first down performance of the season against Miami, scoring only seven points on 30% from the field, including 0-of-2 from distance, and hitting only one of his three free throw attempts. While it was a pleasant surprise for Hog fans that the other players rallied despite Thiero’s performance, it’s his next game that could be the most telling.
The Kentucky transfer became an instant leader for John Calipari’s first team as the Arkansas head coach, so his ability to put this poor performance behind him and go back to the level of production fans have already become accustomed to will set the tone for this team.
It’s also worth noting that Thiero appeared to hit his head on the backboard during the final offensive possession for the Hogs when he was fouled on an alley-oop attempt.
He appeared fine and attempted both free throws, but with the precaution surrounding head injuries in today’s collegiate landscape, it wouldn’t be surprising for Thiero to go through extra evaluation prior to tipoff against UTSA.
One of the players that stepped up the most in the absence of Thiero’s production was the Hogs’ alleged top transfer, Johnell Davis. The 6-foot-5 guard scored 12 points, easily his most against a high-major opponent this season, and shot 3-of-6 from long range. He’s now hitting 53% from long range over his last three games after starting at 21% from distance through his first five games in the cardinal and white.
We’ve already reached the point in Boogie Fland’s career where 18 points, 6 assists, 44% from long range, and numerous clutch plays from the freshman phenom isn’t even the headline of the Razorback section. He’s already worked his way into clear lottery contention for the upcoming 2025 NBA Draft with his stellar play, and he’ll have another opportunity to show off his full skillset and leadership against a pesky backcourt in UTSA.
What to Watch in Arkansas vs UTSA
The Roadrunners are among the worst teams Arkansas will face this season on paper, but that doesn’t mean they’re not capable of giving the Hogs fits. Aside from the telltale signs of a classic “trap game” surrounding this contest, UTSA also excels in a few specific stat categories as a team.
For starters, they rank No. 11 in the country in steals per game with 10.6 as a team, led by 6-foot-6 junior, Raekwon Horton with 2.2 steals per game. Four other Roadrunners also average at least 1.5 steals per game, including their leading scorer, Primo Spears, at 1.7 SPG.
Arkansas commits 12.0 turnovers per game as a team, including only 8.3 over their last three games, and limits their opponents to roughly 6.6 steals per game. In turn, they grab 10.0 SPG as a team, ranking in the top 25 in the country. However, this is one of the more likely stats to be affected if Arkansas comes out unfocused and sleepwalking against a theoretically inferior opponent – certainly a statistical battle to watch if this game stays close longer than it should.
UTSA is also an elite free-throw shooting team. They currently rank No. 4 in the country at 82.1% from the charity stripe as a team, thanks in large part to their two leading scorers – Spears and Millender – combining to hit 85% of their 9.6 attempts per game.
The Hogs have shown flashes of being a good defense throughout the early season, but they’ve come unraveled against quality opponents running certain offensive actions, such as high pick-and-rolls or pick-and-pops.
Arkansas is only giving up 13.4 free throw attempts per game – including an average of 10.5 to UMES and Pacific, the two most comparable teams to UTSA in terms of metrics to this point in the season.
However, UTSA has struggled to keep its opponents off of the free throw line on the other end of the court. They average allowing 23.4 free throw attempts per game, but that number has ballooned to 32.3 over their last three games.
Much like turnovers, fouls and free throws given up are an easy part of the game to lose control of if a team is not focused and starts playing sloppy against an opponent they’re not taking seriously. If the Hogs allow the Roadrunners to get to the line often in this matchup, not only will they be giving an elite free-throw team easy opportunities, they’ll also likely be testing their depth once again should their key players find themselves in foul trouble.
Game Prediction
The Hogs are coming off of a high-emotion win over Miami after finishing on a 10-2 run in a three-point win. Their next game is against Michigan in Madison Square Garden. UTSA has some of the lowest rankings among all the teams the Hogs will face this year.
All of these are key components of trap games.
However, the Razorbacks have already had their fair share of lackadaisical performances against “lesser” opponents on paper this season, holding marginal leads late in games against teams they should’ve easily handled.
They’re also still working on getting their full team on the court and fully healthy for the first time this season. This should lend to the hope that Arkansas does not come out flat in this matchup against the Roadrunners.
Thiero will bounce back in a big way, as his athleticism usually allows him a few easy opportunities per game against opponents like UTSA. Fland will lead the Hogs offense as he’s done in every game this season, while Davis continues to find his footing as a shooter and assert himself more in the pecking order of Razorback scorers.
Expect the Hogs to look scary as they take another step forward in getting their full team available.
Arkansas wins, 88-60.
How to Watch Arkansas vs UTSA
Date: Saturday, Dec. 7
Location: Bud Walton Arena (Fayetteville, Ark.)
Tipoff Time/TV: 1 pm CT (SECN+ / ESPN+)
ESPN BPI: Arkansas has a 96.2% chance to win and is favored by 20.2 points.
Betting Line: Arkansas, -19 | O/U 155.5 (BetSaracen)
***
***
More coverage of Arkansas basketball from BoAS…
