When the Arkansas basketball team finally takes the floor again Monday night, it will be its first game in nine days and just its third in the last 16 days. Needless to say, there could be some added holiday rust to shake off in the opening minutes of the Hogs’ next contest.
In its last outing, Arkansas took down North Carolina A&T by a score of 95-67. The Hogs coasted to the victory with relative ease without the help of arguably their most heralded transfer from the offseason, Johnell Davis. The former Florida Atlantic guard reportedly missed many of the offseason practices dealing with an injury to his shooting wrist, but the game against N.C. A&T was the first time it has caused him to miss action this season.
Given the extended break Arkansas has had between each of their last three games – along with the fact that all three teams are ranked extremely low in most metrics – this missed game could be nothing more than a bit of predetermined rest for the star guard to ensure his wrist is feeling 100% as SEC play quickly approaches.
While it’s certainly not a bad thing to rest an important part of the rotation who has been fighting back from a nagging injury, it also means that Arkansas has still yet to truly see their full, healthy rotation in action due to injuries and illnesses. There have been games where all nine rotation players saw the court, but most of those came with limited minutes to star center Jonas Aidoo.
Now the Hogs have one more non-conference game against the Oakland Golden Grizzlies (4-9, 1-2 in Horizon League) to put together their full lineup and work out any kinks in their game plan before the start of the SEC schedule. The game will tipoff at 7 p.m. CT Monday and will be televised on ESPN2.
This looks like any other early-season mid-major opponent at first glance. But for Arkansas basketball coach John Calipari, and all of his transfers that followed him to Arkansas from Kentucky, this game should carry a bit of extra weight.
In the 2024 NCAA Tournament, the 14-seeded Golden Grizzlies defeated Calipari’s 3-seeded Wildcats in what turned out to be his final game coaching at Kentucky. Of course, sharp-shooter Jack Gohlke – a player who attempted only eight 2-point attempts across 36 games last season – played a major role in defeating the Wildcats with his 32-point performance on 10 of 20 shooting from long range. Without the additional disgruntlement among the UK fanbase that loss generated, it’s possible Calipari would have stayed in Lexington for at least another season.
Another fortunate turn of events for the Hogs: Gohlke is now battling for minutes in the NBA G-League rather than demoralizing college defenses again this season.
However, over its last five games, Oakland might have found a suitable replacement for the 3-point marksman who had attended the same school as Hogs football player Isaac TeSlaa.
What to Expect from Oakland
Malcolm Christie may not be currently leading the Golden Grizzlies in scoring for the season as a whole, but the 6-foot-5 senior has hit his stride over his last five games. He’s bumped his 3-point percentage from 28% over his first eight games to over 37% in his last five. This includes a three-game stretch where Christie hit 15 of his 36 long range attempts, good for nearly 42% from distance.
He’s cooled off marginally, hitting only 32% over his last two games, but he’s still shown to be a more-than-capable shooter. If he plays, Johnell Davis could be a likely matchup for Christie. Should he catch fire, watch for a combination of Adou Thiero and Billy Richmond being thrown at the sharpshooter in an attempt to slow any momentum he may build for Oakland.
For the season, Allen David Mukeba leads the Grizzlies in scoring with roughly 99.2% of his shot attempts coming from inside the arc. He’s averaging 13.1 points, including two of his last three games with 20-plus points. Each of these scoring outbursts came in arguably two of Oakland’s best performances of the season.
They defeated Loyola-Chicago (No. 138 in NET, No. 118 in KenPom) in a neutral site game, arguably their best win of the season, behind 20 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 stocks (steals+blocks) from the 6-foot-7 senior. Then the Grizzlies took Oregon State (No. 51, No. 65) to overtime in another neutral site game before ultimately losing 80-74 – a game in which Mukeba went 10-of-10 from the field, tallying 21 points, 7 rebounds, and a pair of assists, steals, and blocks. Despite the loss, the Grizzlies – and Mukeba – seem to be clicking more than they were earlier in the season.
Each of the next two leading scorers for Oakland are also seniors, joining Christi and Mukeba to form an experienced, savvy core for this Golden Grizzlies squad.
DQ Cole is listed as a 6-foot-3 forward and averages 3.8 rebounds along with his 11.4 points per game. Tuburu Naivalurua (6-foot-6) rounds out the quartet with 11.3 points per game on 55% shooting from the field.
Though Mukeba leads the team in rebounding, the biggest threat on the interior for the Hogs could come from 6-foot-8 forward, Isaiah Jones. The junior is in his second season at Oakland but missed the first six games of the season for the Grizzlies.
Since his return on December 5, he’s started five of the seven games he’s appeared in, averaging 5.7 points and 3.7 rebounds per game. The most notable part of his game, though, is his affinity for grabbing offensive rebounds. He’s grabbing 2.4 per game, giving him an offensive rebound rate of 13.9%. For reference, Jonas Aidoo is Arkansas’ most prolific offensive rebounder this season – especially considering some of the smaller teams Arkansas has faced so far – and his OREB rate is only at 10.7%, marginally ahead of Trevon Brazile (9.1%).
Other notable players in Oakland’s rotation:
- Jaylen Jones (6-1, SO) | 5.5 PPG, 3.7 APG, 3.2 RPG
- Jayson Woodrich (6-7, SR) | 5.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.1 SPG
- Cooper Craggs (6-5, SO) | 3.5 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 31% 3P
What to Expect from Arkansas
The Hogs have virtually been on cruise control – in a good way – since their impressive performance against Michigan three games ago. Each of their last two opponents have been extremely low in most metrics, but unlike earlier in the season, Arkansas appeared exactly like they were supposed to look.
It’s hard to say any game is perfect, but the Hogs have performed well in every aspect of the game, despite missing Adou Thiero against UCA and Johnell Davis against NC A&T.
Neither of these absences seem to be major cause for concern, especially Thiero considering he’s already returned to action. Davis’s absence could certainly be something to monitor, but it’s important to remember that he missed much of the offseason with this injury, and a stretch of two games in 20 days – both of which come against lesser opponents – is the perfect time to give the star transfer some additional and precautionary rest.
A major part of their recent success – including in the Michigan game – has been the return of Jonas Aidoo. Over his last two games against mid-major opponents, Aidoo is averaging 15.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, including 2.5 offensive rebounds, 2.5 blocks, and 1.0 assists per game while shooting 68% from the field and 80% from the free throw line. This includes a 17-point and 11-rebound double-double in his last outing.
Aidoo’s presence on this team gives them a different dynamic on both sides of the court. Obviously, his All-SEC Defensive Team selection speaks for itself defensively, but his ability to set solid screens, be where he needs to be offensively, and hunt offensive rebounds while playing alongside Trevon Brazile has opened things up in the best way for Arkansas.
The former Volunteer should have no issues controlling the paint in the Razorbacks final non-conference game. His only issue may be overlooking this contest a bit considering the following game is on the road against his former team in Tennessee.
Boogie Fland continues to provide what the Hogs need from the lead ball-handler position, including securing his first career double-double against North Carolina A&T with 12 points and 11 assists. The true freshman is now averaging 9.0 assists over his last three games to go along with 16.0 points and 2.7 steals.
His only weak point to this part of the season has been his efficiency as a scorer. Many times already this season he has struggled mightily to finish inside the 3-point arc, but his stellar long-range shooting saved his percentages and total points. However, in his last three games, Fland has cooled off from distance, hitting only 29% from beyond the arc.
This hasn’t been an issue against relatively lesser opponents, but when SEC teams take away Arkansas’ ability to dominate the paint the way they’ve done lately, Fland’s scoring ability will become much more vital to their offensive attack.
Another reason his struggles haven’t been detrimental has been the emergence of DJ Wagner as a knock-down shooter. The Kentucky transfer is now shooting 53% from long range over his last five games, including a 2-of-3 performance to help take down Michigan.
The most unsung hero for Arkansas, however, has been the resurgence of Trevon Brazile. Of course, the highlight dunks and emphatic rejections are fun to watch, but the small things that he’s accomplished as he’s settled into his role with this team is what has made them such a well-oiled machine.
The chart below shows Offensive Rating plotted against Defensive Rating for each of the main nine rotation players this season. One metric doesn’t always tell the full story – Boogie Fland, for example, likely has a bigger impact than this efficiency metric might indicate – but this metric gives a good idea just how impactful Brazile has been on both sides of the court.
The lone Razorback returner is averaging 12.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.0 blocks, and 1.7 assists per game while shooting 75% from the field and 33% from long range over his last three games. He’s continuously been in the right place at the right time, capitalizing on every opportunity lately.
His continued improvement and ability to excel in this role could be the difference between making the NCAA Tournament or not for Arkansas.
What to Watch: Arkansas vs Oakland
The Golden Grizzlies are an experienced team, led by a quartet of seniors and a good coach in Greg Kampe. They are, as Calipari well knows, a prime candidate to upset any high-major opponent they face – regardless of what their current record might indicate.
On top of that, Oakland is a very good team at taking care of the basketball and not committing too many turnovers. They rank No. 76 in the country with only 10.9 turnovers per game. By comparison, Arkansas is currently forcing 14.3 turnovers per game and are still at their best when getting out and running in transition.
Early in the season, a team that took care of the ball and limited the Hogs’ fastbreak opportunities would provide a real challenge for Arkansas despite any talent gap. However, lately it hasn’t mattered as much. The Razorbacks are growing as a half-court team offensively thanks to the return of Aidoo, the lights out shooting of Wagner and the emergence of Brazile as a star role player.
All of these trends need to continue for Arkansas to be considered a true tournament contender this season, and a tune-up game against Oakland with SEC play less than five days away is the perfect opportunity for the Hogs to show that it doesn’t matter what style of play their opponent plays – they can be talented and versatile enough to overcome and adapt.
Game Prediction
Arkansas has been coasting in high gear against mid-major opponents as of late, and nothing different should be expected in their final non-conference game of the season.
Their stars will continue doing what they do best, while role players like Zvonimir Ivisic and Billy Richmond and Karter Knox will continue to get their feet under them and thrive against lesser athletes and opponents.
Arkansas will handle this game with little to no issues, avenging Calipari’s final loss as a Wildcat last season.
Arkansas wins, 84-60.
How to Watch Arkansas vs Oakland
Date: Monday, Dec. 30
Location: Bud Walton Arena (Fayetteville, Ark.)
Tipoff Time/TV: 7 p.m. CT (ESPN2)
ESPN BPI: Arkansas is favored to win by 19.4 points.
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A First–Person Look at Smaller Crowds at Bud
We all know NIL and the transfer portal are wreaking havoc on college sports and Arkansas basketball has been the epitome of change in Calipari’s first year.
Outside of Trevon Brazile, the Razorbacks’ roster is brand new. It’s hard to care about people you don’t know, more or less, spend money on them and invest time in them.
As a sports journalist, I’m at least a little more in touch with players from around college sports, but for a lay fan like my wife, transfer players are a void
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