Arkansas vs Kentucky: The One Muss Let Get Away Points to Hogs’ Sore Spot

John Calipari, Koby Brea, Arkansas basketball, Arkansas vs Kentucky
photo credit: Craven Whitlow / UK Athletics

The biggest game on Arkansas’ schedule, and perhaps in all of college basketball, has arrived.

It may not be the Razorbacks’ toughest opponent – Auburn and Alabama still loom later this season – and it’s not even a top-25 matchup, but this game holds weight for a different reason: John Calipari is making his return to Rupp Arena as an opposing coach for the first time since leaving for Fayetteville.

A trio of transfers – Adou Thiero, DJ Wagner and Zvonimir Ivisic – are also returning to their former stomping grounds when Arkansas takes on No. 12 Kentucky at 8 p.m. CT Saturday on ESPN.

“The four of us will sit down,” Calipari said of the former Wildcats. “There will be some emotions now walking into Rupp Arena… I’ve just got to talk to them about being calm in the storm.”

The new-look Wildcats are off to a slower start in SEC play than perhaps they expected after barrelling through a tough non-conference slate with an 11-2 record. However, their 4-3 conference mark is nothing compared to the rocky road Calipari’s Razorbacks have faced, sitting at just 1-6 and tied for 14th in the league.

Arkansas got a much-needed week off after suffering yet another disappointing loss in their last outing – a three-point loss to Oklahoma in which the Razorbacks had a chance to win in the closing seconds.

While no game is an easy win in the SEC, that was considered one of the “easier” matchups remaining for the Razorbacks. Now they get to suit up against a Kentucky squad that owns one of the nation’s best offenses led by first-year coach Mark Pope.

Don’t let Arkansas’ horrid start to conference play fool you: the energy level inside Rupp Arena is sure to be above and beyond a normal SEC matchup.

“There may be some boos,” Calipari said. “There may be a lot of boos.”

What to Expect from Kentucky Basketball

Coming into the season, one area many outsiders were concerned about Kentucky was its ability to have a go-to scorer who could create for himself or others off the dribble when time was running out.

Mark Pope squashed that ideology early with his team’s unselfish style of play and elite efficiency from beyond the arc. He loaded his squad with seven senior transfers – and one junior – who all bought into his system and style of play.

This question was raised again when senior point guard Kerr Kriisa went down Dec. 7 with a foot injury that was expected to sideline him for several weeks. He has yet to return.

The Wildcats, however, have hardly missed a beat. They’ve still been one of the premier offensive teams in the country, ranking No. 3 in points per game (87.6) and No. 10 in assists per game (18.1) as a team.

This is a stark contrast to the Razorbacks’ style of play, which relies heavily on defensive stands and their best players finding ways to get to their spots – which has become even more prominent with the loss of freshman point guard Boogie Fland.

Kentucky’s leading scorer is Oklahoma transfer Otega Oweh. The 6-foot-5 junior averages 15.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.7 steals while shooting nearly 32% from long range this season.

Last season, he led the Sooners to a win over Arkansas in Tulsa by scoring 14 points and making both of his 3-point attempts.

This matchup between Oweh and Adou Thiero holds the potential to be must-see TV. The Kentucky wing plays bigger than his listed height – largely due to his 210-pound frame. Thiero does the same, though his 6-foot-8 frame allows him to play more at the four than Oweh.

Lamont Butler (6-foot-2) is Kentucky’s next leading scorer at 13.2 points per game – while also leading the team in assists (4.8 apg) – but he missed the Wildcats’ last matchup against Tennessee. Oddly enough, Kentucky is now 3-0 in games without its starting point guard, but Pope still feels Butler “is the heart and soul of this team. If and when we get him back, we’re going to be elated. We certainly need him.”

Next on the list of high-scoring Wildcats is a name that should be familiar to Arkansas basketball fans: Jaxson Robinson. As a transfer from Texas A&M, the 6-foot-7 sharpshooter played sparingly in his lone season with the Razorbacks, likely due to his lackluster defense, before hitting the transfer portal again.

Robinson has proven to be “the one who got away” during Eric Musselman’s tenure, as he went on to star for Pope at BYU. He considered the NBA Draft after two years with the Cougars, but ultimately followed his coach to Lexington.

He’s scoring 13.1 points per game while shooting 36.0% from long range and has been even better in conference play, putting up 15.3 points and shooting 45.5% from deep. Robinson has also occasionally taken on ball-handling responsibilities when both Kriisa and Butler were absent.

However, Robinson doesn’t quite hold a torch to the absolute shooting frenzy that fifth-year senior Koby Brea was on to start the season. The New York City native hit nearly 61% of his 3-point attempts through his first eight games as a Wildcat.

While Brea has cooled off some since, hitting only 45% in conference play, the Dayton transfer turned in an impressive 3-of-3 performance in the upset victory over Tennessee on the road. This certainly feels like the type of player who could go on a quick 9-0 run of his own against a team like Arkansas if there are a few defensive lapses.

Andrew Carr has been Kentucky’s most impactful interior player, though he suffered an injury on Jan. 18. He returned to action Tuesday, but didn’t even log a full two minutes.

His availability against Arkansas will certainly be one to monitor, as he was averaging 12.6 points and 6.0 rebounds on 54% from the field in nine games prior to injury – including matchups against Gonzaga, Ohio State, Florida, Texas A&M and Mississippi State.

Other notable players in Kentucky’s rotation:

  • Amari Williams (6-10, Sr) | 9.8 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 1.5 BPG
  • Ansley Almonor (6-7, Sr) | 6.1 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 43% 3P
  • Brandon Garrison (6-11, So) | 5.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.3 APG

What to Expect from Arkansas Basketball

Adou Thiero – one of three players making his return to Rupp Arena for the first time this weekend – is arguably the most improved player in the country from a season ago. A major factor on both sides of the ball, he’s turned in numerous stellar performances and leads the Hogs in scoring.

He took only four shots in Arkansas’ loss to Oklahoma.

In fact, Thiero is averaging 13.5 points on just 6.0 shot attempts per game in the two contests since Boogie Fland’s injury compared to 14.2 points on 10.3 shot attempts in the six games prior.

When Arkansas needed him most, he seemingly vanished from the offensive gameplan. A large part of this is the fact that he’s still growing as an on-ball playmaker. He thrives in transition and does well to get to his spots without the ball – including grabbing offensive rebounds.

Regardless of the style of play or who is running the show as the lead ball handler for the Hogs, their 6-foot-8 leading scorer has to find a way to get more involved in the offense. Perhaps that was one of the things Calipari discussed with this star player earlier this week.

“He and I had a heart-to-heart the other day about some of the things he’s got to start changing and doing,” Calipari said. “I said, ‘I’m saying this because you have the chance of being one of the best, well then be that.’ It was just these three things. You can do these.”

Speaking of lead ball handlers, D.J. Wagner and Johnell Davis have combined to shoot 16 of 56 (29%) from the field, including 5 of 27 (19%) from long range, in the two games without Fland. Indeed, one of the main themes of this Razorback season is how much of a sore spot three-point shooting has become. Wagner and Davis also combine for only 5.0 assists per game compared to Fland’s 6.3 over his last 10 games prior to injury.

Now, more than ever, Arkansas could use a player with the skillset of Jaxson Robinson or Koby Brea. Coming into the season, Calipari rolled the dice with a nine-man rotation featuring three true freshmen and only one mid-major transfer (Davis), but in hindsight probably should have gotten at least one more mid-major transfer (either a shooter or rugged big) – even if that had meant paying less in NIL for other players.

All that will have to wait for next year, though. In the present, Arkansas must get better guard play to give itself a chance to win games or, at the very least, stay competitive against top tier SEC teams like Kentucky.

Offense has to come from somewhere, and the two primary facilitators combining to shoot worse than 30% from the field is quite the opposite of a recipe for success.

One player who has found some sort of rhythm as of late is the third Kentucky transfer, Zvonimir Ivisic. After logging roughly 8.6 minutes per game over an eight-game stretch, Big Z has come alive over the last three games, averaging 10.3 points in 26 minutes per game and shooting 46% from the field, including 33% from deep.

Those aren’t necessarily eye-popping numbers, but they’re among the best on the team since SEC play started. Ivisic has become a vital spark plug on the offensive end of the ball while continuing to improve as a rebounder.

The 7-foot-2 sophomore is averaging 6.7 rebounds in his recent stretch of improved play after not grabbing more than six rebounds a single time in his first 16 games. This includes 1.3 offensive rebounds per game, an area that seemed to give Arkansas life in its win over Georgia.

His ability to stay on the court against Kentucky will be a storyline to watch as he attempts to keep up with perimeter shooters in screen action and in transition while Arkansas is trying to locate its defensive assignments. The Wildcats like to play extremely fast and get up a lot of shots in a hurry – something Ivisic isn’t necessarily great at defending.

What to Watch in Arkansas vs Kentucky

John Calipari said it best: the emotions are going to be high in this game. There’s a chance the outpouring of energy and emotion could cause the Wildcats to come out a bit anxious and stiff as well, though it’s perhaps more likely that they’ll feed off their home crowd’s energy.

Still, in its five losses this season, Kentucky has shot under 35% from long range compared to nearly 46% in its 15 wins. It is also the only team in the SEC averaging double-digit made 3-pointers per game.

However, the Wildcats average nearly 12 turnovers against SEC opponents and just under 13 turnovers in their five losses this season. The Hogs tend to play well when given transition opportunities. Perhaps a few live-ball steals could be exactly what Adou Thiero needs to get going.

The one stat that has been a constant barometer of success for the Razorbacks this season has been the rebounding battle. In games where they get outrebounded, they’re now 1-7 on the season compared to 11-1 when at least tying in the category.

If Arkansas can somehow find a way to limit the barrage of 3-pointers the Wildcats usually lay on their opponents, force a few extra turnovers and win the battle of the boards, it’ll put itself in good position to give the Wildcats a run for their money.

Game Prediction

Unfortunately, those are a lot of “ifs” to have a lot of confidence in the Hogs to go on the road and defeat one of the better offensive teams in the country.

Arkansas basketball is 14-36 all-time against the Wildcats, including a three-game losing streak in the series after putting together a three-game winning streak of its own from 2021-23. This includes two consecutive wins in Lexington for the Hogs before losing their most recent matchup in Rupp Arena 111-102 last March.

The Razorbacks will continue to search for answers offensively as they adapt to life without Boogie Fland. Their defense will give Kentucky fits at times, but their high volume of long-range bombs and infectious home crowd will likely be too much for the Hogs to handle on the road.

Kentucky, 82-74

How to Watch Arkansas vs Kentucky

Date: Saturday, Feb. 1

Location: Rupp Arena (Lexington, Ky.)

Tipoff Time/TV: 8 p.m. CT (ESPN)

ESPN BPI: Kentucky is favored to win by 9.4 points.

KenPom: Kentucky is favored to win 84-73.

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Arkansas basketball coach John Calipari previews his return to Rupp Arena:

YouTube video

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