John Calipari finally found his first signature win as the Head Hog last Tuesday night. His Razorbacks took down No. 14 Michigan in front of an Arkansas-heavy crowd in Madison Square Garden. The game saw 15-point leads for both teams before Arkansas squeaked out a 2-point win thanks to a few key defensive possessions.
While Arkansas played arguably its best stretch of basketball for the first 10 minutes of the second half against the Wolverines, its problems still persisted in the big victory. Jonas Aidoo is almost back to full health – and it showed with a big performance against Michigan’s twin-tower looks – but the Hogs were essentially without Billy Richmond (1 minute played) and saw Adou Thiero give everything he had for 22 minutes despite having the flu.
Arkansas’ depth and ability to field a fully healthy rotation continues to plague them, as Calipari is well-aware.
“There are no [gimme] wins,” Calipari said of the brutal upcoming SEC schedule. “I can go up and down the league… They’re telling me this is like SEC baseball now where it doesn’t matter who you play, you can lose. Top to bottom.”
Fortunately, the Razorbacks have one final opportunity to lean on their depth as their banged-up players recover over the course of the next three games – their final three before conference play starts with a trip to face No. 1 Tennessee on the road.
First is an in-state matchup against in-state foe UCA at Simmons Bank Arena in North Little Rock. The Bears are only 2-7 on the season. One of their wins came against non-DI Randall, and the other came against UNC Asheville in double overtime. They currently rank No. 334 out of 364 teams in KenPom, as well as No. 346 in the current NET Rankings.
Despite those poor rankings and metrics, this has all the key components of a trap game. The Hogs are one game removed from their biggest win of the season, on a “home” court that’s not their actual home court, and have a loaded SEC schedule rapidly approaching.
That goes before even considering some of the weirdness that comes along with North Little Rock games. From devastating upsets, nearly blown leads and frustrating injuries, there always seems to be an unnecessary storyline when the Hogs make the trip to the central part of their state.
Arkansas vs UCA will tipoff at 3 p.m. CT and will be streamed on SEC Network-Plus and ESPN-Plus.
What to Expect from UCA Basketball
A familiar face paces the Bears’ offensive attack. True freshman Layne Taylor became a local legend at Farmington High over the previous few seasons, scoring 61 points in a game as a sophomore and helping the program win more than 90% of its games including a trip to the state championship game last year.
Now, he’s one of the top-scoring freshmen in Division I basketball. The 5-foot-11 guard currently sits at 17.0 points to go along with 4.8 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game.
The most impressive – and dangerous – part of Taylor’s game is his long-range shooting ability. Not only is he hitting over 35% from distance, he’s also putting up nearly 10 three-point attempts per game. The northwest Arkansas native currently ranks No. 8 in the country in total threes attempted, and only one of the seven players ahead of him is averaging more attempts per game.
His long distance prowess opens up opportunities to drive into the teeth of the defense, as you can see in the clip below:
Taylor also has an impressive 2.21 assist-to-turnover ratio and leads his team with 2.1 steals per game. Of course, level of competition matters when considering raw stats, but the matchup between freshman phenoms in Taylor and Boogie Fland holds the potential to be must-see TV.
Two other players on UCA’s roster average double digits aside from Taylor, led by Elias Cato at 14.6 points per game. The 6-foot-8 freshman has started every game this season and pulls down 5.1 rebounds per game. He’s shooting 4.4 long-range attempts per game, though hitting them at only a 30% clip.
This is the most likely matchup for Adou Thiero (assuming he has recovered from his illness), and the versatile forward could take full advantage of Cato’s 2.2 turnovers per game to lead to fastbreak opportunities.
Brayden Fagbemi (6-foot-0) is the final Bear hovering in double-digit scoring at 11.7 points per game. He’s second on the team in 3-point attempts, but shoots below 23% from distance. Fagbemi is, however, a very well-rounded player. He averages 5.7 rebounds and 5.2 assists while also nabbing 1.6 steals per game. The sophomore guard is also the third player (along with Taylor and Cato) who has started each game for UCA this season.
Other players to have started a game for the Bears this season:
- Michael Evbagharu (6-4, Soph.) | 4 starts, 24 MPG, 7.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.1 SPG
- Diogo Seixas (6-8, Soph.) | 5 starts, 14.4 MPG, 0.9 PPG, 1.3 RPG
- Ubong Abasi Etim (6-9, Jr.) | 5 starts, 13.0 MPG, 2.9 PPG, 3.6 RPG
- Ben Fox (5-6, Fr.) | 3 starts, 15 MPG, 4.7 PPG, 1.9 RPG
- Nehemiah Turner (6-10, Fr.) | 1 start, 14 MPG, 4.6 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.2 APG
What to Expect from Arkansas Basketball
The Razorbacks’ recent win over Michigan was one of the wilder games you’ll see in the college landscape in terms of the momentum swings throughout the game. After going down 15 points in the first half, the Hogs exploded out of the break to take an 18-point lead. Then, of course, they almost forfeited that lead in the closing minutes.
When asked how to motivate his team to continue playing when they’re up (or down) by a large margin, Calipari noted that multiple players made plays against the Wolverines that embody the mentality necessary to keep fighting regardless of the score.
“The play where [Trevon Brazile] missed two free-throws, what’s he come back and do down the other end?” Calipari said. “He blocked the shot. That means he’s getting over himself and saying, ‘I’m here to win the game.’”
Brazile had arguably his most impactful game as a Hog in 26 minutes off the bench against Michigan. He tallied 15 points, 6 rebounds, 3 steals, 1 assist and 1 block while shooting 6 of 8 (75%) from the field and hitting a 3-pointer.
However, it’s important to note that Brazile shot only 2 of 6 from the charity stripe in this game and missed three out of four free throws in the closing seconds that could’ve closed out the game and not given the Wolverines one final chance.
Calipari also noted that Nelly Davis got beat backdoor on that final play, but made the extra effort to recover and make another game-altering defensive play.
“He was beat dead to rights,” Calipari said. “And what did he do? Instead of stopping, he fought, and he dove on the floor and tipped it with his right hand, and we win the game because of a play where he got beat. It was an effort play.”
Boogie Fland stuffed the stat sheet again at first glance with 20 points, 7 assists, 2 steals and a rebound, though he shot only 6 of 18 (33%) from the field and 2 of 7 (29%) from long range. He’s up against a dangerous offensive player in his next matchup against the Bears, but those guards should provide much less resistance defensively than some of the teams Fland has already seen this season with the Hogs.
Perhaps the two biggest game-changers for the Hogs in this game were Jonas Aidoo and DJ Wagner. Aidoo keeps getting healthier by the day and looked closer to his old SEC All-Defensive self against Michigan, recording 2 blocks and 2 steals to go along with his 11 points and 7 rebounds on 50% shooting.
His continued recovery, along with the new ankle injury to Zvonimir Ivisic, will be major storylines in the final few games before Arkansas begins SEC play. More on this later.
Wagner seemed to get to his spots at will against the Wolverines and fell into a rhythm Razorback fans hadn’t seen from him this season. The sophomore transfer went 2 of 3 from long range and hit a crafty step-back jumper with a toe on the line that was very close to counting towards his 3-point total.
“[Boogie] and DJ together, two pretty good guards, huh?” Calipari noted postgame. “Two pretty good guards, and DJ shooting floaters. He got to the rim some. Making threes… He’s like the best players I’ve had, how hard he works and what he does and how much time he spends in the gym. He can be playing bad and he can still talk to the team about winning.”
Wagner’s leadership has likely been an unsung hero for this team as it battles through injuries and puts all the pieces together early in the season.
What to Watch in Arkansas vs UCA
Every team deals with injuries, and no one is going to have pity for a team because of it, but the Hogs are certainly in a unique position with ailments this season. Not only do they have among the most roster turnover from last year in the entire country, but Calipari’s strategy of only bringing in nine rotation-worthy players puts further strain on the team when one – or often times two or three – players go down with injury.
“We got to get healthy,” Calipari said. “I mean, [against Michigan], Big Z was hurt, and he said, ‘I can do it,’ but you saw it there. He couldn’t move, but he made a three, helped us win the game. We had two guys with the flu (Adou Thiero and Billy Richmond), one of them played, and the other I played a minute, but there was no reason to play him.”
At another point of the press conference, Calipari seemed to advocate for his team to make the big dance even if they finished well under .500 in SEC play.
“Now you’re talking about top to bottom, someone’s going to win 7-8 games, they should get in the NCAA Tournament if they won at Miami and Michigan and played those other teams tough,” Calipari said. “They should get in. But it’s going to be one of those years.”
To reiterate, injuries cannot be considered a valid excuse come tournament time, but it’s interesting that Calipari is already laying the foundation for the selection committee to take note of what all his Hogs have battled through to get to 8-2 on the season.
“He is the first coach I can ever recall to start making his stump speech for the selection committee on December 10th,” said Gary Parrish of CBS Sports.
Arkansas has continually shown flashes of the team they can become, but they’ve still been unable to put their full-strength team on the court at the same time. While they can’t take any opponent lightly given the nature of college basketball, the Hogs have a prime opportunity over their next three games to lean into what little depth they have and get some of their banged-up players healthy heading into conference play.
Game Prediction
Despite the clear markings of a trap game – and whatever weirdness may or may not be related to the arena in North Little Rock – the Hogs are starting to gel. Their win over Michigan felt like a turning point even if they nearly gave up an 18-point lead late.
They dominated a legitimate top-20 team for roughly 15 minutes of action and finally have their starting center catching up to game speed. Two key energy players couldn’t bring the energy due to illness, but other veteran leaders stepped up in their place.
No question, some of the in-state guys on the UCA side will be extra motivated to show out against the Razorbacks. Layne Taylor, for instance, never got a scholarship offer from Arkansas but is finally going to have the full attention of the program and its fans. He recently said he looks up to Austin Reaves – another originally overlooked in-state product – and no doubt wants to turn heads in the same way.
Still, expect Arkansas to handle the Bears with relative ease, though there will always be runs in any basketball game that make one team look incompetent while the other looks elite.
Arkansas wins, 86-64.
How to Watch Arkansas vs UCA
Date: Saturday, Dec. 14
Tipoff Time/TV: 3 p.m. CT (SEC Network+ / ESPN+)
Location: Simmons Bank Arena (North Little Rock)
ESPN BPI: Arkansas is favored by 24.5 points, which is surer bet than the Boston Celtics winning the 2025 world championship according to the latest NBA odds
Addressing Arkansas’ Crowd Size
It’s worth monitoring how many folks show up for this game considering this is the first time Arkansas has played an in-state opponent in North Little Rock.
While it may be seem like that would be a recipe for a high turnout, Arkansas has mostly underwhelmed when it comes to in-state attendance so far this season. That was an issue even extending into the preseason during a tour of Hot Springs and Pine Bluff, but has become an even bigger question mark over the course of the last few weeks given the sparser-than-expected crowds at Bud Walton Arena.
However, there are a couple things the program could do:
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