Since Arkansas’ disappointing 72-67 loss to No. 8 Baylor last weekend, the script around the program has been all about the prospective ceiling of the undoubtedly talented Razorback roster, despite questionable early-season results.
On Wednesday night, glimmers of the shining potential of this roster shone through again, when Arkansas fans saw Zvonimir Ivisic become the first player in NCAA history to notch six 3s, five blocks and three steals in the same game.
Ivisic’s impressive performance has been accompanied by excellent starts to the season from Adou Thiero and Boogie Fland. Those players have fans wondering what this team could look like by the end of the season if all of this talent can gel.
While some college basketball fans may be skeptical of John Calipari’s ability to take this team all the way after early losses to Baylor officially and TCU in an exhibition, there is no doubt that the Naismith Hall of Famer knows how to get a team ready for the NCAA Tournament, regardless of early season results.
Calipari at Memphis, Kentucky
Even dating back to his days at Memphis, John Calipari’s teams have always challenged themselves early on, routinely playing two or three high-major opponents within the first five games of the season.
This year, for the sake of comparison, they are essentially off to a 3-2 start considering the quality of the two exhibition opponents in Kansas and TCU. Two of Calipari’s teams in the 21st century have also gotten off to such a start, as you can see here:
Memphis
| Season | Start | Final Record | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000-01 | 2-3 | 21-5 | Reached the NIT |
| 2001-02 | 3-2 | 27-9 | Won the NIT |
| 2002-03 | 4-1 | 23-7 | First round of NCAA Tourney |
| 2003-04 | 4-1 | 22-8 | Second round of NCAA Tourney |
| 2004-05 | 4-1 | 22-16 | Reached the NIT |
| 2005-06 | 4-1 | 33-4 | Elite Eight |
| 2006-07 | 4-1 | 33-4 | Elite Eight |
| 2007-08 | 5-0 | 38-2 | National runner-up |
| 2008-09 | 4-1 | 33-4 | Sweet 16 |
Kentucky
| Season | Start | Final Record | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-10 | 5-0 | 35-3 | Elite Eight |
| 2010-11 | 4-1 | 29-9 | Final Four |
| 2011-12 | 5-0 | 38-2 | National Champions |
| 2012-13 | 4-1 | 21-12 | First round of NCAA Tourney |
| 2013-14 | 4-1 | 29-11 | National runner-up |
| 2014-15 | 5-0 | 38-1 | Final Four |
| 2015-16 | 5-0 | 27-9 | Second round of NCAA Tourney |
| 2016-17 | 5-0 | 32-6 | Elite Eight |
| 2017-18 | 4-1 | 26-11 | Sweet 16 |
| 2018-19 | 4-1 | 30-7 | Sweet 16 |
| 2019-20 | 4-1 | 25-6 | COVID-19 |
| 2020-21 | 1-4 | 9-16 | Missed postseason |
| 2021-22 | 4-1 | 26-8 | First round of NCAA Tourney |
| 2022-23 | 3-2 | 22-12 | Second round of NCAA Tourney |
| 2023-24 | 4-1 | 23-10 | First round of NCAA Tourney |
In nine seasons under Calipari, Memphis went 34-11 in its first five games of the season, meaning the Tigers averaged a little over one early-season loss per year, often to highly-ranked opponents.
There is, of course, some correlation between how a team performs in the first few games of a season and where that team ends up come March. For instance, in 2020 the Calipari-led Wildcats stumbled out of the gate, starting the season 1-4. That stumble turned into a complete freefall though, and Kentucky missed the NCAA Tournament for the only time during his tenure.
Calipari’s consistent ability to snap up top-of-the-line freshmen talent means his teams at Kentucky and Memphis have often experienced early-season hiccups – more so than most other blue-blood programs, sometimes leading to early-season losses reminiscent to ones Arkansas has already experienced.
At Kentucky, Calipari went 61-14 during his 15-year tenure in the first five games of the season. In 2010, Cal’s second year there, the Wildcats got run out of the gym in an early contest against Gonzaga, but ended up in the Final Four and just one shot away from making the national championship game.
Similarly, in 2013, Kentucky lost to Michigan State in just its fifth game of the season, but once again found itself in the Final Four come April, coincidentally losing to UConn as they did in 2010.
Early season setbacks in 2017 (Kansas), 2018 (Duke) and 2022 (Michigan State & Gonzaga) all resulted in Kentucky eventually making it to at least the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
Recent Arkansas Basketball History
Arkansas fans should know better than almost anyone that their first impressions of a new Razorback team are rarely held up through the season.
Think back to just last season, when the Hogs took down Purdue in a charity exhibition, inciting high expectations from Arkansas fans for the season ahead. Even with a win over Duke in their eighth game, the Razorbacks went 16-17 and saw the departure of Eric Musselman, crushing the spirits of Razorback hopefuls. Two years ago, fans hit the panic button before the season even started after Texas ran Muss’s squad out of the gym in an exhibition. That same team would go on to lose to the eventual national champions, UConn, in the Sweet 16.
It’s clear early-season games have less importance in the long run than you might think, so don’t take any of the results from Arkansas’ first couple of matchups too seriously. When Texas beat up on the Hogs in their preseason matchup, integral players in Arkansas’ Sweet 16 run like Anthony Black and Ricky Council IV struggled mightily, combining for 7 points on 1 of 9 shooting.
Try to see the early struggles of an injured Jonas Aidoo and Johnell Davis in the same light. Sometimes it just takes time for guys to get in their groove. Eventually, Davis will no longer be shooting 15.4% from deep, and John Calipari will have his roster firing on all cylinders as he has done time and time again.
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See our preview of Arkansas’ next game here:
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