A recent win over in-state foe Central Arkansas has the Arkansas Razorbacks sitting at 9-2 so far in their first season under new head coach John Calipari. There have been plenty of storylines on the young season, including Calipari’s transition to an SEC foe, his new-found roster-building strategy, and a bevy of injuries that have plagued the Hogs as they attempt to put together a contending team from scratch.
But the biggest obstacle still in the Razorbacks’ way is just how strong the SEC is this season. In a typical college season, 10 NCAA Tournament bids from the same conference is considered an achievement worth noting.
ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi, however, is predicting a whopping 13 SEC teams to earn bids to the Big Dance.
Not only does this indicate how much firepower the newly dubbed “Best Conference in College Basketball” has, but it’s also a peek into just how much of a war every single night is going to be for every single team. There aren’t any teams that clearly stand out as relatively easy or “should-wins” so far.
As things currently stand – and of course, things can quickly change as the season progresses – Arkansas opens SEC play with six consecutive Quadrant 1 opportunities, beginning with a road trip to current AP No. 1 Tennessee and home games against No. 17 Ole Miss and No. 7 Florida.
Their first Quad 2 opportunity in conference play is a home game against No. 14 Oklahoma. There’s not a single Quad 3 or Quad 4 game on the Razorbacks’ SEC schedule currently.
With such a brutal SEC slate this season, the home crowd at Bud Walton Arena will be more important than ever – especially considering six of nine home games are currently considered Quad 1 opportunities.
“Every game we play is going to be a war,” Calipari said on ‘Live with Coach Cal’ on Tuesday night. “If we’re at home, our building has to be absolutely hopping and give us a 10-point advantage.”
“And even then, with a 10-point advantage, maybe [with] a buzzer beater we win… I’m just telling you, this is crazy.”
The Razorbacks are still trying to find their identity as a healthy team. Fortunately, because the SEC is so good from top to bottom, a few bumps in the road during conference play may not hold as much weight to the selection committee as they once did.
If Lunardi’s prediction holds true and a baker’s dozen SEC teams find their way into the NCAAT, at least one or two will probably do so with a losing conference record, likely sitting at 8-10 in the SEC. This is exactly the record that KenPom’s model predicts for Arkansas, landing them at 19-12 overall.
ESPN’s BPI has a similar prediction for the Hogs. They have Arkansas’ final season record over-under at 18.5-12.5 (7.5-10.5), thus planting the Hogs firmly on the bubble hoping for a bid come Selection Sunday.
Early Season Derailed by Injuries
The early non-conference slate has featured some unexpected twists and obstacles for the Hogs in their first season under Calipari. Of course, the long-time Kentucky coach’s mere presence is the first and most prominent abnormality to the season so far for Razorback fans hardwired to seeing him don the blue and white of the Wildcats.
It has been his roster strategy, however, that has caused the rollercoaster ride to start the season. For starters, his nine-man rotation policy has already backfired to an extent given the numerous injuries the Hogs have dealt with through the offseason and early portion of the non-conference slate.
Reports indicate that both of Calipari’s non-Kentucky transfers, Johnell “Nelly” Davis and Jonas Aidoo, missed much of the offseason with a wrist and leg injury, respectively. Both have been noticeably impacted by these injuries through limited minutes early – though both seem to finally have gotten their feet under them enough in recent weeks.
Even in their most recent game against Central Arkansas, Zvonimir Ivisic was still recovering from an ankle injury while Billy Richmond and Adou Thiero were battling their way back from undisclosed illnesses. Thiero managed to play through the ailment in the prior game against Michigan, though he did not appear in the Hogs’ in-state matchup in Simmons Bank Arena last Saturday.
“We might have to [reconsider],” Calipari admitted when asked about the limited-rotation strategy. “It may not work the way I planned. So, you know, eight or nine guys, everybody would be happy. You don’t have transfer problems, NIL issues… [If we have injuries] I’ll have six, seven guys playing. I didn’t plan on that all preseason.”
Despite all of this, Arkansas has managed to jump out to a 9-2 start through a non-conference slate with plenty of obstacles in the way. Their two losses came at the hands of Baylor and Illinois, each of which played like a top-15 team in their respective matchups while Arkansas struggled on both ends of the court.
Arkansas’ resume thus far includes wins over Miami – who is admittedly struggling to gain a foothold heading into ACC play – and a then-No. 14 Michigan squad who looked like a legitimate tournament team and gave the Hogs a good fight right down to the wire.
Arkansas On-Court Takeaways
One of the bigger takeaways from recent games has been the emergence of Jonas Aidoo as he recovers from injury. He played only 21 total minutes in Arkansas’ first three games this season before logging three straight DNP’s.
But in the last three games, the big man has played 26 minutes per game, tallying 10.7 points, 6.0 rebounds, as well as 2.0 blocks per game while shooting 57% from the field.
Standing at 6-foot-11 and weighing a sturdy 240 pounds, Aidoo adds an imposing element to the Hogs on both ends of the court when he’s healthy. Of course, his selection to the 2024 SEC All-Defensive Team is indication enough that he makes Arkansas a better defensive team, but his impact offensively should not be overlooked.
The team as a whole has been reliant on fastbreak opportunities and forcing its opponents to turn the ball over.
Aidoo’s presence makes it an easier task for Arkansas to score in half-court settings. Five of their top six scoring performances in terms of non-fastbreak points have come in their last five games – a stretch where Aidoo averaged 20.2 minutes per game, compared to the 3.5 MPG he played in the first six games.
Another takeaway for this Razorback team so far has been their reliance on true freshman point guard Boogie Fland. Embodying the definition of a freshman phenom, the New York City native has been Arkansas’ catalyst every time it takes the floor.
He’s currently averaging 15.5 points, 5.7 assists (ranks 30th nationally), 3.6 rebounds, 1.9 steals and only 2.0 turnovers per game while shooting 43% from the field, 40% from long range and 84% from the charity stripe. For good reason, is projected to be taken in the late lottery of the 2025 NBA Draft according to some of the latest NBA sportsbooks.
Fland’s weakness so far has been his ability to finish plays inside the 3-point arc. He’s shooting only 45% from inside the arc and has five games shooting worse than 40% this season.
Shooting woes are not uncommon for true freshmen, but that hasn’t prevented Fland from excelling in his lead-guard duties for the Hogs. His 2.86 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks in the top 50 nationally, including third amongst all freshmen behind only Duke’s Kon Knueppel and Utah State’s Jordy Barnes.
Fland has taken over the role of a true facilitator and point guard for the experienced Razorback squad as they battle to get fully healthy, and he’s done so about as well as anyone could’ve asked.
Other players have certainly made their fair share of noise for the Hogs this season as well, from Billy Richmond’s unexpected performances as a hustle and “glue” guy, to Davis and Aidoo slowly returning to form in front of fans’ eyes.
None have surprised quite as much as Adou Thiero, however. Many expected him to be a leader on this team with his experience playing under Calipari, but most people anticipated it to come in the form of defense, athleticism, and dirty-work plays. His 18.0 points per game (top 70 nationally) have come in a variety of ways, including off the dribble in the form of tough finishes at the rim and pull-up jump shots from midrange.
No one can deny the talent atop this Razorback roster. Depth and health concerns are certainly always present, but when fully healthy, Arkansas is a very good basketball team.
The issue: so is virtually every other SEC squad this season.
Hogs Have to Adapt to Survive for NCAA Tournament
The biggest issue plaguing the Hogs to this point in the season has been their ability to function in a half-court offensive setting. They’re at their very best when forcing their opponents into turnovers and running in transition.
Of course, the Razorbacks have shown flashes of half-court competence, but their sheer speed and athleticism on this roster makes them deadly in transition – especially when Trevon Brazile runs the center position against smaller lineups.
That’s all well and good against inferior opponents that are more likely to turn the ball over against an uber-athletic team like Arkansas, but how will that hold up in SEC play? That’s a question that will have to be answered on the court, but it’s worth looking at which other SEC teams also played at a blistering pace through non-conference play.
The chart below plots a team’s NET Rating (Offensive Rating – Defensive Rating) compared to their average pace of play (estimated possessions per 40 minutes), according to Sports Reference.
This chart is not an exact indicator of who is good and who is bad, but it certainly tells a story of how each team likes to play. The vertical line splits the teams evenly (eight on each side) based on pace of play, while the horizontal line does the same for NET Rating.
*Data accurate as of 12/16/2024.
It is worth noting that essentially every SEC team has a good NET Rating at this point in the season. They’ve all played plenty of lower-tiered opponents to boost these numbers so far while also looking competitive against virtually all high-major competition as well.
It’s also important to note that strength of schedule plays a big factor in this, which is not included in the Pace of Play or NET Ratings listed here. For now, it’s the data available for comparison at this point in the season.
The best place to be on this chart, in theory, is in one of the upper two quadrants as close to the middle line as possible. This would indicate that a team has a positive NET Rating while also being relatively neutral in pace of play.
Playing extremely fast or extremely slow doesn’t necessarily say that a team is good or bad, but it is a good indicator of how said team could match up with other teams. For example, if a team that plays at a blistering speed – like No. 6 Alabama – faces off against a slower-paced team – especially an experienced, defensive team with a quality point guard like No. 1 Tennessee – whichever team is able to impose their will on the pace of the game will likely win.
If this hypothetical matchup were to become a track meet of sorts, the Tide stand a great chance to pull off the upset, but if Tennessee were able to control the pace and play their brand of basketball, Alabama would likely struggle to adapt to the slower style compared to what they’re used to.
Tennessee, of course, is currently the top team in the country for a reason, so their distance from the median line on this graph should not be taken as concern for the Volunteers. On a similar note, Kentucky has also shown that they can impose their will on slower opponents and force up enough three-pointers to win big games.
Duke would land about a millimeter below Texas on the chart above, while Gonzaga would land somewhere between Georgia and Florida. The Wildcats were able to play enough of their brand of basketball against these relatively average (in terms of pace of play) teams to manage victories against both.
By comparison, Arkansas ranks as the third fastest team in the SEC, though they’re relatively close to the median compared to how fast Kentucky and Alabama have been playing. Still, they’re far enough to the right to be concerned about facing a slow-paced team.
Of course, Arkansas fans would likely tell you that regardless of this chart after watching this team through 11 games.
Even in games against relatively poor teams, so long as they have a solid assist-to-turnover ratio (like Lipscomb, Pacific, and Miami), the Hogs have struggled to get going offensively. Even if they end up winning by 15-plus points, not being able to get out and run in transition has hampered the Razorbacks early in contests.
Ten SEC teams currently rank in the top 100 in assist-to-turnover ratio. Six of those squads also fall into one of the upper quadrants of the chart above, landing them in the upper half of the SEC in NET Rating.
That’s already nearly half of the league that has the potential to cause the Hogs fits with their style of play – without even considering talent, size matchups, injuries, etc. That’s not to say Arkansas is a lock to lose every game they play against a team that’s able to slow the game down – especially now that Aidoo has started to change their dynamic on both ends of the court – but it’s certainly not the style of play they’ve leaned into for much of the early season.
The Razorbacks have two more non-conference opponents in North Carolina A&T and an Oakland squad that upset Calipari’s Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament last season. The Hogs will be heavily favored in both of those matchups – but then the SEC gauntlet begins after the turn of the calendar year.
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Next Arkansas Basketball Game
The Arkansas and North Carolina A&T programs share more crossover than you’d expect:
^ Razorback assistant coach Chuck Martin’s son – Jordan – is a junior on the NC A&T basketball team.
^ Landon Glasper is Fayetteville native and played at Fayetteville HS while Ronnie Brewer was on staff. Also, Ryan Forrest is from Marion and played with Glasper on an AAU team coached by Brewer.
^ Bruiser Flint and A&T head coach Monte Ross are both Philly natives and friends. Monte’s dad dated Bruiser’s mom when the two of them were young. Also, Bruiser’s sister and Monte’s wife are close friends
Source: Razorback Communications
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Inside Arkansas discusses the impact of Jonas Aidoo being fully healthy:
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