Arkansas suffered its most disappointing loss of the young season in a major Thanksgiving Day matchup against Illinois. After digging themselves an 11-0 deficit within the first five minutes, the Hogs were never able to mount a full comeback – though they did bring the score back to single digits a couple of times in the second half – and eventually fell to the Fighting Illini by a score of 90-77.
Tomislav Ivisic, twin brother of Razorback big man Zvonimir Ivisic, won the battle of the 7-foot-2 Croatians, tallying 21 points and 10 rebounds compared to Big Z’s 13 and 6 for the Hogs. The Illinois big man hit 6 of 9 from long range, leading the charge on a 15 of 31 team long-range shooting performance from the Fighting Illini.
The bigger issue, however, was the Hogs’ inability to guard ball-screen scenarios. Against Baylor earlier in the season, this resulted in open lobs to the rim. Illinois, on the other hand, had their big men picking-and-popping all game, leading to too many open looks from distance. Even if it’s not likely another team will again hit 15 threes on 48% shooting against the Hogs regardless of their defense, they certainly could have done more to contest a few of those makes.
Up next, the Hogs will get a chance to make some much-needed adjustments in the ACC/SEC Challenge against a Miami (Fla.) team that ranks in the top 100 in the country in 3-point percentage. The Hurricanes have gotten off to a rocky start to start their non-conference season, sitting at only 3-4 through their first seven games.
Miami has lost each of its last four games, the first three coming in neutral site settings to Drake, Oklahoma State and VCU, all of whom rank inside KenPom’s top 100. Their last loss, however, came at the hands of Charleston Southern (No. 288) at home – a truly devastating loss to a team with tournament hopes.
The result has been the Hurricanes debuting at No. 191 in the NET, making them the second-highest ranked Miami (the Ohio version is No. 146). That’s bad news for the Razorbacks because it means this is – and could very likely remain – a Quadrant 3 game.
What was expected to be one of four marquee non-conference opportunities for Arkansas is now as close to a must-win game as you can get in December. Sitting at No. 51 in the initial NET rankings, such a loss would be devastating to the Razorbacks’ resume.
What to Expect from Miami Basketball
Each of Miami’s six leading scorers are seniors, though only two were at Miami a season ago. Nijel Pack is one of the Hurricanes’ few key returners, and he’s easily their most important piece this season.
The 6-foot-0 guard is averaging 15.2 points and 4.7 assists while hitting over 44% of his long-range attempts. Perhaps the most impressive part of his game is his ability to score and orchestrate an offense with minimal turnovers. Pack currently boasts a 5.60 assist-to-turnover ratio, which ranks ninth nationally.
Pack missed the last game against Charleston Southern with a lower-body injury that was reportedly expected to keep him sidelined for multiple games, but he went through pregame warmups as a game time decision for the game against Arkansas and decided he was well enough to play.
Matthew Cleveland is the other returning senior for the Hurricanes, tallying 8.6 points and 4.4 rebounds in roughly 22 minutes per game this season. He’s a notable threat from long range as well, hitting 39% of his 3-pointers.
A trio of transfers makes up the majority of Miami’s scoring outside of Pack, with each averaging between 11.0 and 11.6 points on the young season. Jalen Blackmon (6-foot-3) from Stetson was a transfer to watch prior to Calipari’s arrival to The Hill, but he’s found a nice home in Miami averaging 11.6 points and 2.0 assist per game while hitting 39% of his 3-pointers.
Brandon Johnson (6-foot-8, East Carolina) and Lynn Kidd (6-foot-10, Virginia Tech) make up the Hurricanes’ front court and round out the high-scoring trio of transfers. They average 11.4 and 11.0 points, respectively, while leading the team in rebounding with 8.7 and 5.9 rebounds per game.
Jalil Bathea, a 6-foot-5 freshman, earned the start in Nijel Pack’s absence last game. He tallied only 6 points and 1 steal while missing both of his 3-point attempts in the contest. Instead, it was a different freshman – Austin Swartz – that picked up the slack for the Hurricanes. The 6-foot-4 guard contributed a career-high 15 points on 3 of 4 shooting from distance. This will likely be a highlighted name on the Razorbacks’ game plan.
What to Expect from Arkansas Basketball
While the defensive performance against Illinois could have certainly been better, it felt at times as though the Fighting Illini were going to make more long-range shots than usual regardless of how well defenders contested their shots. Several Illini shot above their average from distance, including Tomislav Ivisic.
However, Arkansas has now struggled to defend ball screens in each of their two games against high-major opponents, losing both contests. Razorback big man Jonas Aidoo is still getting healthy, but he’s not likely to be a magic cure to those issues if the scheme is playing a part in the struggles.
Adou Thiero continues to be simply amazing on both sides of the ball for the Razorbacks. He led the team with 26 points and 6 rebounds against the Illini, though he left several points on the table by going just 12 of 21 from the charity stripe. His 73% shooting from the free throw line this season is right in line with his career average.
Boogie Fland, on the other hand, had perhaps his biggest “freshman” type game of the season, shooting an extremely inefficient 17% from the field, including 0 of 3 from long range, after hitting 49% of his total shots and 48% of his 3-pointers prior to this contest.
There’s a chance that will be Fland’s worst game in what is expected to be his lone season as a Razorback and facing a Miami team not known for its defense and missing its starting point guard should provide a prime opportunity for the freshman phenom to bounce back.
Billy Richmond III, the lowest rated of the three Razorback freshmen, has quickly become impossible to keep off the bench due to his high energy and ability to get downhill as a slasher offensively. He played a career high in minutes against Illinois while scoring double digits for the second consecutive game.
Over his last two games, he’s averaging 13.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 0.5 assists while shooting nearly 71% from the field. However, he’s hitting only 40% of his free throw attempts and has missed both of his 3-pointers in that stretch. On the season, he’s shooting only 58% from the stripe and has yet to make a 3.
His energy on both sides of the ball, as well as his improvement as an overall scorer as the season progresses, will be a major key to watch as Arkansas continues to ramp up its level of competition.
What to Watch in Arkansas vs Miami
In wins this season, Arkansas is averaging 10.2 steals and 19.6 turnovers forced. On the other hand, the Hogs have notched only 6.0 steals and 9.5 turnovers forced in their two losses this season. Of course, the quality of opponent matters, but Miami is quickly turning into a team that Arkansas can’t afford to lose to.
Miami has fallen to No. 93 in KenPom’s rankings, but it is still in the top 25 in offensive efficiency and is No. 11 in turnovers committed per game, averaging only 9.3. Arkansas will either have to force the Hurricanes into a few mistakes or quickly learn to be a better half-court offense so it’s not quite as dependent on fast-break opportunities.
This task would have become more manageable without Nijel Pack on the other side of the ball, but his presence changes things for the Hogs. Arkansas ranks only No. 74 in offensive efficiency, and their poor performance against Illinois dropped them to No. 20 on the defensive side of the ball after spending a few days in the top 10 defensively.
This team is still very new to playing together, perhaps even more so than other teams with several transfers such as Miami due to the plethora of injuries they dealt with throughout the offseason to some of their major transfers such as Johnell Davis (wrist) and Jonas Aidoo (leg), preventing them from practicing and scrimmaging for a large portion of the offseason.
However, games like this are prime opportunities for Arkansas to show its talent and ability to adapt to mistakes made in recent games. Miami is clearly on a disappointing slide, but it is still a high-major team with plenty of offensive capability – very similar to Arkansas’ last opponent, an unranked Illinois squad that ranks in the top 20 in offensive efficiency, but not defensive efficiency.
Game Prediction
Arkansas is 0-1 all-time against Miami, losing the lone matchup in the first round of the 2000 NCAA Tournament 75-71 despite 27 combined points from Teddy Gipson and Joe Johnson.
Similar to that guard-forward duo, the current iteration of the Razorbacks will be led by Fland and Thiero as they look to avenge their predecessors from nearly 25 years ago. This time around, however, their efforts will be enough to make the difference.
Both players will have more efficient performances than their last outings, and they will be joined in double digits by a third Razorback, perhaps Johnell Davis who is still struggling to find his role and consistency offensively.
Ivisic and Richmond will both play big roles as well, and either could find themselves in the top three scorers for Arkansas in their first high-major win of the season.
Arkansas wins, 78-73
Another Recent Arkansas vs Miami (Fla.) Connection
The last Miami-Arkansas connection didn’t come in the form of a game, but rather a player who transferred from one program to the other. After suffering a season-ending injury two games into his fourth season at Miami, 5-foot-7 guard Chris Lykes brought his talents to Fayetteville in 2021. He wanted to learn from Eric Musselman and especially then-assistant Earl Boykins, who spent several years in the NBA despite being 5-foot-5.
As Lykes noted in a Tik Tok post back in September when recalling what happened during his time with the Hogs, Boykins left the staff soon after Lykes’ arrival in Arkansas. He was none too pleased with that development, nor what he perceived to be a lack of playing time at Arkansas. (He claimed his refusal to get a COVID vaccination played a role in this.)
Still, Lykes did end up playing in all 37 games and averaging 17.3 minutes. He was very up-and-down for the Razorbacks, putting up 7.6 points, 1.5 assists and 1.0 rebounds per game while having some big moments, including an 18-point performance in a win over LSU at the SEC Tournament.
Check out the full video here:
How to Watch Arkansas vs Miami
Date: Tuesday, Dec. 3
Location: Watsco Center (Miami, Fla.)
Tipoff Time/TV: 6 pm CT (ESPN2)
ESPN BPI: Miami has a 52.8% chance to win and is favored by 0.7 points
KenPom: Arkansas has a 61% chance to win, with a projected score of 78-75
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