For the first time since Nolan Richardson’s first season, Arkansas basketball is 0-5 in conference play.
Any road game is going to be a tall task to win in the SEC, but the Razorbacks did themselves no favors by allowing an 18-0 run in the opening minutes of what proved to be an 18-point win for Missouri on Saturday.
The last time Arkansas lost its first five conference games was 1985-86, when it was a member of the Southwest Conference. Richardson’s squad won its sixth game, beating Rice on the road, before finishing the season with a 12-16 record that included a 4-12 mark in the SWC.
As for the current team, John Calipari and Co. are growing increasingly desperate to find their first conference win. They’ll have another opportunity with a pair of home games this week, beginning with Georgia. That game is set to tip off at 8 p.m. CT Wednesday and will be televised on SEC Network.
While the Bulldogs are generally considered to be in the bottom half of the SEC this season, they’re still 14-4 overall and No. 26 in the NET rankings – 30 spots ahead of Arkansas.
At 2-3 in SEC play, Georgia is 11th in the conference standings, but it was dealt a tough hand to start out, facing four different teams in the top 15 of the NET within its first five games.
Arkansas faced a trio of top-15 teams in the NET – and another in the top 25 – to open SEC play, but has come up empty so far. The Bulldogs, though, managed to knock off Kentucky at home and also won their “easy” game against Oklahoma.
Their losses have been to Ole Miss, Tennessee and Auburn, with the latter two of those coming last week. That dropped Georgia from No. 23 in the AP Poll to the “receiving votes” section, so it will be hungry to get back on track against one of the weaker teams in the league – though perhaps not as hungry as Arkansas should be to finally earn an SEC win.
What to Expect from Georgia Basketball
Similar to Arkansas, Georgia is led by one of the top freshmen in the SEC this season: Asa Newell. The 6-foot-11 forward is the Bulldogs’ leading scorer (15.3 ppg) and rebounder (6.8 rpg). He’s capable of stepping out and hitting 3s, but more than 80% of his season points have come inside the arc.
The most dangerous part of Newell’s game that Jonas Aidoo and the other bigs will have to deal with is his offensive rebounding prowess. At 3.4 per game, he not only leads Georgia in offensive rebounding, he leads the entire SEC – narrowly beating out Vanderbilt’s Devin McGlockton.
Rebounding in general has been quite the Achilles heel for Arkansas all season. It is now 1-6 on the season when they lose the rebound battle, including their recent loss to Missouri – though they were outrebounded by only one. By contrast, the Hogs are 10-1 when they at least tie in the rebound column, with their only loss coming to Baylor early in the season.
The Bulldogs’ second leading rebounder is a former John Calipari recruit. Somto Cyril was committed to him at Kentucky and reportedly considered following him to Fayetteville, but ultimately signed with Georgia instead.
Now, the 6-foot-11 freshman is contributing 5.0 points and 4.7 rebounds per game in only 15.5 minutes. His energy and athleticism provide a spark for Georgia off the bench – the type of spark Arkansas occasionally gets from their freshman spark plug, Billy Richmond III, but seems to be lacking other times.
Senior Dakota Leffew (6-foot-5) is the team’s best long-range shooter at 38% from distance on 5.7 attempts per game despite coming off the bench in every game this season. He’s also averaging 11.8 points and 2.2 assists.
In Arkansas’ last game, it let Missouri sixth-man sharpshooter Caleb Grill get hot from distance early in the game and never recovered. Leffew has the potential to put together a similar run if the Hogs don’t contain him.
The final Bulldog averaging double figures this season is another 6-foot-5 versatile guard, Silas Demary Jr. In addition to his 11.7 points, he leads the team with 2.9 assists and grabs 4.3 rebounds per game. His 35.5% rate from distance is also second on the team.
Other notable players in Georgia’s rotation:
- Tyrin Lawrence (6-4, Sr) | 9.8 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.4 SPG
- Blue Cain (6-5, So) | 8.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.5 APG
- RJ Godfrey (6-7, Jr) | 6.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.1 APG
- De’Shayne Montgomery (6-4, So) | 8.8 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1.3 SPG
Boogie Fland Injury Update
With their season slipping away, the Razorbacks are approaching full-blown panic mode — and matters only got worse with the news of Boogie Fland dealing with a “pretty bad” hand injury since the Florida game, when it was stepped on.
John Calipari revealed the injury after Saturday’s loss at Missouri and seemed to indicate there was a real possibility he could miss time. That seems even more likely after comments made on his radio show Monday night:
In fact, just as he did earlier in the year with Jonas Aidoo, Calipari admitted he probably shouldn’t have played Fland against the Tigers.
The freshman insisted on playing, though, and toughed it out for 33 minutes. The result was his worst shooting performance of the season, as he shot just 2 of 13 (15.4%) from the field and missed all four of his 3-point attempts en route to a season-low 4 points.
While he did have six assists and four rebounds without recording a turnover, once again proving that he’s capable of facilitating at this level, Fland’s shooting slump – 28.2% in five SEC games – has been costly at times.
Assistant coach Chin Coleman met with reporters Tuesday afternoon and said Fland is “still doubtful” and they should “have something definitive later on in the week,” so it sounds like he’ll be included on the initial SEC availability report when it comes out Tuesday night.
What to Expect from Arkansas Basketball
If the Razorbacks are without Boogie Fland on Wednesday or for an extended period of time, the most logical fill-in for him at point guard is D.J. Wagner, as they’ve mostly shared those duties so far this season.
Now in his second year under John Calipari, the former five-star recruit has had stretches of elite 3-point shooting this year. He missed all four of his attempts against Missouri, though, which dropped his percentage in SEC play to a paltry 19.0%.
It’s possible that freshman wing Billy Richmond III could get a few more minutes at the guard spots, especially in a bigger lineup. In addition to the energy he brings to the floor, Calipari has been vocal about Richmond’s passing ability. Still, he’s a freshman with scant experience facilitating at this level, so don’t expect flawless playmaking – but he could help with Arkansas’ rebounding problem if he spends more time at the 2 and 3 rather than the 3 and 4 positions.
However, the player who stands to benefit the most from Fland’s potential absence is Johnell Davis. It could force the struggling FAU transfer into more on-ball action as a primary facilitator and ball handler – a role in which he excelled the last two years, making him a consensus top-3 portal prospect.
Plus, as Calipari noted on his radio show, there would be another 15 shots to go around if Fland doesn’t play and Davis was the first guy he mentioned as someone to fill the void.
“Who needs maybe three, four more shots of those 15 to get going?” Calipari asked the crowd at Sassy’s. “Nelly. He’s used to taking 17, 18 shots. When you’re taking 8, 9, 7, it’s a lot harder. So we need to get him maybe some more shots.”
After averaging 18.2 points and earning AAC co-Player of the Year honors as a true three-level scorer at FAU last season, Davis has mostly been used as a spot-up shooter and he doesn’t seem particularly comfortable in that role. Perhaps having the ball in his hands more is just what he needs to get going and show what he commanded an NIL deal worth “north of $1 million.”
Of course, it’s hard to overlook what the Hogs would be losing if Fland’s injury keeps him out. He’s been a great facilitator and playmaker all year, ranking second in the SEC at 5.7 assists per game – a number that also leads all freshmen in Division I.
Even as his scoring struggles amplified in SEC play, Fland’s assist-to-turnover ratio sits at an impressive 5.75 against conference opponents. That pace over the course of the season would land him comfortably at No. 1 in the country in this metric.
If he’s unavailable against the Bulldogs, Arkansas’ two veteran guards will have to improve their ball security. Wagner has struggled with turnovers at times, averaging 2.0 in nine games against high-major opponents, while Davis has seemingly lost his confidence with the ball in his hands.
Although his shot has improved some, including in a couple of big first halves against Ole Miss and LSU, Davis has committed eight turnovers in five SEC games despite not being a primary ball handler. He’s even dribbled the ball off his leg a couple of times, not to mention his mental lapses on defense. Those must improve if he’s going to take advantage of Fland’s potential absence.
As for the front court, Zvonimir “Big Z” Ivisic had his best game in weeks against the Tigers, and it couldn’t come at a better time, as Arkansas is still searching for ways to pull out a win. He played just under 30 minutes at Missouri, which is more than he had in the first four SEC games combined, and tallied 14 points – his most since before Thanksgiving – with a career-high 10 rebounds while hitting 67% from the field and 40% from long range.
“We’ve seen him have signs and show signs and have moments, and have some times where he’s able to play phenomenal, but we need to see him be more consistent,” assistant coach Chin Coleman said. “Our team needs Z, and he brings such a different dynamic to the game – the shot blocking, the ability to shoot the ball. We need for Z to be Z, so we’re going to ask that he shows some level of consistency for us from here on out.”
If Big Z has truly found a bit of his rhythm, it could work wonders for the Razorbacks fighting to save their season. The Bulldogs are not an elite rebounding team, especially compared to some of the other SEC teams Arkansas has faced, but they have a pair of more-than-capable board chasers who could cause the Hogs fits. Ivisic could help keep them in check alongside Aidoo if he’s able to stay on the court.
What to Watch in Arkansas vs Georgia
Along with being a decent rebounding team with a pair of bruisers in the paint, Georgia is one of the better shot-blocking teams in the country. The Bulldogs rank ninth nationally with 5.6 blocks per game, including 4.6 against some of the best teams the SEC has to offer.
Asa Newell by himself is one of the better freshmen defenders in the country, averaging 1.1 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. It’s a notable feat to average more than one of each stat in today’s college game, but to do so as a freshman is especially noteworthy. Only four other high-major freshmen are doing that – a list that includes projected top-3 picks Cooper Flagg (Duke) and Ace Bailey (Rutgers).
Arkansas, on the other hand, has been exceptionally good at not getting its shots blocked throughout the season. Only against LSU, when the Tigers stifled the Hogs at the rim with 11 total blocks, have the Hogs been blocked more than five times in a game – which is roughly how many blocks the Bulldogs average. Part of that could be attributed to the lack of aggressiveness from guards like Fland and Davis when it comes to taking it to the rack.
The Razorbacks found success against Missouri by getting the ball into the paint and in the high post to get easier looks for their forwards like Adou Thiero, Zvonimir Ivisic, Jonas Aidoo and Trevon Brazile. This interior matchup between the Hogs and Bulldogs could go a long way in determining the final result.
Game Prediction
The Hogs are 27-17 all-time against the Bulldogs, including winning seven straight in Fayetteville. Each of the four losses Georgia has suffered this season come against teams ranking equal to or worse than Arkansas in NET Rankings and each of KenPom’s offensive and defensive metrics.
Perhaps that’s why the Razorbacks are a slight favorite to finally break through in SEC play, as they are favored by both KenPom and ESPN’s Basketball Power Index.
Arkansas is beyond the need to only change X’s and O’s, but it’ll now (likely) need to figure out how to manage life without Boogie Fland for a while. Even if their freshman leader is available, he’s clearly hampered by the hand injury and will be limited as a shooter if the Missouri game is any indication.
The Hogs have no other choice than to string together a few wins to get their season back on track, and being back on their home court – albeit in front of a likely antsy crowd – is a great opportunity to get a couple wins in a row, starting with Georgia.
Arkansas 77-72.
How to Watch Arkansas vs Georgia
Date: Wednesday, Jan. 22
Location: Bud Walton Arena (Fayetteville, Ark.)
Tipoff Time/TV: 8 p.m. CT (SEC Network)
ESPN BPI: Arkansas is favored to win by 0.9 points.
KenPom: Arkansas is favored to win 70-68.
Line: Arkansas is favored by 1.5 points according to sports books using promo code Ice Casino
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Assistant coach Chin Coleman discusses the upcoming Arkansas vs Georgia matchup:
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More on Arkansas basketball:
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