Welcome to the State of Arkansas, where a calendar flip to December changes the state’s sports focus. Few places in the country are like the Natural State when it comes to change. Few state flagship schools have basketball programs that are far superior to their football team. It’s been the case with the Razorbacks for the better part of the last 30 years.
Only, nowadays, in a world of perpetual doom and damnation, the focus is hardly excitement. Arkansas basketball entered the season with solid, clear NCAA Tournament expectations and most outsiders thought the Hogs could challenge for another Sweet 16, or even Elite Eight, run, like they did in the heyday of Eric Musselman’s tenure. Some of the most fool-headed locals said the Sweet 16 was a minimum with new coach John Calipari, given his resume and the roster he assembled in his first year in Fayetteville.
And while the smart money says Arkansas makes the NCAA Tournament, heading into the final month before Southeastern Conference play, it isn’t wise to lay a heavy bet on the Hogs doing much more than that.
If they make it at all.
Arkansas’ 76-73 win over Miami (Fla.) was not required in the sense that it saved the Hogs’ tourney chances. Nor was it required in that it provided a massive resume boost for the Razorbacks. The SEC rolled over the ACC, 14 wins to two, in the second annual SEC-ACC Challenge.
The quality of Miami basketball has dipped since making the Final Four two years ago. The Hurricanes have lost five straight after the defeat, including to Charleston Southern, Virginia Commonwealth and Drake. Not exactly a murderer’s row. Yet the Hurricanes led for more than 36 minutes of the game Tuesday. Arkansas trailed with 2:25 left before Boogie Fland hit two free throws to tie the game, a 3-pointer to provide the lead and a jumper to counter Miami’s bucket late.
Arkansas’ Future is the Key
Combine the less-than-inspiring win against a mediocre – perhaps even poor – major-conference team with losses to quality teams in Illinois and Baylor, the Hogs are still looking for that marquee, or even slightly impressive, victory. They’ll get a final chance against Michigan on Dec. 10. After that, only SEC teams remain to build a case, teams that look better than Arkansas right now, regardless, and already carry signature out-of-league wins: Kentucky beat Duke, OU beat Arizona, Tennessee beat Baylor.
Don’t let Auburn’s loss to fellow big dog Duke mislead you. The Tigers and Tennessee remain the class of the best league in the land and Final Four contenders. Kentucky, Alabama and Florida are NCAA-top-five-seed types. Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Texas, Mississippi State and Ole Miss all appear to be firm “ins” a month into the season. Arkansas stands with Georgia, and perhaps LSU, as a bubble team. The rest of the SEC looks like the bottom tier. Those thoughts are independent of where ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has things in Bracketology.
We start there because it gives us an idea of what the Hogs need to do during conference play to move off the bubble and into the Dance, which should be the minimum standard of Arkansas basketball with Calipari as coach and with the roster make-up the Razorbacks currently have. These aren’t Stan Heath’s, John Pelphrey’s or even Mike Anderson’s Hogs. Several future NBA players dot the current Arkansas roster. Boogie Fland is an almost-guaranteed one-and-done lottery pick. Anyway, this is the Arkansas SEC schedule.
The Arkansas Basketball Path
January
- at Tennessee
- vs Ole Miss
- vs Florida
- at LSU
- at Missouri
- vs Georgia
- vs Oklahoma
February
- at Kentucky
- at Texas
- vs Alabama
- vs LSU
- at A&M
- at Auburn
- vs Missouri
- vs Texas
March
- vs South Carolina
- at Vanderbilt
- vs Mississippi State
Optimistically, what, 11 league wins? Pessimistically, five wins. Realistically, a 9-9 season seems about right.
That would yield a .500 league record in the best basketball conference in the country. Incidentally, Arkansas has five above .500, four under and one at that mark over the last 10 years. Such a record this year is not terrible, certainly, but is it really worthy of an NCAA Tournament bid? Last year, LSU went 9-9 in league play and didn’t make it. Granted, the Tigers were only one game above .500 overall. Mississippi State, on the other hand, was 8-10 and did go Dancing. In 2023, Arkansas and Mississippi State each finished 8-10 in league play and went (the Hogs went to the Sweet 16 for a third straight year) while Florida, which finished 9-9, did not.
The Bottom Line
Arkansas without an impressive major-conference victory outside of a 9-9 SEC league record would be unlikely to get the benefit of the doubt. Maybe Miami improves and impresses in the ACC. About the only way to see the Hogs Dancing otherwise, with that record, is if the committee chooses the Hogs on the basis of Calipari. Perhaps his legacy would be enough of a pull to get the Hogs in over, say, a Boise State or a Xavier or some other mid-major line-dweller.
If you’re thinking it’s way too early in the season to think about these things, well, you’re wrong. It’s only moderately too early to think about these things. And a month into the year, Arkansas hasn’t shown any significant improvement. It was always going to take time for the players to find each others’ styles and grooves and for them to coalesce in Calipari’s system. But that’s just college basketball now. Not a ton returns to any college program in the country; it’s hardly exclusive to Arkansas and is therefore not an excuse. Or a reason, for that matter.
The truth is Arkansas must play better basketball to ensure an NCAA Tournament season. That’s not a tall order considering Johnell Davis and Jonas Aidoo, two projected leaders this season, are only now rounding into form coming off injuries. This isn’t to say the Hogs’ program is in dire straits if someone they fail to make March Marchness coming of the nation’s top basketball league. It’s just that, in the wild world of college hoops now, is disappointment really something a program can handle in consecutive years? Maybe.
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Calipari knows improvement is required:
It’s impossible to envision Fland sticking around Fayetteville for another year.
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