Kentucky and Arkansas basketball fans have been borderline obsessed with each other since John Calipari sent shockwaves through the college basketball world by leaving the former for the latter in April.
That seismic move means the Feb. 1 showdown between the two schools at Rupp Arena is likely the most anticipated game of the regular season for the entire sport. Now barely two weeks into the season, the Razorbacks and Wildcats finally have a common datapoint: Lipscomb.
Arkansas opened the season with a tough 76-60 win over the Bisons, while Kentucky crushed the Nashville-based school 97-68 on Tuesday.
So what did we learn about that Arkansas vs Kentucky matchup that’s still more than two months away? Let’s dive in…
What it All Means
Simply put, the new-look Kentucky Wildcats can shoot the cover off the ball, and they did just that against Lipscomb. They have a plethora of capable shooters and an offensive philosophy that creates plenty of good looks for them.
Guards Lamont Butler and Kerr Kriisa do a fine enough job of penetrating and creating opportunities for others, but it’s the entire team’s unselfish mentality that truly makes them a dangerous offensive team.
“That’s the best offensive Power Four team we’ve played against in my six years at Lipscomb,” Bisons head coach Lennie Acuff said of Kentucky after their recent matchup. He noted that he was tremendously impressed by Mark Pope’s squad and that they would be a “tough, tough, tough out” come tournament time – as well as stating that they’re an “underrated” defensive team.
This is lofty praise from Acuff, and a significant point of interest for Arkansas fans given how recently the Bisons also played the Razorbacks.
Of course, transitive results against common opponents are rarely perfect indicators of how teams who have never played each other would match up, but it can be a decent enough indicator of talent level and both offensive and defensive capabilities.
In its rout of Lipscomb, Kentucky put on a clinic on both sides of the ball that showed what a game is supposed to look like against a mid-major opponent – even a relatively good one. Simply looking at the final score of each game Arkansas has played against mid-major opponents would indicate that they’ve done a fine job of their own, but the full story shows some struggles throughout each game that kept their opponents alive longer than they should’ve been.
It’s worth noting that Arkansas is dealing with injuries to several key players and was actually without both Trevon Brazile and Jonas Aidoo in its most recent contest. A lingering wrist injury to Johnell Davis that limited him through summer practices is clearly still affecting his jump shot and confidence offensively, as well.
These are not excuses, but important context as to why Arkansas has looked shaky at times throughout the young season, as well as potentially a sign of hope if the Hogs are able to get healthier in the coming weeks.
Analyzing Kentucky Basketball
No one on the Wildcats’ squad is really considered a strong isolation scorer, or even necessarily someone who can consistently break down defenders off the dribble, but they don’t need to be with how well the entire team moves without the ball – largely thanks to Mark Pope’s philosophy – and how everyone is ready and willing to make the extra pass.
Even if the Wildcats have an uncharacteristically off-night from beyond the arc, their volume of 3-point shots is so high that it may not even matter unless they’re facing another elite offensive team. They rank in the top 30 in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric and average 27.5 long-range attempts per game, nearly seven more than the Hogs and outpacing over any teams found on the free roulette payout and odds calculator.
The Wildcats have shown they’re no joke on the other side of the ball either. They have plenty of capable 1-on-1 defenders including Butler, Otega Oweh and Amari Williams. As a team, Kentucky ranks No. 10 in the country in opponent 3-point percentage, allowing teams to shoot only 23% on the season – including holding Duke to only 4 of 21 (17%) from deep.
The Blue Devils have hit at least 38% from distance as a team in each of their other three games this season. For those that caught any of the Duke or Lipscomb game, it’s worth noting that both teams missed some open looks that could’ve easily been converted – but that still requires some credit to Kentucky for taking their opponents out of rhythm and affecting their confidence as shooters.
Looking Ahead to Arkansas vs Kentucky
This would obviously be a cause for concern against an Arkansas team that has struggled to shoot the ball consistently in their first few games – though it has hit 19 of their 44 (43%) attempts over the last two games. Arkansas’ Zvonimir Ivisic, Boogie Fland and Adou Thiero specifically are shooting a combined 56% (19 of 34) from long range over their last three games.
However, even if Kentucky were to limit the Hogs from long range in their matchup, it might not be a deal-breaker for Arkansas as they’ve already experienced how to stay in games despite some poor shooting performances. They defeated the same Lipscomb team that Kentucky just manhandled by double digits despite shooting only 21% from long range and 57% from the charity stripe.
It was the Hogs’ defense, physicality and athleticism that ultimately prevailed in that season-opener, and those same things sparked several runs against Baylor, Troy and Pacific in Arkansas’ recent games. The Razorbacks’ best chance at defeating the Wildcats likely comes in their defensive ability, potentially limiting the amount of open looks Kentucky gets despite their high-level ball movement.
Kentucky’s solid 3-point defense of their own so far this season has also allowed them plenty of opportunities to beat the defense down the court with long outlet passes and shooters running to both wings. Shooting several quick, fastbreak 3s per game – even if it’s not always at an elite percentage – allows the Wildcats to get even more possessions with their high-powered offense. On nights where their shots are falling at an above average rate, the offense will be hard to keep up with.
The real question for the Wildcats will be how well they can handle quick ball handlers defensively. Butler has made some impressive defensive plays, especially against Duke, but can Kentucky as a whole handle a ball handler and shifty guard like Boogie Fland? Or a pair of stronger guards like DJ Wagner and Johnell Davis, provided both are healthy?
These questions could be a determining factor in the Arkansas vs Kentucky matchup on Feb. 1, 2025.
Arkansas vs Kentucky Stat Comparison
***
Arkansas vs Kentucky Just Means More
Back in the summer, Calipari turned a lot of heads with his comment that Arkansas was still going to be “Calipari University,” he was just “changing headquarters.” That sparked an ongoing debate within this larger feud over who played a larger part in Kentucky’s success and prominence over the last 15 years: UK’s status as a blue blood or Calipari’s recruiting ability and brand-building?
The answer so far has been a completely mixed bag.
More here:
Mike Irwin gets the issue of lower attendance at Hog games here:
Check out highlights of both Arkansas and Kentucky in their wins over Lipscomb:
***
More coverage of Arkansas basketball from BoAS…
