Arkansas remained winless in SEC play with a loss to Florida on Saturday, dropping to 0-3 for the second straight season. Last year turned ugly fast, as the Razorbacks experienced all sorts of dysfunction that ultimately resulted in a sub-.500 record and no postseason.
That sort of season was the last thing on Arkansas basketball fans’ minds when John Calipari was hired, though. There are still more than enough opportunities for the Razorbacks to avoid a repeat of last season, but they can’t afford to keep dropping games at home or losing to teams ranked relatively low compared to the rest of the SEC.
Perhaps the biggest issue for the Razorbacks in the most recent loss was their inability to finish at the rim. According to the official UA stat broadcast, Arkansas finished the game 8 of 22 at the rim, including only 2 of 16 on layups.
At some point, this anomaly goes beyond any sort of talent level. This was a strange combination of lack of focus, decent defense from the Gators and perhaps a lack of confidence from the Razorbacks. Many Hogs look like they’re sometimes still not sure of their role or always where they’re supposed to be offensively, and when a player second guesses every single motion they make, even the simple things like layups become difficult.
The result has been Arkansas competing for the title of “Most Disappointing Team” for a second year in a row. In fact, at the midway point of the season, college basketball analyst Matt Norlander gave the Razorbacks a slight edge over Rutgers – and its pair of top-3 recruits – in that category during Sunday’s episode of CBS Sports’ Eye on College Basketball podcast.
“I think it’s fair to, right now, say that Arkansas is a bigger disappointment than Rutgers because Arkansas had preseason top-25 recognition,” Norlander said. “John Calipari, everything heralded coming with that, some high-profile transfer gets and…while very few I think were putting them in the category of a Final Four contender, (they were) certainly expected to be a team that would compete in the SEC, wear home whites in the first round of the NCAA tournament and make a nice transition after a letdown of a goodbye season for Eric Musselman. Now that’s not even close to the case.”
Last year, the Razorbacks “battled” for that title with Miami (Fla.), which was ranked just ahead of Arkansas in the preseason AP Poll and finished with a nearly identical sub-.500 record. The Hurricanes aren’t in contention this year, even with an ugly 4-12 record, because not much was expected of them – which makes this potential feat so rare.
Typically, a team can’t be the “most disappointing” in back-to-back years because a poor showing usually means lower expectations the following season. The one exception is when there’s a coaching change – especially one that involves a Hall of Famer.
Fortunately for Arkansas, the schedule lightens up – albeit slightly – for the rest of the month. There’s not a single game in this SEC schedule that can be considered easy, but the next four games for Arkansas come against teams with an average KenPom ranking of 47.5 and average NET Ranking of 44.5, whereas the first three teams the Hogs faced averaged 11.7 and 12.0, respectively, in those two metrics.
This “easier” stretch of the schedule starts with a road game against LSU in a game by which Arkansas is favored by 1.5 points. The Tigers, just like the Hogs, are 11-5 on the season and 0-3 in SEC play. The difference, though, is the strength of schedule so far between the two teams.
While Arkansas has been slammed by both Tennessee and Florida, two top-ten teams, LSU now has losses to Vanderbilt, Georgia and Missouri – none of which rank inside the top 20 on either KenPom or in the NET.
The matchup between the two winless SEC squads is set to tipoff at 8 p.m. CT Tuesday in Baton Rouge, La. The game will be televised on SEC Network.
What to Expect from LSU Basketball
The Tigers are led offensively by a quartet of guards, including three seniors.
Camryn Carter is the top scorer with 17.1 points to go along with 4.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.6 steals per game. The 6-foot-3 senior is also a notable threat from long range, hitting nearly 40% of his 6.3 attempts per game.
Jordan Sears – a 5-foot-11 senior – also hits at a respectable rate from distance, making 35% of his 6.4 attempts per game. He backs up Carter as the Tigers’ second-leading scorer with 13.8 points and 2.6 assists per game – though both lead guards have issues with turnovers at 2.4 each per game.
As a team, though, the Tigers are not a good 3-point shooting team, hitting only 32% from long range. They actually rank below Arkansas, even after the Hogs’ abysmal shooting to start SEC play.
When Arkansas allows a team to shoot 32% or better from distance, it is 3-3 this season. That means when teams are below the 32% mark, the Hogs are 8-2 – their only losses coming to Baylor and Florida.
Carter and Sears have been the only consistent threats from distance, so limiting their 3-point opportunities could be a major key to winning for the Hogs. Expect a heavy dose of DJ Wagner and Boogie Fland guarding this high-scoring duo.
The other two guards at the top of the lineup for LSU are freshman Vyctorius Miller (6-foot-5, fantastic name) and senior Dji Bailey (6-foot-5). Miller sits at 10.1 points and 2.8 rebounds per game, while Bailey contributes 9.7 points, 4.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game.
Neither are necessarily consistent shooters, but Miller has been hitting nearly 48% from long range over his last six games. Definitely not a player Arkansas can lose track of defensively.
Jalen Reed – a 6-foot-10 junior forward who has played four games against the Hogs prior to this season – would’ve been another player to watch in this matchup if the Tigers had not lost him to a season-ending knee injury in early December. He was averaging 11.1 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. Since his injury, the Tigers are averaging 3.8 fewer rebounds as a team.
However, after recent rebounding woes against both Florida and Tennessee, the Hogs still need to make a conscious effort on the glass. Daimion Collins (6-foot-9) and Corey Chest (6-foot-8) average 2.4 and 2.6 offensive rebounds, respectively. Chest leads the team in total rebounds with 7.2 per game, though he has only eight total rebounds through three SEC games.
What to Expect from Arkansas Basketball
The Hogs have yet to score 70 points against an SEC opponent this season. Their highest scoring output was 66 points against Ole Miss – the lowest ranked defense of the three SEC squads they’ve faced so far.
Against Florida, the game plan for Arkansas actually worked decently well. It played quality defense before the first shot attempt on each Florida possession, but the No. 1 rebounding team in the country generated enough second-chance opportunities to pull away late against the Hogs.
However, Arkansas was only outrebounded by 10 total rebounds, including allowing only one more offensive rebound than they grabbed for themselves. This was not an old-fashioned manhandling the way the Tennessee game panned out.
The bigger issue was Arkansas’ ability to make shots. In addition to their terrible rim finishing, the Hogs also missed 11 free throws and shot only 19% from 3-point range. Sure, some of that can be attributed to Florida’s defense, but there should be very few defenses capable of holding the Hogs to sub-20% on their home court – and Florida shouldn’t be one of them.
The lack of scoring has become as much mental as anything else for the Hogs, and that mental lapse starts with Johnell Davis. In the loss against Florida, the top-ranked transfer rumored to be making “upwards” of $1 million shot 0 of 8 from the field, including 0 of 5 from long range, in his 20 minutes of action.
Coming into the season, many believed Davis was the favorite to lead the Hogs in scoring this season or at least be a primary focal point offensively. And after he averaged nearly 20 points on 40% shooting from long range a season ago, why shouldn’t they expect as much?
Davis missed the final two non-conference games to rest his injured shooting wrist that kept him out of several weeks’ worth of practices this offseason. Since he’s come back, he’s been held scoreless twice in three SEC games.
In the Ole Miss game, Davis appeared to find his footing, hitting 3 of 7 from deep and finishing with 15 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist and no turnovers. The momentum was not captured, however, as Davis turned in his worst performance of the season against Florida.
Benching a player entirely could absolutely ruin his confidence, but Davis doesn’t seem to have any confidence as it currently stands anyways. Something needs to change if Arkansas wants to give itself a shot at the postseason, whether that be Davis finding some rhythm or finding himself on the bench more often replaced by Karter Knox or Billy Richmond.
Of course, Davis isn’t the only issue the Hogs are having, but he’s the most notable considering his preseason expectations compared to his abysmal output over the last few games. Boogie Fland has also struggled to score efficiently, the Razorback bigs are not where they need to be as a rebounding unit and the team is still among the worst at drawing free throws.
Opportunities are abundant for the Hogs, but it’s going to take all nine of their rotation players stepping up into their roles along with major mental changes to take full advantage of them.
What to Watch in Arkansas vs LSU
The Tigers average the most turnovers in the SEC and rank just outside the bottom 50 nationally with 13.6 turnovers committed per game. This can sometimes be a side effect of teams that play too fast, but LSU plays with a very similar pace as Arkansas, which averages significantly less turnovers at 11.6 per game.
The Hogs play fast relative to the rest of the SEC, though they rank No. 99 in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. LSU ranks No. 137, for reference.
Still, Arkansas has proven to be at its best when it’s able to force opponents into turnovers and get out in transition. Players like Trevon Brazile and Adou Thiero can often outrun their matchups and rise above defenders on the break, while players like DJ Wagner and Boogie Fland thrive in a little bit of up-tempo chaos.
LSU has two primary guards – Carter and Sears – who lead the team in scoring and average 2.6 assists apiece, but both also turn the ball over 2.4 times per game. For reference, the Hogs’ two primary ballhandlers in Wagner and Fland combine to average 3.5 total turnovers per game. Perhaps Davis could even find himself a few open transition buckets to get some rhythm back as well.
Having one guard that is turnover prone can perhaps be overcome, but when both leading scorers are notably high turnover players like LSU’s are, it can be detrimental for a team.
When Arkansas forces at least nine turnovers this season, it is 10-3 with the losses coming to Illinois, Tennessee and Florida – though those three teams averaged only 11.3 turnovers against the Hogs.
On the flip side, when the Hogs force less than nine turnovers, they’re 1-2 with their lone win coming against UCA. The other two losses came against Baylor and Ole Miss – both games where it felt as though Arkansas could have won if it had done a few small things better, compared to a game like Tennessee, in which the Hogs looked outmatched.
Game Prediction
The Razorbacks are 43-46 all-time against the Tigers. This includes winning five of the last seven matchups, though it was January of 2022 the last time Arkansas won in Baton Rouge. JD Notae’s 19 points and Jaylin Williams’ double-double led the Hogs to victory that day.
After the Ole Miss loss, a game the Hogs certainly needed to win on their home court, Arkansas is quickly running out of winnable games that they can afford to lose. The loss to the Rebels already put them a bit behind schedule for the eight SEC wins they likely need to have a good shot at an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
LSU is certainly a team the Razorbacks can beat, regardless of location. The Tigers don’t rank highly in many metrics and don’t stand out as a statistical outlier the way Florida did on the boards or Tennessee did with its grind-it-out pace of play. The Hogs must capitalize on opportunities like this.
There will be a sense of urgency for the Razorbacks as they look to capture their first SEC win of the season. The players are undoubtedly starting to feel more of the pressure mounting on their shoulders with each loss, understanding what it means with the difficult schedule still in front of them.
The leaders of this team will push the Hogs to a victory in Baton Rouge, getting the team back on track in the win column as they already begin their battle for the postseason in mid-January.
Arkansas wins, 71-64.
How to Watch Arkansas vs LSU
Date: Tuesday, Jan. 14
Location: Pete Maravich Assembly Center (Baton Rouge, La.)
Tipoff Time/TV: 8 p.m. CT (SEC Network)
ESPN BPI: LSU is favored to win by 2.2 points.
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Oh What Could Have Been….
Below is a look at which former Razorback players could help correct the flaws on Calipari’s team in a universe where Arkansas’ roster wasn’t almost gutted wholesale – ranked from most to least impactful.
Catch up with Layden Blocker, Tramon Mark, Khalif Battle, Joseph Pinion and more:
Watch the complete discussion between Gary Parrish and Matt Norlander about this year’s Arkansas basketball team:
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More coverage of Arkansas basketball from BoAS…