They may be on life support, but Arkansas basketball’s NCAA Tournament hopes at least showed a pulse Wednesday night.
After flat-lining for five straight games, the Razorbacks snapped their skid and picked up their first SEC win of the season by beating Georgia 68-65 inside Bud Walton Arena.
Making the victory even sweeter was the fact that Arkansas had to erase a 15-point deficit and did so without arguably its most talented player in Boogie Fland. It also seemed to finally discover its identity.
That is perhaps the most important aspect of the win, as the Razorbacks now know they are capable of beating an SEC team if they make things “ugly” — play great defense, rebound the heck out of the basketball and get to the free throw line. Those areas had been lacking during their historic 0-5 start.
The value of just getting over the hump and winning a game shouldn’t be overlooked, either.
“It’s hard when you’re not winning to get in that mindset that we’re fine,” Arkansas basketball coach John Calipari said afterward. “If you’ve won five games, you’re looking at each other (and saying), ‘We’ll be fine, we’re coming back and beating them.’ If you lose, now all of a sudden it’s a different deal.
“But I’m happy for the kids. It’s nice to get it off their back and now we keep playing. Let’s see how we build on this.”
Arkansas has an excellent chance to start a winning streak with a struggling Oklahoma coming to town Saturday night and then a full week off before what will assuredly be an emotionally charged game against Kentucky in Lexington.
(READ NEXT: Check out our in-depth preview of the Arkansas vs Oklahoma game)
NCAA Tournament Picture
Of course, the natural question is whether or not it will be too little, too late to make a difference in Arkansas’ postseason outlook.
Heading into Wednesday’s game, the Razorbacks weren’t among the “First Four Out” or even “Next Four Out” in the latest NCAA Tournament projection from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. The renowned bracketologist did label them as “considered,” but has them at No. 85 overall.
The win over Georgia likely didn’t move the needle much. Arkansas moved up three spots to No. 54 in the NET rankings, while the Bulldogs inched closer to falling out of Quadrant 1 range (top 30 for home games) by dropping two spots to No. 29. That said, it is currently the Razorbacks’ second Q1 win of the year, joining the Michigan win at Madison Square Garden.
In what is a blessing and a curse, eight of Arkansas’ remaining SEC games are Q1 opportunities as of Thursday. The other four are Q2.
While that means there is no real risk of a “bad” loss and plenty of chances for resume-building wins, it also means there aren’t any easy wins. Even South Carolina, the lone team still winless in SEC play, checks in at No. 90 in the NET and Arkansas faces the Gamecocks on the road.
One positive of the brutal nature of the SEC is that the Razorbacks’ NET ranking should take care of itself if they can win enough games.
In all likelihood, whether or not John Calipari makes the NCAA Tournament in his first season in Fayetteville will come down to Arkansas reaching a certain number of SEC wins.
It’s widely believed that an 8-10 mark — like the one it had two years ago when it reached the Sweet 16 — would guarantee an at-large bid from what some consider the best and deepest league in college basketball history.
However, even before the start of conference play, Calipari advocated multiple times that seven SEC wins should be enough. Looking at it from Arkansas’ perspective, that may be true because in that case it’d potentially have four Q1 wins and a perfect record in Quadrants 2-4.
At 18-13 (7-11 SEC), the Razorbacks would at the least be in the bubble conversation heading to Nashville for the SEC Tournament.
Can Arkansas Basketball Get There?
Establishing a required win total is one thing; actually getting there is an entirely different one.
The good news for Arkansas is that it has only the 10th-toughest remaining schedule in the SEC, according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index. The bad news is that it’s also the 10th-toughest remaining schedule in all of Division I.
In wake of the Georgia win and Boogie Fland injury news, five CBS Sports college basketball insiders took a stab at predicting the Razorbacks’ final SEC record and their guesses ranged from 2 to 5 – the most optimistic being Gary Parrish and Cameron Salerno.
Matt Norlander, who has accurately predicted Arkansas’ lack of regular-season success two years in a row now, has the Razorbacks winning just three more games. Of course, he might be under the impression that their depth problems are more dire than they actually are:
(Arkansas still has an eight-man rotation even without Boogie Fland, with all eight playing at least 11 minutes in the Georgia win.)
Mistake aside, that level of pessimism is understandable, but the advanced metrics actually paint a slightly better picture for Arkansas basketball.
As seen below, ESPN’s BPI favors the Razorbacks in only three more games, but three others are in that toss-up range of 45-49%. KenPom, meanwhile, has Arkansas as the favorite in four games with two more toss-ups as a slight underdog.
Winning all six of those games, plus potentially pulling off an upset somewhere along the way, seems to be the best recipe – but it’s still a longshot.
Despite having Arkansas ranked No. 54, which is three spots behind the BPI, KenPom actually gives it a slightly better chance of reaching those necessary win totals for the NCAA Tournament.
Using the analytics site’s game-by-game percentages, Best of Arkansas Sports was able to calculate that the Razorbacks have a 30.0% chance of finishing 7-11 or better. The odds go down to 12.3% for an 8-10 or better SEC record.
Doing the same with the ESPN BPI projections, Arkansas has a 27.3% chance of reaching at least seven conference wins and a 10.9% chance of getting to eight.
Here’s a full breakdown of the numbers…
Game-by-Game Projections
| Game | ESPN BPI | KenPom |
|---|---|---|
| Jan. 25 – vs. Oklahoma | 60.2% | 59% |
| Feb. 1 – at Kentucky | 19.1% | 18% |
| Feb. 5 – at Texas | 22.6% | 30% |
| Feb. 8 – vs. Alabama | 29.8% | 30% |
| Feb. 12 – vs. LSU | 65.6% | 71% |
| Feb. 15 – at Texas A&M | 18.5% | 19% |
| Feb. 19 – at Auburn | 6.6% | 4% |
| Feb. 22 – vs. Missouri | 56.1% | 53% |
| Feb. 26 – vs. Texas | 45.9% | 57% |
| March 1 – at South Carolina | 49.5% | 47% |
| March 4 – at Vanderbilt | 37.2% | 36% |
| March 8 – vs. Mississippi State | 46.4% | 46% |
Potential SEC Records for Arkansas Basketball
| Final 12 Games | Final SEC Record | Likelihood (BPI) | Likelihood (KenPom) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-12 | 1-17 | 0.18% | 0.14% |
| 1-11 | 2-16 | 1.71% | 1.37% |
| 2-10 | 3-15 | 6.89% | 5.95% |
| 3-9 | 4-14 | 16.05% | 14.74% |
| 4-8 | 5-13 | 23.91% | 23.25% |
| 5-7 | 6-12 | 23.94% | 24.54% |
| 6-6 | 7-11 | 16.45% | 17.69% |
| 7-5 | 8-10 | 7.77% | 8.72% |
| 8-4 | 9-9 | 2.49% | 2.90% |
| 9-3 | 10-8 | 0.53% | 0.62% |
| 10-2 | 11-7 | 0.068% | 0.081% |
| 11-1 | 12-6 | 0.0049% | 0.0054% |
| 12-0 | 13-5 | 0.00014% | 0.00012% |
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