The No. 23 Arkansas Razorbacks closed out their non-conference schedule with a 30-point victory over Oakland – the very team that knocked John Calipari out of the NCAA Tournament in his last game as Kentucky’s head coach a season ago.
Oakland was third in a stretch of three consecutive relatively lowly-rated mid-major opponents for the Hogs. The last time they faced a quality opponent was their thrilling victory over Michigan at Madison Square Garden.
The Hogs went 11-2 in non-conference play, a fine record, though it’s notable that their only two losses were against two of the three teams they faced that are not currently considered Quad 3 or Quad 4 opponents: No. 25 Baylor and No. 22 Illinois.
This lands Arkansas 1-2 in Q1 games and 10-0 against Q3 and Q4 opponents heading into SEC play. While that isn’t stellar as far as metrics are concerned, the Hogs will have no shortage of opportunities to improve their resume between now and tournament season.
They don’t currently have a single Q3 or Q4 game remaining on their schedule. To start conference play, five of Arkansas’ first six games are Q1 opportunities, and the other game is a home game against Ole Miss – a team that would become Q1 if they climb into the top 30 in the NET from its current ranking of No. 42.
First up on their brutal conference schedule is a game in Knoxville against No. 1 Tennessee. This will be only the third time in Arkansas history that the Hogs have played a true road game against the No. 1 team in the AP poll.
The top-ranked Volunteers finished their non-conference slate 13-0, landing them at No. 2 in the NET rankings and No. 4 in KenPom’s rankings. They also have a pair of impressive wins away from home against Top 25 teams – the same two teams that beat Arkansas earlier this season – Baylor and Illinois.
This matchup will be a revenge game of sorts for former Tennessee big man Jonas Aidoo. The 6-foot-11 forward spent three years in Knoxville before transferring to Arkansas to play for Calipari.
Aidoo is a player Barnes notably wanted to keep heading into the 2024-25 season, so his transfer surprised a lot of Volunteer insiders at the time. This was perhaps the first win Calipari secured over Barnes as the Head Hog.
While Aidoo is sure to have a little extra juice in this matchup, assistant coach Kenny Payne noted that it will be important for him to not be overhyped and to be careful with foul trouble as the Hogs are likely to need him against this long, athletic Volunteer squad.
What to Expect from Tennessee
The Volunteers are led by fifth-year senior transfer Chaz Lanier. Standing at 6-foot-4, Lanier is currently second in the SEC in points per game with 19.6 on 46% from long range. He’s also tallying 3.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.2 steals per game in his 29 minutes of action.
Tennessee has three other players averaging between 10.5-12.0 points per game, but Lanier is clearly the head of the scoring attack. The senior guard is averaging six more shot attempts per game than the next closest player.
The leader of the offense, however, is senior guard Zakai Zeigler (5-foot-9). The true senior is in his fourth season at Tennessee, and he’s led the entire SEC in assists per game each of the last three seasons. This year, the undersized guard is putting up a career-high 8.1 assists per game to go along with 11.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.8 steals per game.
He’s also, however, shooting a career-low from long range at just under 29% from beyond the arc. Tennessee as a whole may look down offensively when only considering scoring and counting stats, but they’re still in the top half of the league in effective field goal percentage (a metric that considers the value of 3-pointers and 2-pointers differently). For reference, Arkansas is No. 3 in the SEC in eFG% behind only Texas and Auburn.
The matchup between the experience of Zeigler and the youth of Boogie Fland holds potential to be must-see TV. Fland is currently sitting second in the SEC in assists with 6.2 per game while also contributing more significantly to the scoring column for the Hogs and shooting over 40% from long range.
Jordan Gainey (6-foot-4, Sr) and Igor Milicic (6-foot-10, Sr) round out the top four scorers for the Volunteers. All four seniors are scoring upwards of 10.5 points per game, but Gainey is the second-biggest threat from beyond the arc behind Lanier. He’s hitting 38% of his 3.8 attempts per game.
Milicic, on the other hand, leads the team with 8.2 rebounds per game – including 2.1 offensive rebounds per contest. He’s shooting over 62% from inside the arc and makes up one of a three-headed monster in the paint for Tennessee.
“First thing is their physicality,” said coach Payne. “One of the toughest teams in the country… They’re going to hit you. They’re going to set good, strong, hard screens and you have to be able to deal with it. We have to hit first and not be hit.”
One of the other two notable Tennessee big men is fellow starting forward, Felix Okpara. Standing at 6-foot-11, he averages 6.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, and a team-leading 1.4 blocks per game. The starting duo of Okpara and Milicic poses an interesting personnel decision for Calipari. He’s been starting Karter Knox and Adou Thiero at the forward positions, but Trevon Brazile might be better suited to help deal with the size of the Volunteers.
The Vols’ trio rounds out with 6-foot-9 Cade Phillips. The sophomore forward comes off the bench for roughly 18 minutes per game and contributes 6.8 points and 4.2 rebounds – including 2.0 offensive rebounds per game.
Cameron Carr (6-foot-5, Guard) reportedly left the team abruptly in late December, but would have been another notable player to mention. He had been filling out the No. 10 spot in the rotation nicely for Coach Barnes. That’s the same 10th spot that Calipari actively avoided when constructing his roster this offseason.
His absence hasn’t much affected Tennessee as they already had a deep roster with several different players hovering around 10 MPG at the back of the rotation, but Tennessee coach Justin Gainey clarified, “nothing changes from a preparation standpoint,” with Carr’s abrupt absence.
However, the Vols also had yet another season-altering departure from J.P. Estrella, this time due to injury. The 6-foot-11 sophomore missed three games with the injury before announcing he would be having season-ending surgery in late November.
The absence of both Estrella and Carr hasn’t impacted Tennessee enough to force any losses, but it certainly could give Arkansas an upper hand if its center trio is healthy – along with Thiero playing bigger than his 6-foot-8 frame might indicate at times.
Even if all the absences do is alter the Volunteers’ chemistry and typical practice schedule, a small difference could be all a team like the Hogs needs to capitalize in a matchup like this. In this one particular instance, Calipari appears to have preemptively secured a slight tactical advantage over Barnes’ Vols by going with his shortened-rotation strategy.
Other notable members of Tennessee’s rotation:
- Jahmai Mashack (6-4, Sr) | 6.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.4 SPG, 32% 3P
- Darlinstone Dubar (6-6, Sr) | 4.8 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 29% 3P
What to Expect from Arkansas
The Hogs have been on cruise control lately – in the best way possible. Sometimes that can be a bad thing if a team starts sleepwalking against inferior opponents, but Arkansas has been clicking on nearly all cylinders as they’ve put away each of their last six opponents – including wins over two Power 4 teams in Michigan and Miami – by an average margin of victory of 17.2 points.
Of course, this is bolstered by each of the last three wins coming by 25 or more points, but it’s still encouraging to see Arkansas beat the lower-ranked teams the way they’re expected to. Many metrics – including the NET rankings – take margin of victory into consideration, especially this early in the season.
Through the non-conference slate, Arkansas has established a dynamic duo of five-star freshman guard Boogie Fland, and former Kentucky transfer Adou Thiero.
Fland continues to provide what the Hogs need from him in the lead ball-handler role he’s been thrust into as a true freshman. He can still be a bit aggressive or out of position at times defensively and struggles with efficiency inside the arc at times, but Hog fans have little to complain about from the potential 2025 NBA Draft lottery pick.
With the lingering wrist injury to Johnell Davis, Fland has had to step up even more than expected at the point guard position. Davis missed each of the last two games for the Hogs, but sources indicate to Best of Arkansas Sports that the absences lean more towards precautionary as his offseason injury was not healing as quickly as expected rather than some sort of event that re-injured the wrist. The idea is for the guard to be close to 100% come SEC play rather than push through two relatively lesser opponents at less than 100%.
Thiero, however, has become the true X-factor for Arkansas. Many expected a step up from the transfer forward this season, but not many expected him to be in clear contention for the All-SEC First Team at this point in the season.
He plays with a level of speed, athleticism, and physicality that Arkansas is going to have to rely on heavily against Tennessee – and likely many other SEC squads. He had a two-game stretch of bad free throw shooting midway through the non-conference schedule, as well as a couple of games at less than 100% due to an illness, but has otherwise been nearly flawless in his production during his minutes on the court.
“We have a guy that is playing the four position right now that’s playing like one of the best players in college basketball in Adou Thiero,” Coach Payne said. “Thiero’s 6-7, 6-8, athletic. He plays bigger than what he is, probably plays [like he’s] 6-10.”
Coach Calipari added that Thiero has learned to be aggressive on the catch this season, starting his relentless pursuit of the basket often before the ball has even hit his hands. Calipari noted that rules surrounding offensive fouls have changed over the past few years (Hog fans wouldn’t happen to know anything about that in the form of a former big man named Jaylin Willimas, would they?), saying that Thiero is much more likely to draw fouls in the paint and that he’s physical enough to finish through the contact more often than not.
When the Hogs were struggling against Illinois, it was Thiero that started being more aggressive and taking it upon himself to bring the team back into the game. Expect nothing less if Arkansas finds themselves struggling early on the road against the No. 1 team in the country. Tennessee’s length is sure to impact the Hogs’ offensively, but Thiero individually could keep them alive long enough for them to make a run.
What to Watch in Arkansas vs Tennessee
Tennessee is always a well-coached team that shares the ball well under coach Rick Barnes. This season, they’re notably the slowest offense in the SEC with only 56.2 points per game and roughly 66.6 possessions per 40 minutes (No. 16 in the SEC).
However, the Volunteers also boast the second highest assisted field goal rate in the conference as well with just under 60% of all their made field goals coming from assists. By comparison, Arkansas scores 71.6 PPG, but only 54% (No. 9 in SEC) of their made shots come from assists.
Early in the season, the Hogs got off to dangerously slow starts against teams that did not allow them to force turnovers and push the ball in transition as much as they wanted to. This has steadily improved as the season has gone along, but Arkansas still plays with the third fastest pace of play in the SEC and clearly prefers to run the fastbreak over fighting for buckets in the halfcourt. That’s something Tennessee can usually force its opponents to do.
Shared Non-Conference Opponents
Arkansas and Tennessee have faced off against the same two high-major teams so far in their non-conference schedules: Baylor and Illinois.
Arkansas lost to Baylor 72-67 in their second game of the season on Nov 9 before suffering their worst outing of the season against the Illini on Thanksgiving Day, losing 90-77 and facing a 17-point deficit early in the first half.
Tennessee defeated the Bears 77-62 on a neutral court on Nov 22. They then squeaked by Illinois on the road on Dec 14 by a score of 66-64 in regulation. Illinois earned 36 free throw attempts, but Tennessee’s aggressive defense was enough to hold off the otherwise stout offensive attack of the Illini.
In the two comparable matchups, Tennessee held both quality opponents to abysmal 3-point shooting at a combined 22% – including only 17% from Illinois. By comparison, the two teams shot 40% from long range against the Hogs – including a remarkable 48% as a team from the Illini.
The two teams also forced the Volunteers into only 16 total turnovers. Arkansas has six games this year where they forced their opponent into at least 16 turnovers, including their marquee win over Michigan.
Arkansas has been slowly and steadily improving as a half-court team offensively, but they’re going to have to be at their best in all facets of the game to stand a chance against the No. 1 team in the country.
Arkansas vs Tennessee Prediction
The Razorback have hit their stride as of late despite still not having played a full game with all nine rotation players healthy. All nine have appeared in a few games, but at least one has always been notably limited in their total minutes due to injury or illness.
However, Arkansas is going to have to play a perfect game on the road to defeat the Volunteers – and even then they might need some help from the Vols in the form of inefficient shooting or turnovers.
It’s important to remember that this will be the first SEC game for all the freshmen on the squad, though the presence of players like Thiero, Aidoo, and Davis (though his four years of experience did not come in road SEC environments) could help settle things down for the Hogs.
Shooting doesn’t often travel to road games as well as defense does, though Arkansas shot 48% from long range in their one true road game of the season – their SEC/ACC Challenge victory over Miami.
They also shot 39% against Michigan in Madison Square Garden and are currently shooting over 39% from distance as a team in their last eight games after starting the season closer to 33% over their first five.
Even with all of that being said, a great game from the Hogs could still end up in a single-digit loss to this Volunteer squad.
Tennessee wins, 70-67.
How to Watch Arkansas vs Tennessee
Date: Saturday, Jan. 4
Location: Thompson-Boling Arena (Knoxville, Tenn.)
Tipoff Time/TV: Noon CT (ESPN)
ESPN BPI: Tennessee is favored to win by 12.4 points
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Aidoo Making “Biggest Mistake of Life” Talk Overblown
Although Jonas Aidoo did plenty of good for the Volunteers, he wasn’t exactly feeling the love upon his exit eight months ago.
Despite averaging 11.4 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.8 blocks, which earned him second-team All-SEC honors and a spot on the SEC All-Defensive Team, some Tennessee basketball fans and quasi-media types weren’t sad to see him go.
Definitely count Caleb Calhoun of the Off the Hook YouTube show in that category.
Read the rest here:
Assistant Kenny Payne looks ahead to Arkansas vs Tennessee:
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