For the second consecutive season, Arkansas has fallen to 0-2 to start SEC play after leaving many questions unanswered in its non-conference slate.
After appearing to turn a corner in their massive neutral site win against Michigan and dominating the next three teams they faced, the Razorbacks have now been “manhandled” – as head coach John Calipari phrased it – on the road by No. 1 Tennessee and then beaten by double digits on their home court in their last outing against No. 23 Ole Miss.
With 14 SEC teams currently ranking inside the top 50 of the NET rankings, including both Tennessee (No. 3) and Ole Miss (No. 28), something must change in a hurry for the Hogs or things could get ugly fast. Many observers feel like a double-digit road win for the Gators could be in the cards, and indeed Florida is a 5.5 point favorite according to Odds Assist.
A stagnant offense has been one of the biggest culprits for the poor performances in both games, though it doesn’t help that both the Vols and the Rebels rank in the top 25 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.
There’s no rest for the weary, however, since Arkansas welcomes in another extremely tough opponent for its next tilt. It may happen a bit later than expected because of the snow blanketing much of the South, but the No. 8 Florida Gators are traveling to Fayetteville to face the Hogs on Saturday in Bud Walton Arena. Tipoff is currently scheduled for 3 p.m. CT and the game will be televised on ESPN.
Florida is a big, physical team that plays well in all aspects of the game. The Gators are currently ranked in the top five in both KenPom and the NET Rankings along with being an AP Top 10 team. The Hogs will be looking to avoid dropping to 0-3 in conference play for the second consecutive season.
Read post-game coverage here:
What to Expect from Florida Basketball
The Gators are currently the top rebounding team in the country, averaging 43.2 rebounds per game. This includes 14.0 offensive rebounds and six different players averaging at least 4.7 total rebounds per game.
Oftentimes, when a team dominates the glass the way Florida has so far this season, they will have one dominant rebounder leading the charge – think recent Calipari prospect Oscar Tshiebwe. The last Kentucky squad that featured Tshiebwe was No. 9 in the country in rebounding.
However, the Gators don’t have a single player inside the top 75 in individual rebounds per game. They rebound as a team, and that makes them arguably even more dangerous than a team featuring one rebounding machine such as Tshiebwe.
The main culprit on the glass for Florida is 6-foot-11 sophomore Alex Condon, who ranks exactly No. 75 in RPG. The versatile forward is leading the team with 8.0 rebounds per game to go along with 10.9 points and 1.5 blocks across 25 minutes of action. He’s also dangerous from beyond the arc, hitting 40% of his 3-pointers this season.
The second-leading rebounder is another 6-foot-11 sophomore, Rueben Chinyelu. Despite starting all 15 games this season, the powerful big man has played only 18.9 minutes per game. This makes his 7.3 rebounds per game even more impressive.
He’s currently averaging 15.5 rebounds per 40 minutes, barely behind the 16.3 mark set by Tshiebwe a few seasons ago, but his offensive limitations prevent him from playing full starter minutes at times. Jonas Aidoo will have his work cut out for him against Chinyelu, but he might be able to show off some of the midrange jumpshots Hog fans haven’t seen much of this season and stretch the Gator big man away from the paint a bit.
“I think our [big] guys are skilled, so we can take advantage of one or two of those guys on the perimeter if they get some open looks,” Chuck Martin said. “At the end of the day, this is one of those SEC games that comes down to toughness. You gotta buckle down, be tough, physical, rebound the ball and limit your turnovers, limit your mistakes.”
A pair of 6-foot-2 seniors lead Florida on offense. Walter Clayton Jr. paces his squad in both points (17.5) and assists (3.9) per game while also contributing 3.3 rebounds and 1.1 steals per game on 37% from long range.
Clayton has already tallied 25 points or more five different times this season, including a 33-point explosion two games ago when the Gators narrowly lost to Kentucky on the road – their only loss of the season.
FAU transfer Alijah Martin is the second guard pacing his team in scoring with 16.1 points per game. Amazingly, despite his 6-foot-2, 185-pound frame, Martin is also averaging 5.7 rebounds – including 1.2 offensive rebounds – and 1.9 steals per game.
While Clayton is the leading shot-taker and Condon provides a different level of versatility, Martin is the type of player who could win a game for his team in a variety of ways. He can quickly make things difficult for the Hogs if they don’t give him enough respect as a rebounder and playmaker on both ends of the court.
The final member of the starting five – the same five that has started every single game this season for the Gators – is Will Richard, a 6-foot-5 senior. Richard is contributing 13.4 points and 2.1 assists per game, and he’s also one of the six players averaging at least 4.7 boards, tallying 5.0 rebounds and 1.6 offensive rebounds per game.
Notable bench players:
- Thomas Haugh (6-9, So) | 21.9 MPG, 7.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.3 APG, 41% 3P
- Denzel Aberdeen (6-5, Jr) | 19.0 MPG, 7.6 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1.8 APG, 39% 3P
- Sam Alexis (6-9, Jr) | 13.8 MPG, 5.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 2.0 ORPG
- Urban Klavzar (6-1, Fr) | 10.3 MPG, 3.1 PPG
- Olivier Rioux (7-9, Fr) | Will become tallest player in NCAA history when/if he takes the court
What to Expect from Arkansas Basketball
Heading into a game against the No. 1 rebounding team in the country, Arkansas has to be ready on the glass.
The Hogs showed a lack of presence on the interior against the Volunteers two games ago. Throughout most of that game, Arkansas played solid defense until the first shot was taken, but they gave up more offensive rebounds than they had defensive rebounds in the blowout loss.
This problem was somewhat remedied against Ole Miss, but could be a major storyline to watch against Florida considering its impressive rebounding numbers. The Gators recently defeated Tennessee 73-43 and outrebounded the Vols – the same team that nearly doubled the Hogs’ rebound total in their matchup – 56-37, including grabbing 16 offensive rebounds.
Jonas Aidoo has to increase his aggression and essentially dominate the paint as Arkansas’ most physical big man, but it’s going to take the effort of the entire team to negate Florida’s twin tower look and exceptional rebounding ability.
Zvonimir Ivisic and Trevon Brazile have to live under the rim in their minutes. Adou Thiero and Billy Richmond are generally good rebounders, as is Johnell Davis at times from the guard position.
It’s worth noting that in addition to coming off his best game in a while, Davis also played with a lot of heart when he went up against his former coach (Dusty May) and a former teammate (Vladislav Goldin) in the Michigan game last month. Facing another former teammate, Alijah Martin, could add an extra edge Saturday. “Nelly’s been really good and informative in terms of what type of player he is, the things he thought he did well at FAU,” Arkansas assistant Chuck Martin said on Saturday. “So I think that’s been helpful, just having insight from a former teammate that can help us in the scouting report.”
Overall, it’s going to take a renewed focus and effort from all five players to limit the Gators to one shot attempt per possession as often as possible.
Boogie Fland – the clear offensive leader of this squad – is now 10 of 35 (29%) from the field in SEC play, including only 3 of 17 (18%) from long range. Struggling to shoot is one thing, but doing so at a 17.5-shot-per-game pace quickly becomes detrimental to a team.
It’s important for Fland to not lose his confidence as an offensive player but perhaps finding that confidence in ways other than forcing up long-range shots could yield better results. Of course, it’s not entirely fair to blame Fland for getting up shots in a hurry – especially 3-pointers – when his team is losing late in a game. His shot selection has been questionable at times even early in the last two contests.
One of the best ways to get a shooter back in rhythm – and this includes DJ Wagner, Davis, Brazile and Ivisic, who are now a combined 16 of 45 (36%) from the floor and 5 of 26 (19%) from deep in SEC play – is to get to the free throw line and see a few shots go through the net.
However, Arkansas currently ranks dead last in the SEC and outside the top 260 teams in the country in free throw attempts per game. This shows a lack of aggression around the rim from virtually everyone other than Thiero, who averages 6.1 attempts per game.
Fland and Wagner are both more finesse players rather than contact-seekers. Brazile and Ivisic are both stretch bigs that live on the perimeter. Davis and Knox seem to be lacking confidence to put the ball on the court and create any sort of play. This leads to a severe lack of attempts from the charity stripe, potentially causing issues for the Hogs down the road.
What to Watch in Arkansas vs Florida
While there are several factors contributing to Arkansas basketball’s poor start to the conference season, with one of the most overlooked factors being the apparent lack of an on-court leader from a vocal perspective.
Boogie Fland has played well above the expectations of most freshmen guards despite some efficiency struggles, and Adou Thiero has attempted to put the team on his back at times with a relentless attack on the rim, but neither seems to be taking the role of “coach on the court” when things start going poorly for the Hogs.
Dane Bradshaw – the color analyst on the ESPN2 broadcast of the Arkansas vs Ole Miss game – noted as much live on the air.
“When I look at Arkansas, I’m not really sure who the alpha dog is in the locker room and the voice,” said Bradshaw, who played at Tennessee in the mid-2000s. “It seems like you have some quiet guys – which doesn’t mean they’re not great teammates – but I’m not really sure who that voice and leader in the locker room to hold things together is.”
There seems to be an all-around lack of on-court leadership from anyone on the court or on the bench. During the game, the Rebel bench was in full unison counting out passes on offense or urging the defensive effort on the other end of the court while the Arkansas bench remained radio-silent for much of the contest.
It’s hard to place this blame on one specific player when none of them have visibly taken over this role, but DJ Wagner being the starting point guard on Calipari’s last team at Kentucky makes him a prime candidate to be that coach on the court.
He – along with virtually every other player on Arkansas’ roster – seems to prefer to lead by example. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it helps tremendously when a team also has a vocal leader on the court. Recent examples for high-achieving Razorback teams include Jaylin Williams and Anthony Black.
Wagner seems like one of the better candidates to be that leader, but it can be hard to take over a role like that midway through the season, especially when a player is shooting poorly like Wagner has over his last two games. His focus is likely more on his own game than the effort or execution of the team as a whole.
Beyond the X’s and O’s, someone has to light a fire under this Arkansas basketball squad. The offense can be too stagnant, and the defense doesn’t always have the pride it needs to have. Where that fire comes from, whether it’s Calipari or one of the players on the court, isn’t as important as it existing at all. Without, very bad times indeed could be around the corner.
Game Prediction
The Hogs are 15-27 all-time against the Gators, though they’ve won three of the last four matchups, including two in a row in Bud Walton Arena. However, Arkansas has to show up ready to play the best game it’s played this season just to keep from getting embarrassed on its homecourt against this No. 8 Florida squad.
Fland will continue to do everything in his power to push this team offensively, but whether or not his shots are falling on his home court could be the difference between a competitive contest and a third consecutive loss for the Hogs.
Thiero will also shoulder his fair share of the weight, but Arkansas has to find its vocal leader and get more consistent production from its role players. As Calipari noted after the Ole Miss loss, Arkansas can’t afford for any of its nine key players to play poorly.
“We’re the type of team [where] everybody’s got to play well,” Calipari said. “All nine got to give us something. They don’t have to play out of their minds, but they can’t play poorly.”
Role players tend to play better at home, but the Hogs are likely going to need 6-7 guys to play “out of their minds” to even give themselves a chance against Florida.
Florida wins, 81-75.
How to Watch Arkansas vs Florida
Date: Saturday, Jan. 11
Location: Bud Walton Arena (Fayetteville, Ark.)
Tipoff Time/TV: 3 p.m. CT (ESPN)
ESPN BPI: Florida is favored to win by 2.5 points.
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