Since Arkansas was knocked out in the regionals for a second straight year, one topic has dominated all others: the future of assistant coach Nate Thompson.
A very vocal segment of the fan base is ready for head coach Dave Van Horn to move on from Thompson after his seventh year as the Razorbacks’ hitting coach.
The frustrations are understandable. Arkansas’ offense sputtered for much of the year and the bats went ice cold against a soft-tosser in the season-ending loss to SEMO. It was an all-too-familiar feeling for fans hungry for a national title.
Those fans probably didn’t like what Van Horn had to say when asked about his confidence in Thompson following the season.
“He’s ate up with the offense and analytics,” Van Horn said. “He really tries to train a swing. He does a great job. Nobody works harder than him at it.”
However, his response to the first part of that question — which was about a potential philosophical change to the offense moving forward — was more enlightening than some may realize.
Clarifying Van Horn’s Comment
What Dave Van Horn said, though, has seemingly been misconstrued by a chunk of the fan base. Here’s a refresher for those who missed it or might have forgotten:
“We’ve got to get a little better athlete,” Van Horn said. “We can’t just have eight guys that hit homers. I like guys that hit doubles and I like guys that hit homers, but you’ve got to have some guys that can run, too. You’ve got to be able to create some offense the days the wind’s blowing in or they’re really good on the mound and you’re having trouble making contact. That’s something that we want to do, and we’re trying to get the right players.”
Some have taken that answer as Van Horn blaming his players for the Razorbacks’ 1-2 showing in the Fayetteville Regional rather than taking ownership.
Better athletes?! You regularly sign top-5 recruiting classes!
The problem with such an argument is that’s not what he was saying at all. He was simply giving a thoughtful answer (which he does better than most college coaches) to a question about how he may consider changing the offense moving forward.
Van Horn was referring to implementing more small ball so they can manufacture more runs instead of relying solely on the long ball. That requires different kids of players, similar to how when a football team shifts from “three yards and a cloud of dust” to an Air Raid system.
The Razorbacks tried to bring in some of these kinds of guys last year, but saw their top four position players — shortstops Aidan Miller, Walker Martin and Nazzan Zanetello, and outfielder Kendall George — selected within the first 52 picks of last summer’s MLB Draft. They also brought in Ty Wilmsmeyer as a transfer from Missouri who was in a similar mold, but he didn’t pan out like they hoped.
That quartet of high school players have now combined to play in 160 minor league games and produce 55 total stolen bases. That’s more stolen bases than the Razorbacks had as a team this season…and in 2023…and in 2022…and in 2021.
George was a particularly big loss in that department, as he was considered the fastest prep player in last year’s draft and drew comparisons to Vanderbilt’s Enrique Bradfield. Sure enough, he already has 35 steals in 65 career professional games.
The last time Arkansas ranked in the top half of the SEC in stolen bases was 2019. That team also ranked 17th nationally in scoring at 7.4 runs per game. The Razorbacks have ranked 93rd, 57th and 164th in that category the last three years.
It’s unlikely that Van Horn completely shifts to a small-ball style of offense, but it sounds like he wants to use it more in 2025 and at least complement it with the power bats Arkansas will inevitably deploy.
Should Arkansas Fire Nate Thompson?
That is the question still at the forefront of many fans’ minds, even a week after the end of the 2024 season.
Despite the pitching also faltering down the stretch, Nate Thompson has taken a brunt of the blame for the disappointing early exit.
To be fair, the Razorbacks struggled mightily at the plate this season. They ranked 12th in the SEC and 164th nationally in scoring at 6.7 runs per game, plus were 10th or worse in the league in all three slash categories — batting average (.271 — 12th / 191st), on-base percentage (.381 — 10th / 160th) and slugging percentage (.453 — 11th / 130th).
However, the decision isn’t a simple one. As is typically the case, it’s too nuanced of a discussion to fit into 280-character tweets.
One such tweet that went viral during the loss to SEMO claimed that the Razorbacks had a .176 batting average over the last seven postseasons. There are numerous things wrong with that stat, the first of which is that the time frame includes the season prior to Thompson’s arrival in Fayetteville.
Since 2018, which was Thompson’s first season, Arkansas has played in 45 games across six NCAA Tournaments — the most in the country entering this weekend’s super regional round. Its batting average over that span is .279, so 103 points higher than the fake stat. (It’s .278 over the last seven postseasons, which includes the 2017 Fayetteville Regional won by a Missouri State team with Thompson on its staff.)
That may not blow you away, but among the 53 teams that have played at least 10 NCAA Tournament games since 2018 (entering the super regional round), that ranks 28th. To provide a more complete picture of the offense, let’s look at OPS — or On-base Plus Slugging — which is widely viewed as a superior stat to batting average because it incorporates other aspects, like walks and extra-base hits. The Razorbacks rank 19th in that group with an .853 OPS.
(For no reason whatsoever, Tennessee has a .265 batting average and .848 OPS in 29 postseason games over that span.)
The postseason stat that gets thrown around quite a bit and is actually accurate is about how the offense disappears in the final game of the year, regardless of which round of the NCAA Tournament it is.
In the Razorbacks’ last seven season-ending losses — which, again, includes the year prior to Thompson’s arrival — they have averaged just 2.1 runs and hit a paltry .145.
Those are undeniably terrible numbers, but it’s also worth noting that it’s expected for stats to be worse in losses because, well, if they were better, they probably would have turned into wins.
As for the season as a whole, here are Arkansas’ numbers under Thompson, excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season:
| Year | AVG (SEC / NCAA) | OBP (SEC / NCAA) | SLG (SEC / NCAA) | Scoring (SEC / NCAA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | .296 (2nd / 23rd) | .391 (2nd / 29th) | .475 (2nd / 13th) | 7.0 (3rd / 23rd) |
| 2019 | .298 (3rd / 21st) | .393 (3rd / 24th) | .489 (2nd / 10th) | 7.4 (3rd / 17th) |
| 2021 | .267 (10th / 144th) | .387 (1st / 40th) | .482 (2nd / 17th) | 7.7 (1st / 13th) |
| 2022 | .276 (12th / 153rd) | .380 (8th / 116th) | .481 (5th / 52nd) | 7.0 (6th / 93rd) |
| 2023 | .273 (12th / 189th) | .389 (10th / 100th) | .468 (11th / 97th) | 7.6 (5th / 57th) |
| 2024 | .271 (12th / 191st) | .381 (10th / 160th) | .453 (11th / 130th) | 6.7 (12th / 164th) |
The Razorbacks’ batting average has fallen off a cliff the last four years, but for the most part, they’ve still been able to score. Prior to this season, they had always been sixth or better in the SEC in terms of runs per game, including leading the league in 2021.
Last year’s team was only marginally better than this year in the three slash categories, but averaged nearly one more run per game and ranked fifth in the SEC because of its timely hitting. Its batting average with runners in scoring position was .287 – 14 points higher than its overall average. That’s a stark contrast to this year’s team, which hit 3 points worse in those scenarios (.268) than its overall average.
It’s perfectly reasonable to look at the trend over the last few seasons and come to the conclusion that Arkansas should try to find a new hitting coach. However, this isn’t Iowa football coach Kirk Ferentz keeping his son on staff as offensive coordinator despite his unit consistently being among the worst in the country.
Hunter Yurachek doesn’t have to step in and force Van Horn’s hand. Thompson has earned the right to get at least another year to help the Razorbacks implement the tweaked offensive approach laid out above.
It also shouldn’t be discounted that every time Van Horn has been asked about the consistency of his program since 2017, he’s cited the continuity on his coaching staff as a primary reason. That includes Thompson, who is also an ace recruiter.
Dispelling the “Nate Thompson Effect”
Another stat that has made the rounds on social media and message boards features a list of players and their year-to-year slash lines. Some of them are in the tweet below and more are included in this Hogville post.
While these numbers are technically accurate, there are a couple of problems with them.
First of all, they display state from cherry-picked players – a classic example of anecdotal evidence used to make a broad point. Secondly, several of them lack a significant amount of context.
For example, Jack Wagner (Tarleton State), Jared Sprague-Lott (Richmond) and Wehiwa Aloy (Sacramento State) each made significant jumps in competition.
When factoring in that, Sprague-Lott and Aloy were actually pretty good, albeit the latter struck out more than Arkansas probably would have liked. Even Wagner’s numbers were pretty comparable to what he did his last season at Kansas (.257/.385/.363) despite getting sporadic playing time.
Also, Peyton Holt’s batting average dropped quite a bit, but he had twice as many at bats this season (meaning a much larger sample size) and he still posted an impressive .919 OPS. The same happened to Ben McLaughlin, but his OPS actually increased by 8 points. The tweet and post both mention Diggs’ injury, which is certainly relevant, as is the fact that Jayson Jones was far from a regular player.
To determine if there actually is a “Nate Thompson Effect” that results in players getting worse under his leadership, Best of Arkansas Sports examined all 24 regulars during the Thompson era who played multiple seasons for the Razorbacks. We also looked at the 14 Division I transfers over that span.
(The transition from JUCO to Arkansas was not included in this breakdown because it’s such a significant increase in competition, there is no value in comparing the stats. We also excluded the shortened 2020 season because it was only 16 games and all non-conference play.)
What we found was that the multi-year Razorbacks’ OPS (again, a superior stat to batting average) from their first to last seasons in Fayetteville has actually increased by an average of 47 points. Only nine of the 24 players saw their OPS decrease, and that is without the aforementioned context.
For those who may argue that the average is skewed by the top end of that list, the median is also positive — an increase of 18 points.
It’s also worth noting that despite the team’s overall lower batting average the last few seasons, the individual player development is still happening because those nine players are pretty evenly spread out across Thompson’s tenure.
Only five of the 14 transfers saw their OPS increase from their previous season, but many of them were making a jump in competition. Trevor Ezell, Sprague-Lott, Michael Turner and Aloy were among those whose OPS dropped, but still had great-to-solid seasons for the Razorbacks.
The latter of those, Aloy, will also get a second season in Fayetteville. The only other Division I transfer to play two seasons with Arkansas baseball was Jace Bohrofen and his OPS increased by 280 points between his first and second year with the Razorbacks.
Multi-Year Razorbacks under Nate Thompson
| Player | AVG/OBP/SLG at Arkansas | OPS at Arkansas | OPS Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Kenley | *2017: .133/.278/.167 2018: .222/.389/.259 2019: .311/.428/.553 | .445 .648 .981 | (+.203) (+.333) Total: +.535 |
| Jace Bohrofen | 2022: .228/.333/.435 2023: .318/.436/.612 | .768 1.048 | +.280 |
| Carson Shaddy | *2017: .279/.383/.450 2018: .330/.426/.609 | .833 1.035 | +.202 |
| Christian Franklin | 2018: .274/.361/.413 2019: .274/.420/.544 | .774 .964 | +.190 |
| Braydon Webb | 2021: .174/.372/.413 2022: .283/.418/.542 | .785 .960 | +.175 |
| Eric Cole | *2017: .282/.349/.413 2018: .313/.407/.520 | .762 .927 | +.165 |
| Peyton Stovall | 2022: .295/.373/.425 2023: .253/.330/.939 2024: .340/.409/.535 | .798 .723 .944 | (-.075) (+.221) Total: +.146 |
| Casey Opitz | 2018: .222/.303/.296 2019: .243/.379/.311 2021: .257/.367/.346 | .599 .690 .713 | (+.091) (+.023) Total: +.114 |
| Cayden Wallace | 2021: .279/.369/.500 2022: .298/.387/.553 | .869 .940 | +.071 |
| Jalen Battles | 2021: .269/.371/.407 2022: .289/.364/.480 | .778 .844 | +.066 |
| Dominic Fletcher | *2017: .291/.356/.495 2018: .288/.338/.468 2019: .313/.385/.528 | .851 .806 .913 | (-.045) (+.107) Total: +.062 |
| Jared Gates | *2017: .246/.328/.418 2018: .241/.348/.421 | .746 .769 | +.023 |
| Kendall Diggs | 2022: .197/.367/.361 2023: .299/.436/.547 2024: .229/.346/.395 | .728 .983 .741 | (+.255) (-.242) Total: +.013 |
| Ben McLaughlin | 2023: .346/.442/.487 2024: .302/.447/.490 | .929 .937 | +.008 |
| Heston Kjerstad | 2018: .332/.419/.553 2019: .327/.400/.575 | .972 .975 | +.003 |
| Jacob Nesbit | 2019: .255/.333/.344 2021: .205/.341/.288 | .677 .629 | -.048 |
| Casey Martin | 2018: .345/.418/.556 2019: .286/.364/.548 | .974 .912 | -.062 |
| Zack Gregory | 2021: .245/.440/.412 2022: .212/.414/.363 | .852 .777 | -.075 |
| Brady Slavens | 2021: .284/.347/.560 2022: .255/.332/.523 2023: .277/.340/.488 | .907 .855 .828 | (-.052) (-.027) Total: -.079 |
| Matt Goodheart | 2019: .345/.444/.517 2021: .264/.386/.418 | .961 .867 | -.094 |
| Grant Koch | *2017: .264/.358/.498 2018: .245/.358/.375 | .856 .733 | -.123 |
| Robert Moore | 2021: .283/.384/.558 2022: .232/.374/.427 | .942 .801 | -.141 |
| Peyton Holt | 2023: .392/.489/.581 2024: .322/.412/.507 | 1.070 .919 | -.151 |
| Jax Biggers | *2017: .338/.423/.498 2018: .280/.388/.382 | .921 .770 | -.151 |
Additional context…
- Peyton Stovall’s OPS likely would have increased in his second season with Arkansas baseball, as well, had he not suffered and then played through a shoulder injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. It’s also not far fetched to think his OPS in 2024 would have been higher had he not missed the first few weeks of the season, all against non-conference foes, with a broken foot.
- Heston Kjerstad’s position on this list is a bit surprising, but it’s worth noting that he was slashing .448/.513/.791 when the 2020 season was canceled after 16 games. He likely wouldn’t have sustained his 1.304 OPS, but it’s not a stretch to think it could have stayed above 1.100, which would have given him a much bigger change in OPS.
- The same can be said for Christian Franklin, who was slashing .381/.467/.619 at the time of the shutdown. His OPS probably would have dropped from 1.086, but he probably would have improved on his previous season’s OPS of .964.
- Casey Martin is one of the most common examples people give of people regressing under Nate Thompson. While his batting average did dip quite a bit from his freshman to sophomore season, he still had a .912 OPS in 2019, which is still pretty good. His downward trend seemed to continue to start the 2020 season, but he was showing signs of turning things around about the time the season was canceled, at which point he was slashing .271/.386/.458 for an .844 OPS.
- Injuries likely played a significant role in the careers of Kendall Diggs, Matt Goodheart and Brady Slavens.
- It feels weird having Peyton Holt at the bottom of the list of Arkansas baseball players because he still posted a .919 OPS as essentially an every day player in 2024. He just had a whopping 1.070 OPS in more limited action the previous season. His at bats more than doubled from season to season, from 74 to 152.
- Ben McLaughlin’s at bats increased even more, from 78 to 202, but he still managed to post a higher OPS in 2024.
Transfers under Nate Thompson
| Player (prev. school) | AVG/OBP/SLG before/at Arkansas | OPS before/at Arkansas | OPS Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tavian Josenberger (Kansas) | 2022: .276/.357/.386 2023: .287/.414/.490 | .743 .904 | +.161 |
| Chris Lanzilli (Wake Forest) | 2021: .259/.325/.482 2022: .326/.424/.513 | .807 .937 | +.130 |
| Jared Wegner (Creighton) | 2022: .343/.459/.635 2023: .313/.457/.674 | 1.094 1.131 | +.037 |
| Cullen Smith (ETSU) | 2019: .304/.428/.473 2021: .263/.395/.519 | .901 .914 | +.013 |
| Jace Bohrofen (Oklahoma) | 2021: .252/.347/.408 2022: .228/.333/.435 | .755 .768 | +.013 |
| Trevor Ezell (SEMO) | 2018: .377/.442/.558 2019: .329/.436/.561 | 1.000 .997 | -.003 |
| Hudson White (Texas Tech) | 2023: .296/.397/.550 2024: .298/.396/.525 | .947 .921 | -.026 |
| Ross Lovich (Missouri) | 2023: .306/.383/.541 2024: .286/.408/.429 | .924 .837 | -.087 |
| Jared Sprague-Lott (Richmond) | 2023: .314/.440/.583 2024: .290/.425/.491 | 1.023 .916 | -.107 |
| John Bolton (Austin Peay) | 2022: .287/.384/.399 2023: .206/.358/.248 | .783 .606 | -.177 |
| Michael Turner (Kent State) | 2021: .337/.439/.640 2022: .323/.388/.502 | 1.079 .890 | -.189 |
| Wehiwa Aloy (Sacramento State) | 2023: .376/.427/.662 2024: .270/.355/.485 | 1.089 .840 | -.249 |
| Ty Wilmsmeyer (Missouri) | 2023: .311/.380/.482 2024: .214/.319/.256 | .862 .575 | -.287 |
| Jack Wagner (Tarleton State) | 2023: .337/.451/.692 2024: .260/.344/.500 | 1.143 .844 | -.299 |
Additional context…
- Hudson White finished the 2024 season with almost an identical batting average and on-base percentage as he had last year at Texas Tech. The difference in his OPS is because of his slugging percentage, which can be attributed to no longer playing in the Red Raiders’ home run-friendly ballpark.
- John Bolton’s OPS dropped quite a bit (177 points) with Arkansas baseball, but he wasn’t exactly a dangerous hitter at Austin Peay and earned the starting job at shortstop for defensive purposes.
- Even though Michael Turner’s OPS dropped by 189 points, his slash line of .323/.388/.502 was still incredibly impressive – especially considering he got nearly three times as many at bats at a much higher level of competition (MAC vs. SEC) and was a full-time catcher for the first time.
- Jack Wagner’s OPS fell by nearly 300 points, but at .844, it was still nearly 100 points higher than his last season at Kansas (2021).
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Nate Thompson was one of many topics discussed in the episode of Hoggin’ the Mic recapping the Fayetteville Regional:
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More coverage of Nate Thompson and Arkansas baseball from BoAS…
