Year After Predicting Hogs’ Doom, Economist Changes Tune

Wehiwa Aloy, Arkansas baseball, NCAA Tournament, Fayetteville Regional
photo credit: Craven Whitlow

The same Arkansas baseball fans who flooded Parker Fleming’s mentions last year have likely changed their tone heading into the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

You may know Fleming better by his Twitter handle “@statsowar” — where the economist and data scientist has nearly 40,000 followers and regularly finds himself in the crosshairs of various fan bases because of his dabbling in sports analytics.

In 2023, his projections gave the Razorbacks, despite being the No. 3 overall seed, just the 15th-best odds to make the College World Series and the second-worst odds (at 36.8%) among the 16 hosts of advancing to the super regionals.

According to his model, which he described as a “simple opponent-adjusted pitching and hitting model, with recency weighting,” the Fayetteville Regional was the toughest in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, based on the average rating of the three visiting schools.

Sure enough, TCU proved his numbers actually meant something. The Horned Frogs carried their hot play into Fayetteville and demolished the Razorbacks 20-5 and 12-4, ending the SEC champions’ season.

So, what does Fleming’s model say about this year?

2024 Fayetteville Regional Projections

Arkansas received a much more favorable draw this year as the No. 5 overall seed. Beginning Friday, it will host three truly regional teams, with Louisiana Tech as the 2 seed, Kansas State the 3 seed and Southeast Missouri State the 4 seed.

The Bulldogs are viewed as a potentially dangerous 2 seed, checking in at No. 29 in the RPI, but they are just No. 40 in the KPI, which factors in the strength of the opponent and score. The Wildcats are in that same range, with a KPI ranking of No. 43, while the Redhawks are at No. 169.

Fleming’s numbers reflect that. After hosting the toughest regional last year, Arkansas is hosting the fourth-easiest regional, according to Fleming’s model.

His model also gives the Razorbacks a 55.3% chance to win the Fayetteville Regional, which is significantly better than their odds last year. The odds for the remaining three teams break down as follows: Louisiana Tech at 21.1%, Kansas State at 17.3% and SEMO at 6.4%.

One thing worth noting is that SEMO has the fourth-best odds of advancing to the super regionals among the 4 seeds, trailing only Grand Canyon (Tucson Regional — 15.9%), Stetson (Tallahassee Regional — 7.8%) and VCU (Greenville Regional — 7.2%).

The Redhawks, at least according to Fleming’s model, are a tough first matchup for Arkansas, which could make Dave Van Horn’s looming decision about when to throw Hagen Smith that much more complicated.

Odds for Other NCAA Tournament Regionals

Here are the odds for each team to advance to the super regional in all 16 regionals in this year’s NCAA Tournament, courtesy of Parker Fleming (@statsowar)…

Knoxville Regional

  • (1) Tennessee – 74.2%
  • Southern Miss – 14.1%
  • Indiana – 10.4%
  • Northern Kentucky – 1.4%

Greenville Regional

  • (16) East Carolina – 42.1%
  • Wake Forest – 40.0%
  • Evansville – 9.7%
  • VCU – 7.2%

Lexington Regional

  • (2) Kentucky – 56.2%
  • Indiana State – 25.4%
  • Illinois – 13.8%
  • Western Michigan – 4.5%

Corvallis Regional

  • (15) Oregon State – 50.2%
  • UC-Irvine – 36.2%
  • Tulane – 9.0%
  • Nicholls – 4.7%

Bryan-College Station Regional

  • (3) Texas A&M – 67.6%
  • Texas – 19.0%
  • Louisiana – 13.4%
  • Grambling – <1%

Santa Barbara Regional

  • (14) UC-Santa Barbara – 42.5%
  • San Diego – 29.7%
  • Oregon – 21.6%
  • Fresno State – 6.2%

Chapel Hill Regional

  • (4) North Carolina – 67.0%
  • LSU – 21.2%
  • Wofford – 11.5%
  • LIU – <1%

Tucson Regional

  • (13) Arizona – 29.9%
  • Dallas Baptist – 29.5%
  • West Virginia – 24.6%
  • Grand Canyon – 15.9%

Fayetteville Regional

  • (5) Arkansas – 55.3%
  • Louisiana Tech – 21.1%
  • Kansas State – 17.3%
  • SEMO – 6.4%

Charlottesville Regional

  • (12) Virginia – 56.8%
  • Mississippi State – 31.9%
  • St. John’s – 10.1%
  • Penn – 1.3%

Clemson Regional

  • (6) Clemson – 47.6%
  • Coastal Carolina – 22.1%
  • Vanderbilt – 23.1%
  • High Point – 4.8%

Stillwater Regional

  • (11) Oklahoma State – 57.5%
  • Nebraska – 22.1%
  • Florida – 18.3%
  • Niagara – 2.2%

Athens Regional

  • (7) Georgia – 57.2%
  • Georgia Tech – 21.4%
  • UNCW – 16.8%
  • Army – 4.6%

Raleigh Regional

  • (10) North Carolina State – 43.3%
  • South Carolina – 40.1%
  • James Madison – 12.7%
  • Bryant – 3.9%

Tallahassee Regional

  • (8) Florida State – 46.4%
  • Alabama – 24.9%
  • UCF – 21.0%
  • Stetson – 7.8%

Norman Regional

  • Duke – 49.9%
  • (9) Oklahoma – 35.9%
  • UConn – 12.0%
  • Oral Roberts – 2.2%

College World Series Odds for Arkansas Baseball, Others

For those who might want to make a wager on the national champion, here are the odds from BetSaracen

1. Texas A&M: +500
2. Tennessee: +525
3. Arkansas: +750
4. Kentucky: +850
t-5. LSU: +1300
t-5. Wake Forest: +1300
t-7. Clemson: +1500
t-7. Florida State: +1500
t-7. North Carolina: +1500
t-10. Duke: +1750
t-10. Oregon State: +1750

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